Labor federal ministers will not be able to escape the Victorian by-election commentary this morning, although it is also true that voters in Victoria can mostly split the difference between state and federal politicians. That doesn’t mean that Labor strategists are not looking at the by-election results in Werribee and having a little moment though. Labor is feeling confident it will hold on to the seat, thanks to preferences, and at a reduced margin. That is a lot to do with the tired Allan state government, which has been seeing more voters start to express frustration at the hold up in projects, the state’s finances and the government’s seeming inability to address voter concerns.

Health minister Mark Butler was asked about the results on ABC radio this morning and said:

“I don’t pretend to have a detailed knowledge of Victorian state politics. This is a by-election for a state government that’s into its second decade. You know, it’s been a tough time in Victoria, as we all know, over the last several years, they had a very tough pandemic. It’s not surprising, when you look at the sweep of history, that a state government in its second decade cops a big hit in a by-election. These are these are state issues being played out down in Victoria. We’ve got a federal election coming up in the next few months. At some time, people will vote in that federal election, I’m confident on federal issues and a very clear choice between the cuts they’ll see by Peter Dutton and the sort of measures to strengthen Medicare you saw us release yesterday.”