The circular argument here is that the polls are wrong because they are small samples “like a thumb in the wind” Sharri Markson says. But she says they are wrong because the Coalition’s internal polling is showing something different.

So how is the internal polling, which uses the same methodology, different to being a ‘thumb in the wind? Is it a middle finger in the wind?

Polls show you the vibe. And yes, in 2019, the polls were wrong in terms of 2PP – but they were right on the primary vote. That was an election where the expectation was that Labor would win, but the primary vote showed that was a pipe dream. And Bill Shorten was an unpopular leader – which was also reflected in the polls.
Since then, there has been a lot of work done on polling and reputable pollsters publish their methodology through the Australian Polling Council. You can see how they poll, the questions they ask and whether there was any potential leading questions.

The most likely outcome at this point shows that a Labor led minority government is still the most likely outcome. But ultimately, it is up to you.