The Coalition’s acknowledgement that gas exports are responsible for gas supply issues in Australia is welcome. It’s a big and important shift, and the proposal for an export levy might just work.

But…there are plenty of buts!

Peter Dutton claims the policy will save 4 million residential customers 7% of their retail gas bill, by reducing the wholesale price from $14/GJ to $10/GJ.

Looking at AGL’s  2024-25 half-year report, AGL’s wholesale gas costs were $11.5/GJ of which $8.2/GJ was AGL’s cost for gas purchases (the rest ($3.3/GJ) was “haulage, storage and other.”).

So if AGL pays an average of $8.2/GJ for gas, it’s not clear that it will benefit from a reduction in the spot price to $10/GJ.

Still less clear is how much would be passed on to AGL’s retail customers. They pay an average of $38.8/GJ plus GST, meaning a 7% decrease would represent a saving of $3.0/GJ…were it to materialise.

Like a lot of energy policy, the devil will be in the detail, with customers and the climate not looking like big winners.