In a campaign wrap-up yesterday afternoon, the ABC made a big deal of the “Jacinta Allan-shaped hole’ in the PM’s press conference. Anthony Albanese responded bluntly by pointing out that the Victorian parliament was currently sitting.
There are shades of electoral history here. In 1990, the Hawke Government made its re-election bid knowing that it was in deep trouble in Victoria. The state government of John Cain Jnr was deeply unpopular and the beginnings of a recession were making their mark felt already in that state.
Hawke was re-elected but lost nine seats, for which he blamed Cain and his colleagues.
What the ABC didn’t point out is that it can be dangerous for a leader to rely too heavily on state premiers who are obviously more popular. In 1980, Bill Hayden led the Labor Party, but its campaign material for that year’s election gave him equal billing with Bob Hawke (already popular but campaigning to win his first election to parliament) and Neville Wran, the much-liked premier of NSW. People thought that the party ‘lacked faith’ in its leader.
There were echoes of this in the commentary on Albanese’s use of South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas on Tuesday. The premier joined the PM for a health-themed day of campaigning in a state where the government hopes to hold and maybe even win seats. But as the Australian Financial Review pointed out, the ‘Malinauskas strategy has limitations’.
Albanese clearly hopes that he can walk a fine line between both precedents, using premiers only where they’re wanted.
In the end, Australians actually do know the difference between state and federal elections and weirdly don’t always vote the same way in those elections. So it’s all a bit of a nothing.
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