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Thu 1 May

Australia Institute Live: Day 34 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

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Key posts

The Day's News

Your comments

Jordan says:

Urghh they want to rein in spending, yet will reverse the modest changes to tax concession on super above 3 million. What’s the message to students v rich retirees here?

Kim on an election tradition:

Almost time for the good ship Print Media to hoist editorials up their mast heads imploring folk to vote one way or the other. What colour will be on their flags?……colour me surprised. How will they spin it?

And Tim:

Re: Ted O’Brien as leader. I appreciate that this campaign has shown some unique strategic thinking in the Coalition, but if Ted was in the Queensland parly I doubt even they would pick him above, say, Andrew Powell – and that is saying something.
If Ted is the choice, they’d be better off dumplng a Senator, drafting Tim Mander and pulling a Gorton (incidentally who followed Holt – a CCP spy who swan to a sub off Cheviot).
My money is on Hastie.

Then after a back and forth over whether the ABC has reported on the nuclear policy fairly (it has, it’s just the Coalition is all butthurt over people not liking it’s post-it of a policy) Littleproud is asked if he would call the ABC the hate media and says:

I think unfortunately, James, what’s happened is much of my electorates, people have dropped off listening to the ABC. And that’s a shame because I think it should be more about news and less about views.

But I have had constructive conversations with Kim Williams who I find an honourable man and I think ABC’s important to me particularly in regional Australia, and I have got to say I worked very well with David Anderson in making sure we got extra journalists out into places like Alice Springs, even in my electorate, in places like Charleville, so our Australian story can be told but I think the ABC needs to just to return to more news, less views. I think that’s what the ABC was predicated on. It does a really good job when it sticks to that. And I think it has a future in not only in regional Australia, but in our country if it sticks to those principles and Kim Williams and I have a very constructive relationship around that. I have given him good feedback as well as he’s given me.

Factcheck: David Littleproud on public service cuts

Oh wait! There’s more!

Given that the natural attrition is mostly in front line services (and in departments like Services Australia where there is a lot of front facing work with the public) how is David Littleproud going to cut the funding positions and rely on natural attrition for the rest, without hitting front line services, but also cutting from Canberra, while not cutting in defence or national security?

Littleproud:

We’re saying we want to make sure that the public service who are stuck behind desks in Canberra are fewer in number because we want to see more public service – servants out there delivering the service, making sure that we can afford more hospital beds, more teachers, not more desks in Canberra. That’s common sense.

What we’ll do is work through that methodically in making sure that we stick to that iron-clad guarantee that we replace those front-line services. So to make an assumption so say we’re not going to replace front-line services is false in every sense. What we will do is be calm and methodical about this and making sure we get value for the Australian taxpayer, they are servants of the Australian people and we need to make sure they are out there serving the Australian people not stuck behind desks.

OK, well first of all, the states employ the teachers and nurses. The federal government gives the funding and does the administration. And there is no suggestion that the Coalition will be using the public service cuts to give more funding for the states to hire teachers and nurses – they want to use the savings to pay down debt. So that doesn’t make sense from Littleproud – he is deliberately using emotional language – hospital beds! Teachers! No desks!

And secondly, those desks in Canberra are filled with people who are doing the administration that goes with frontline work – be that payment, programs or logistics. It’s the machinery of government, that managed to keep going even when the parliament wasn’t sitting during Covid – the nation was held together by it’s public service. Public service isn’t just people standing in front of you, it’s people in rooms making sure things get rolled out as the government has set. It’s not always smooth, but that’s usually because of processes the government has put in place, funding constraints, or just rules that have been set by others and the public service has to work within.

The idea that people working behind desks (which is much of ASIO and ASD by the way) are just twiddling their thumbs and playing solitaire is just insulting.

Coalition’s public service conundrum

Here’s the Coalition’s public service policy.

First they said they would sack 36,000 people.

Then they said it would be no frontline workers.

Then it was just Canberra based public servants.

Then it was Canberra based, but not in security, defence or home affairs.

Then when the budget came out, the Coalition said they would sack 41,000 public servants.

All from Canberra.

Then it was ‘we’ll work out where from after the election’

Then, no, all from Canberra.

But now it’s not sacking. It’s natural attrition.

Then it was natural attrition AND voluntary redundancies.

Then it was natural attrition, and voluntary redundancies, and all from Canberra, but not frontline and not in defence and not in home affairs and not in national security (which are all based in Canberra)

Now it’s 41,000 of positions that are mostly budgeted for, but no one is actually there yet, so it’s not actually natural attrition, it’s cutting future funding. But it’s ALL from Canberra, and that’s what people get for living in Canberra. Or something.

David Littleproud told the ABC this morning:

That 41,000 much of that is budgeted, not yet hired. So that is what is baked into the Labor budget. So there aren’t actually jobs that have been filled. Much of that will come from the fact we won’t simply employ much of what they’re talking about. And there has, if you look at the APS data last year, through natural attrition, there was over 10,000, nearly 11,000, that left the public service. So you can do this sensibly, James. We’re not slashing and burning. We’re going to use some calm, common sense, and make sure we work through this to make sure that we’re directing the public service to give service, that they have got customers. It’s the Australian taxpayer. We want to see more hospital beds, more teachers, and less bureaucratic desks. That’s what we’re saying. We can do that if you set the priorities in this country. That’s what a Government should do, not let it get away from you.

Calm common sense indeed.

Gas drilling off Great Ocean Road dangerous and unnecessary

A gas exploration drilling rig has appeared within sight of one of Australia’s most loved and iconic natural wonders, the 12 Apostles on Victoria’s Great Ocean Road.

The drilling is part of gas exploration program by US oil and gas corporation ConocoPhillips in a sensitive marine environment off the west coast of Victoria and north west coast of Tasmania. 

An oil spill could have devastating consequences for the marine environment and coastal communities in Victoria and Tasmania.

The drilling is unnecessary. 

Key points:

  • More than two-thirds of Australia’s east coast gas is exported. 
  • Around 100 PJ (which is more gas than Victoria, NSW, South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland use for electricity) is uncontracted gas, being exported to the lucrative global spot market ahead of supplying Australians.
  • Gas exporters use more gas just running their export terminals than Australians use for electricity, manufacturing or in households.
  • Any additional gas supplied to eastern Australia from this project will simply allow an equivalent amount of gas from other gas fields to be exported.
  • Potential peak demand shortfalls in Victoria can be solved by electrification and pipeline upgrades.
  • Australia gets little out of gas exports. None of the giant, predominantly foreign-owned, projects exporting gas from eastern Australia have ever paid corporate tax and do not pay resources tax.

“This dangerous oil and gas project is completely unnecessary. Australia doesn’t have a gas shortage. We have a gas export problem,” said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute

“The Australian government is allowing oil and gas drilling within sight of one of Australia’s most iconic and loved natural wonders, risking oil spills, so that foreign-owned gas corporations can export more gas.

“70% of eastern Australia’s gas is exported, yet the government is allowing drilling within 1 km of a marine protected area instead of requiring the gas industry to prioritise Australians over exports.

“Australia is awash with gas. We don’t need to turn our iconic natural wonders into gas fields and risk devastating oil spills. We need to force the gas industry to prioritise Australians ahead of exports.

AAP has some more on the LNP costings, which appear to have been leaked ahead of their release:

The federal coalition plans to scrap Labor’s tax cuts and some of the government’s signature programs to improve the budget bottom line, if it wins the election.

While the opposition will release its full costings on Thursday, some details have already emerged.

These include plans to cut at least two of the Labor government’s off-budget investment funds, including the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund set up to build 30,000 new homes, according to reports in News Corp and Nine newspapers.

Labor’s recently legislated tax cuts would also be on the line to make budget savings, according to The Australian.

The coalition’s goal is to add at least $10 billion to the budget – which is walking toward a decade of deficits under Labor – over the four years to 2028/29 while cutting government gross debt by $40 billion over the same period.

Other cuts include scrapping student debt relief worth $16 billion, unwinding Labor’s decision to lower tax concessions for superannuation accounts with balances higher than $3 million, and dumping Labor’s Rewiring the Nation infrastructure fund.

“We will rebuild the nation’s fiscal buffers, reduce debt and begin budget repair because that’s what economic responsibility looks like,” shadow treasurer Angus Taylor will say, according to the reports.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said that, given the details so far, the opposition costings looked like a “con job”.

“Housing is going to be cut and income taxes are going to go up,” she told Nine’s Today show on Thursday.

“More lies from Katy,” Mr Taylor responded.

“The important point here is this: by bringing down our debt and bringing down the deficits, we bring down interest rates, inflation.”

(ED) except inflation is down and interest rates are coming down. Sooo……?

It’s costings day for the Coalition today, with the SMH reporting the Coalition plans on cutting $10bn over budget deficits and cut government debt by $40bn. This is apparently despite its spending promises on defence, and nuclear, which, as Mick Foley at the SMH has been reporting, could be way more expensive than the Coalition is saying, because of the whole ‘there’s no water allocations in the sites they have chosen’ thing.

While Labor and the Liberal party fight it out for the seat of Gilmore, independent candidate Kate Dezarnaulds isn’t ruling herself out either.

In sport it’s called the Steven Bradbury. In politics, it’s called the Andrew Wilkie,” said Dezarnaulds.

Wilkie is now one of Australia’s most trusted MPs, but in 2010 he came from third place with just 21% of the vote. We’ve done the maths, and we think we can do the same.”

Polling shows that Fiona Phillips is attracting a primary vote of about 36%, while Andrew Constance is down to 33.5%, from the high of 42% he received at the last election., Dezarnaulds’ campaign thinks that a primary vote just 18% with a strong preference flow could get her over the line.

The campaign says Dezarnaulds leads among undecided voters and if a late surge of voters turns up in these final days for her, she could beat Phillips into the second spot and win on preferences.

It’s pretty clear the country isn’t excited about either Dutton or Albanese — only one in three voters are backing them,” said Dezarnaulds.

That makes this the perfect moment for an underdog Independent to break through — and that’s how we win.”

An election campaign helping the rich, ignoring the poor

With the election just days away, there has been a total lack of focus on the most vulnerable in our society.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton constantly talk about governing ‘for all Australians’, trotting out slogans like ‘no-one left behind’.

The truth is, hundreds of thousands of Australians are falling further behind every day and neither leader seems to care.

Growing inequality is having a huge impact on children and older people.

The Australian Council of Social Service notes that one in eight (13.4%) Australians live in poverty. This includes 761,000 children. We know that being in poverty as a child has lifelong impacts, even if the child is later lifted out of poverty.

It doesn’t have to be like this. Australia is a rich country.

Australia Institute research showed that the COVID supplement, a $550 per fortnight payment to welfare recipients, lifted 650,000 people out of poverty, including 120,000 children.

This shows that poverty is a policy choice. If governments choose to, they could end child poverty and ensure that all older people have a dignified retirement.

Rather than tackle inequality, tax concessions and other tax loopholes are making it worse. Tax concessions worth tens of billions of dollars per year go overwhelmingly to the rich, while those who need government support the most are told that increases to welfare payments are unaffordable.

“What does it say about the quality of our political debate that during a cost-of-living crisis neither party wants to talk about Australia’s poorest and neither party has any plan to tackle inequality?” said Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist at The Australia Institute.

“While many Australians are doing it tough, spare a thought for those who do it tough even when prices of everyday essentials aren’t rapidly increasing.

“Australia can act on poverty, but it is not a priority for our political leaders. 

“When it comes to defence spending, there is always money available, but whenever the topic of increasing Jobseeker comes up, we are told it is unaffordable.

“We are going to give away $14 billion in investor tax concessions to make housing more expensive. But lifting the rate of Jobseeker so that our most vulnerable are not living in poverty would cost just $6 billion.”

Anika Wells, who has turned what was once a Liberal target seat of Lilley into something the party is only half heartedly putting resources into winning, has spoken to ABC News Breakfast this morning:

When I came to Parliament in my first speech, I said I came here to be a good ancestor, I came here to think about policy that stretches beyond the 24-hour media cycle. I love working on Brisbane 2032 because it gives us here the opportunity to work on something that is now seven years away and think about how we want our brilliant town to be seen in the eyes of the world. Set ourselves up in the long-term sense so I’m always thinking about long-term policy and I welcome others to do the same.

Q: OK on the Voice to Parliament, will it make a come back do you think at some point?

Wells:

I think both Penny Wong and the Prime Minister yesterday spoke on this particular matter. The Voice in the form we took to the referendum is gone. We respect the opinions and the votes of people, they made that very clear, but we’re always looking for ways to help First Nations people and for that policy to be tangible and credible.

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