Earlier this week, LaTrobe University hosted a public lecture: “The Australian Liberal Party: What has gone wrong? What is to be done?” with Professor Andrea Carson, former Attorney-General Professor George Brandis, Tom Switzer (executive director of the Centre for Independent Studies), former MP Cathy McGowan and columnist Sean Kelly.

Interesting reflections, of which I’ve picked out a few that struck me. You can watch the lecture yourself on the university’s website.

George Brandis and Tom Switzer, while identifying weaknesses in the modern Liberal Party, did not see it as facing an existential threat.

George Brandis identified five things that reduced the Liberal Party vote, of which the first two were most significant:

• Really terrible campaign
• President Trump factor – a prevailing anxiety which encouraged an incumbent vote
• Liberal Party allowed itself to drift to the right
• Character assassination of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
• Labor only in government for one term

That doesn’t suggest a deep seated, profound, structural change or shift in the electorate (he believes)

Tom Switzer said (paraphrased)

Donald Trump, cost of living and interest rate cuts all cost the Liberals.

The Liberal Party has lost its free market roots.

Liberals face very real challenges: preselecting women, raising more money and stopping the haemorrhaging of metropolitan voters to the teals.

But the Liberals and Nationals will survive. Australia is essentially a 50-50 country. Circumstances can change very quickly in politics. What explains the ups and downs is “Events, dear boy, events”.

Cathy McGowan argued that the rusted-on two-party system is no longer serving people. The crossbench are delivering, they’re powerful, they use media well:

The conservative parties are swinging right. I’m from Victoria – it’s so clear that’s happening.

Australian people want to be much more engaged: “It’s my democracy and I care about it, I’m going to invest in it”.

Independent Zoe Daniel losing the seat of Goldstein because Tim Wilson ran a local, very strong campaign proves that when the major parties get their act together, when we get the competition that we need, they can win. There is “no such thing as a safe seat”.

Sean Kelly argued that the 30-year long shift away from the two major parties is a structural problem. In this election, it hurt the Liberals far more than the Labor party.

Ideological confusion from the major parties comes from inability to answer the question, “what should society look like?”

At a time the world was in enormous flux, Peter Dutton zigged and zagged.

The speakers generally agreed that Sussan Ley was a good choice for Opposition Leader and had done well so far; and that the Liberal Party needed to increase women’s representation:

Sean Kelly shocked at what a difference Sussan Ley has made already. Remarkable to see conservative positions without bully boy rhetoric.

The Liberal Party is mad to not adopt quotas for women. Every other approach has failed.

Cathy McGowan pointed out that the community independents without quotas got mostly women. The community wanted someone very clever who could represent them, it’s not just the gender.

The Liberal Party in my area is not representative, the Labor Party not at all. We can bring out 1,000 people to campaign. The majors can’t do that.

Politics is a service job, to represent. The parties have forgotten that.

George Brandis said the community independents won because they mobilised the community. The Liberal and Labor parties have much shallower roots in the community than they did a couple of decades ago.

Sussan Ley is a much more modern style of politician than Albanese, who has only ever worked for the party.

Tom Switzer argued that people say there’s no moderate wing of the Liberal Party in 2025 – but Sussan Ley is a moderate.

Every Liberal Party leader who has won from Opposition – Menzies, Fraser, Howard and Abbott – all hail from the right of the party, so being a conservative is not an albatross.

The one Liberal who won a teal seat was a bloke.

Finally, Sean Kelly said we should all break out of our habits of referring to the two-party preferred result. A more accurate way of looking at the landscape is 33-33-33. Parties need to work out how to reach people at the grassroots and figure out what sort of a society they want to offer voters.