Readers of this blog would be aware of this given how much I bang on about it (and also write about in The New Daily) but a Redbridge poll published by News Corp shows that yup, Calare and Cowper are likely to go independent at this election, with Monash also a big independent possibility.

There is also Wannon to keep an eye on while we are on this line of thought.

Labor needs to keep an eye on Franklin – a big chance that goes independent, and Labor is also facing challenges in Dunkley, McEwen, the Greens are very confident in Wills, Macnamara is difficult and Gilmore is lineball.

It’s not just the nation polls – it is the vibe. There are going to be some upsets on 3 May. We’ll keep telling you what we learn.