Sam has just asked me what seats the Coalition could lose.

And there are a few in the defend list the Coalition are worried about – but it doesn’t mean the seats are going to Labor.

Cowper and Wannon are facing very strong independent challenges.

Bradfield is considered a loss

The Liberals are fighting to retain Leichhardt, but think they will win back Ryan from the Greens

Gilmore is a potential win, as is Lyons, but Calare is still up in the air (the Nationals were including that in their win pile, but now are having to fight) and Monash is surprisingly still considered an open field.

Keep an eye on seats like McPherson on the Gold Coast – which is part of a two election strategy by community independents to turn that seat from Liberal heartland to independent and what happens to the LNP vote in Hinkler and Capricornia.