Greg Jericho
Chief economist

In his press conference just now, Peter Dutton said this

JOURNALIST: Just on the potential of a looming recession, what sort of approach would the Coalition take? Would you rule out a large stimulus we saw during COVID under the Coalition and under Labor the GFC which people have attributed to avoiding a recession?

DUTTON: The Treasurer of our country is talking about the prospect of a recession or recession coming very quickly. That’s why he’s talking about 50 points reduction in interest rates. Unless he’s doing it for political reasons. But if he believes that it’s necessary to drop interest rates by 50 points in a month’s time, he’s telling Australians that there are difficult times ahead under Labor. That’s exactly what he’s doing.

Can I get a serious “what the utter hell??” First of all, these things are changing fast. On Friday the market was pricing in 4 rate cuts by the end of the year; by yesterday it was 5 cuts.

Chalmers yesterday talked about the prospect of rate cuts because that it what THE MARKET is anticipating. And why is it anticipating this? Because of Donald Trump. Blaming the ALP (or any political party) for what Donald Trump is doing to the entire global economy is rather incoherent.

Also does this mean a recession is coming? No – it means investors think Donald Trump is doing his best to kill the global economy and so as a result the RBA will cut rates to keep Australia’s economy from flatlining.

Suggesting a recession is coming is very foolish for any leader of a political party to suggest.