The Minister for Climate Change, Chris Bowen, was asked by Zali Steggall about the government’s emissions target.

She rightly asked “the ICJ has confirmed nations have a legal obligation to prevent climate harm and productivity and economy has been battered by success of climate fuelled events, despite this the government ‘s defining action so far as to recklessly accelerate warming by approving new gas extraction to 2070, this negates any other policy, minimum target of 75% by 2035 of methane abatement is urgently needed, will you be ambitious?”

She is referring to the Climate Council, which has stated that “The science is clear. To do our fair share to hold global warming to well below 2°C, Australia needs to reduce climate pollution to 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035.” And that the CSIRO “pathway to reduce emissions by 75% on 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2040. Under this scenario, average real GDP growth from 2020 to 2050 would only be 0.03 percentage points lower than the net zero by 2050 scenario, a cost significantly less than the economic, social and health benefits of cutting emissions.”

So the Climate Council says we should aim for net zero by 2035 but at least (AT LEAST!!!) net zero by 2040 and 75% cut below 2005 levels by 2035.

Back in September 2022 the government introduced a target of 47% cut by 2030 – if we continued that out to 2035 we get to a 55% cut target, and it almost would get us to net zero by 2050

The problem, as you can see is we are not on the way to even the 47% cut. Instead since the end of 2022 we are going the wrong way:

But even worse is that we are not even close to the 75% cut by 2035 and net zero by 2040 (let alone 2035)

In his answer Chris Bowen said “it is very important a target be able to be achieved, it is not a useful contribution to the debate to set a target without outlining how the country can actually achieve that target. Yes, ambition is very important but so is achievability”.

That suggests this government when it releases its 2035 target will not even be setting a target of the very least we can do given the science, but instead will be a target that will do very little to alter the current trend.