The latest Guardian Essential poll shows the two party preferred at 52-48 and Coalition campaign spokesperson James Paterson (who seems to be sent out only when Jane Hume isn’t available) says that isn’t what he is hearing on the ground.

I’ve canvassed 11 candidates and colleagues around the country in a range of different seats for their feedback and they said yesterday on pre-poll was the best reception they’ve received on pre-poll to date and it’s been pretty good generally over the first few days but yesterday was particularly strong across the country.

We’re encouraged by that.

We think the Australians who are deciding early and are turning up are very strongly backing the Coalition but of course there is a large number who have not yet made up their mind who will be tuning in particularly closely in the next couple of days to make up their mind and it’s critical from our point of view that they understand we’re going to cut their petrol tax by $14 a tank and give them up to $1200 back on tax next year and they’ll be safer under a Coalition government.