Greg Jericho
Chief Economist

Well, what a difference the desperation comes from polls so bad that you are worried you will not only lose an election, but lose your leadership as well.

Here’s was Peter Dutton on ABC730 after delivering his Budget Reply speech less than 3 weeks ago:

“I would love to introduce tax reform and tax cuts, but the Labor Party has racked up what we now see in the Budget papers of about $1.2 trillion of debt. Our plan is to reduce tax in another part of the family budget and that, of course, is in relation to the halving of the fuel excise.”

Ahhh gotta love those plans and worries about debt now.

On the weekend, the Liberal Party announced that it was resurrecting the old Low-Middle Income Tax Offset rebadged as the Cost-of-Living Tax Offset. It would be worth up to $1,200 a year and would cost $10bn.

This is more than the government’s proposed tax cuts, but crucially the LNP’s tax cut are only for one year, and then it is gone.  

This is the weird part because up till 2 days ago, the LNP was nagging on about the government’s spending causing interest rates to rise. Would not the LNP’s tax offset do that even more so? Well apparently, according the Liberal Party’s website no:

“Why is it a temporary measure? 

The Cost of Living Tax Offset will provide targeted and timely support for household budgets while we implement our positive plan to get inflation down and our economy back on track.”

Huh? Apparently because the new offset is temporary it won’t drive inflation. Sorry but this is not how inflation works. People don’t not spend more money now because they know a $1,200 tax cut is only for one year. At best they can say it won’t cause inflation now, however this gets us to the next part – the “targeted and timely support” bit. Because it is an offset, taxpayers will only get it at the end of next financial year – at which point the market is expecting there will have been 5 more interest rate cuts. Is that all that timely?

There is nothing wrong with the offset. It is targeted. The biggest tax cut in percentage terms goes to someone on $48,000. That is good. But why only temporary? Is the Liberal Party going to try the trick it did with the LMITO and cut it thus handing everyone a tax increase? And is it going to do that at the same time is end its “temporary” fuel excise cut?

In his budget in reply speech Peter Dutton said “Tuesday’s budget was one for the next five weeks, not one for the next five years.” Alas, the further the LNP seems to be looking is 12 months.