Jim Chalmers says forecasting is difficult enough in stable times, let alone the batshit crazy times we are currently in. And that in general, no one actually knows what Trump will do (he implies that, not says it directly)

Chalmers:

The direct impact of these tariffs, we believe to be manageable in the Australian economy, and the difference between the 10% levied on Australian imports into the US versus some higher tariffs opposed by other countries as well.

You can see all of these considerations reflected in the treasury modelling that we have released an hour or two ago.

This modelling has been briefed to the opposition as well, consistent with the right protocols in this caretaker period.

What our modelling shows is that we expect there to be big hits to American growth and Chinese growth. And a spike in American inflation as well.

We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy, but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well