Should we look at this modelling through rose coloured glasses, or as preparing for the worse?

Jim Chalmers:

This is the treasury’s best estimate of the impacts, it’s effectively the central case as they consider it. But there’s more than the usual amount of uncertainty and volatility when it comes to forecasting economic updates.

This is the third update of the modelling, no doubt there will be more updates under a government of either political persuasion. What this represents is the treasury’s best efforts to get a handle on impact on growth in the US, China and in Australia.

The treasury expects the impact on the American economy and Chinese economy to be significant. They do expect a substantial spike in prices in the US, and they expect impacts on the Australian economy, although a bit more modest and manageable than what we’re seeing in other countries. We released this modelling publicly and we’ve ensured the opposition has been briefed on it, because we want to work together with the people of Australia to understand the risks here, so people can understand what’s going on, what our expectations are and how we’re responding.

We’re responding with cost of living help, lower income taxes, a more resilient economy, more diverse expert offering, more engagement with the world. It’s more important than ever the work we’ve been doing to engage with our own region. This is our best defence against global uncertainty.