On the night of the Tasmanian election earlier this month, it was clear that Tasmanians had elected a parliament where no one party holds a majority of the seats. But the exact make-up of those seats is still not known. Today is the last day they are collecting postal votes, so the full count will soon begin.  

The ABC’s Casey Briggs has a personal blog where he’s explained what’s going on.  

In short: there’s two seats where a couple of different parties are in the running. 

There’s also seats where the winning party is known, but not which candidate from that party will win.  

That ability to choose between candidates is one of the great strengths of Tasmania’s “Hare-Clark” electoral system: candidates compete with others from the same party. Popular, outsider or moderate candidates can get elected over the top of whichever candidate the party machine might prefer. 

Negotiations in a power-sharing parliament 

But even before the seats are settled, there’s discussion about who will form government – and what they will negotiate. Both Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter have a path to power.  

Psephologist Kevin Bonham spotted that the Liberals are now running ads attacking Labor for (in the Liberal Party’s words) “doing a deal with the Greens” that will “destroy our economy and cost jobs”.  

But as the Australia Institute’s polling research found, most Tasmanians agreed that if the Labor Party is not elected in its own right, Labor should seek to form a government by working with the Greens and independents.   

Kate Crowley writes in Inside Story about the national trends and local factors that form the context for negotiations. She quotes the Australia Institute’s research on the 25 power-sharing governments that have formed in Australia since 1989:  

Analysing the twenty-five power-sharing governments at the state and territory level since 1989, the Australia Institute finds that they vary markedly, take time to negotiate, and typically result in the crossbench pursuing resources, reforms and occasionally ministries.  

They are usually based on formal agreements, involve the crossbench sponsoring legislation, and run full term.  

Such governments may follow elections, or form after a government loses its majority. Just as we see in Europe, it may not be the party with the highest vote that is able to form government. 

Greg Barns, a former Liberal Party advisor, describes the reforms this research highlights as ‘sensible’, including on environment, evidence-based drug law reform, and human rights protections. His opinion piece in the Hobart Mercury goes on to say:  

A power-sharing arrangement in Tasmania must include a commitment to… reducing corporate welfare, and ending regulatory capture which is most evident in the case of the salmon industry. 

The full research is, as always, freely available on our website.