AFR Political editor Phil Coorey has the gas modelling the Coalition are using for their new gas plan.

You can read that story here.

Coorey reports:

Announced as the centrepiece of Dutton’s budget reply, the plan would effectively create a domestic gas reserve by forcing exporters operating out of Queensland to divert more of their uncontracted gas to the domestic market and away from the Asian spot markets.

Their foundational export contracts to countries such as Japan and South Korea would be quarantined from the plan.

Currently, about 450 to 500 petajoules of gas are directed to domestic use. Under the change, that will have to increase by 50 to 100 petajoules, or up to 10 per cent to 20 per cent, depending on seasonal demand. One petajoule can power about 45,725 homes for a year.

The aim is to decouple the domestic price from the international price by creating a glut of domestic gas and forcing down the price from $14 a gigajoule to $10 per gigajoule or less.

The policy was controversially altered to target existing gas fields because Dutton wants to be able to deliver price relief from as soon as the end of this year. If it depended on the development of new gas fields, that would be years away.

The modelling, prepared by Frontier Economics, confirms that gas exporters will be hit with a “gas security charge” to ensure they direct the requisite amount of extra gas into the domestic market to drive down the price.

So yes, it is agreed – we don’t have a gas shortage, because as the Coalition has worked out, we can target the gas in existing fields.