Bill Browne

On Saturday, Tasmanians elected a new parliament – just 15 months on from the last election in the state. While the final results are yet to come in, what we know so far suggests the House of Assembly (the Tasmanian lower house) will be very similar in raw numbers to the previous House.

Tasmania went into the election with 14 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 3 independent MPs and 3 MPs formerly of the Jacqui Lambie Network.

Election analyst Ben Raue predicts the result of the election will be 14 or 15 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 4 independent MPs and either a Shooters MP or another Liberal MP.

Read his thorough blog post for more details on the election result.

In other words, Premier Jeremy Rockliff will face a parliament similar to the one that voted no confidence in his government just a couple of months ago.

The easiest way numerically for Labor to form government would be to negotiate with the Greens, something Opposition Leader Dean Winter reiterated on Sunday that he was unwilling to do. However, Australia Institute polling shows more than twice as many Labor voters support Labor forming government with Green and independent crossbenchers as oppose (61% agree vs 25% disagree).

This is the parliament Tasmanians have chosen – one very similar to the one they chose last year.

Fortunately for Tasmania, there are many ways of sharing power. This latest Tasmanian parliament is the 26th power-sharing parliament Australians have elected since 1989. Australia Institute research finds great variety in how power is shared, and what is negotiated in exchange for supporting the government:

  • Parliamentary reform, like allowing for private member’s bills to be debated and voted on.
  • Policy reform, like environmental commitments or truth in political advertising laws.
  • More staff and resources, so MPs can properly scrutinise each piece of legislation
  • Crossbenchers serving as ministers alongside major party ministers.

Our research also shows that most power-sharing governments see out a full term (which is four years in the case of Tasmania) and are often re-elected. They can be very successful in implementing policy reform; indeed while Labor is reluctant to work with the Greens again in Tasmania, there has been a long-running and productive collaboration between Labor and the Greens in the ACT.

One possible way through for the Tasmanian parliament is what’s called a “grand coalition”. That’s where the two major parties form government together, in an alliance of the centre-left and centre-right. This would be unprecedented for Australia, but is common in some other Western democracies.

Earlier in the election campaign, former Greens leader Bob Brown suggested a grand coalition made sense given the major parties’ agreement on issues like the AFL stadium. Psephologist Malcolm Mackerras made a similar argument, suggesting the position of premier could rotate between Rockliff and Winter.

One thing the election should do is dispel the notion that power-sharing governments are punished by the Tasmanian electorate. The Rockliff Government has faced its second election as a minority government, and did about as well at this election as it did in the last (in fact, it looks to have done better in primary vote terms).