Bill Browne 
Director of the Democracy and Accountability Program

For the second time in as many years, Tasmanians elected a parliament in which no one party holds a majority of seats. The numbers are: 14 Liberal, 10 Labor, 5 Greens, 5 independents and 1 Shooter Party parliamentarian.  

This gave either Labor or Liberal the opportunity to govern. Labor needed the Greens and three other crossbenchers. The Liberals needed either the Greens or any four others.  

Negotiations ran for about a month after the 19 July election, concluding last week when the Labor Opposition’s no-confidence motion in the Rockliff Liberal Government failed. Not one crossbencher voted for Labor’s motion, nor have any made formal confidence and supply agreements with the Government.  

What happens now?  

Jeremy Rockliff remains Liberal Premier of Tasmania.  

The Government does not need a formal agreement with crossbenchers. They have the confidence of the Parliament unless they lose it.  

Nor are formal agreements any guarantee of stability; Rockliff made formal agreements with some crossbenchers after the 2024 state election, but that did not save him from a motion of no confidence in June 2025.  

In other words, agreements are neither necessary nor sufficient for stable government.  

How did negotiations play out? 

Labor were the favourites to form government, particularly after Rockliff rushed decisions on the TT-Line (a ferry operator seeking bigger loans) and the Marinus Link (an underwater power cable) – in possible breach of caretaker conventions. 

But Rockliff was prepared to compromise on environmental and animal welfare issues: 

  • Legislating marine protections, in line with New South Wales and Victoria 

The Liberals also made an independent, Tania Rattray, the leader for the government in the upper house. This is a return to earlier practice.  

By contrast, Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter let the perfect be the enemy of the good. He needed the Greens’ support to form government, but refused to do a deal and called them “the enemy of working people”. After Labor’s no-confidence motion failed, the party claimed “Tasmanians have just witnessed the coronation of a Liberal–Green government”, even though the motion would have failed regardless of how the Greens voted.  

Labor did propose:  

  • A suite of election and integrity reforms, described as a “framework” rather than a formal deal, including fixed four-year terms, truth in political advertising, right to information reform and replacement of the Tasmanian Integrity Commission with an anti-corruption commission. These were only published at the last minute, with an earlier preliminary version criticised as “integrity-lite”. 

Journalist Lucy Macdonald reflected on Labor’s approach:  

Not only did the opposition fail to gain the support of the Greens, who until recently appeared almost desperate to work with Labor, it could not convince a single other member of the crossbench that it was worthy of government. 

Could Labor take government by winning over the crossbench?  

It is possible to replace one government with another part-way through a parliamentary term. The Greens proposed this to Labor after the June motion of no confidence, but Labor declined.   

Labor has since changed leaders. It is possible that if the Tasmanian Parliament subsequently loses confidence in the Rockliff Government, they could get behind an alternative premier – including a Labor premier.  

This happened in 1941, during World War 2. The United Australia Party (precursor to the Liberal Party) was in power, with Robert Menzies as Prime Minister. Menzies lost the confidence of independent crossbenchers, and ultimately Labor’s John Curtin became Prime Minister.  

However, such a change in Tasmania seems unlikely in the short-term. 

What are the opportunities?  

Labor, the Greens and progressive independents have a majority in the Tasmanian House of Assembly, and the independent-dominated Legislative Council has proven amenable to reform.  

There have been examples of Opposition- or crossbench-led reform in the past, including industrial manslaughter laws, voluntary assisted dying and transgender rights. 

So even under Liberal Government, Parliament can legislate Labor and crossbench priorities. This term, those could include truth in political advertising laws, an anti-corruption watchdog with teeth and right to information laws that actually work.  

Voting for these laws would prove that Labor supports reform, something it asked the crossbench to accept on faith.  

This term of government could prove the best of both worlds: a progressive Parliament that legislates for integrity and transparency, with government ministers on notice on environment and budget issues.