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Thu 27 Mar

Australia Institute Live: Coalition to raise income tax if it wins government by repealing tax cuts for one off fuel excise cut

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

Opposition leader Peter Dutton will deliver his budget in reply speech this evening, promising a fuel cut of 25c a litre, to combat Labor's top up tax cuts, while vowing to repeal Labor's tax cuts. All the parliament day's events, live.

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2025 Dutton contradicts 2024 Dutton on tax

We don’t know if the Coalition will make mortgage repayments tax deductible rumours is true, but we do know that the Coalition, “the party of lower taxes” is planning on repealing income tax cuts which have already been legislated – essentially promising to INCREASE taxes. Wild times.

So let’s take a look at what Dutton said in last year’s speech:

https://peterdutton.com.au/leader-of-the-opposition-budget-in-reply-check-against-delivery-2/

Taxation is the killer of aspiration.

The working individual supports themselves, their family, community, fellow Australians and our country.

People should be rewarded for their hard work by keeping more of what they earn so they don’t become the new working poor.

The more you keep from what you earn, the less you’re dependent on the state.

And the more freedom and choice you have to realise your aspirations.

Be it studying, travelling, educating children, starting a business, owning a home, or retiring comfortably.

Your money is your money – not the government’s.

Under a Coalition Government I lead, your taxes will always be lower.”

Seems the department of prime minister and cabinet hit send a little bit too early on their scheduled tweet:

Banning foreign investors from buying existing dwellings won’t help housing prices

Jack Thrower
Research economist

Labor know that negative gearing and the CGT discount push up housing prices. That’s why they went to the 2016 and 2019 election saying they would crack down on it.

Their latest budget has shown they still believe this is the case. The budget bans foreigners from buying existing dwellings. This shows Labor knows that investors buying existing housing pushes out first-home buyers.

But foreign buyers only make up a tiny part of the market. If they really want to increase home ownership, they need to reform negative gearing and the CGT discount.

If the Government fixed negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, we could stop housing speculation, raise billions, and reduce inequality.

Also in the budget:

In its first budget the Government funded work to establish “an independent Makarrata Commission to oversee processes for agreement making and truth telling”. Unfortunately this funding expires this year and the budget includes no further funding. The Prime Minister has said that the money is being diverted, but it seems clear that the Government continues to back away from its commitment to the Uluru Statement from the Heart.

Jack Thrower
Research economist

Australia is worried about American tariffs while continuing to adhere to our ‘free trade’ with the US which was a bad deal then and even worse now.

Instead of reconsidering this agreement, the budget shows the Government is spending $20 million (less than $1 per person) to “encourage consumers to buy Australian made products”.

Rumours, rumours everywhere….election called tomorrow and Coalition considering making mortgages tax deductible??

So there are a couple of big rumours which have taken hold in recent hours, and we stress that these are rumours (as in no one will confirm them) but given it’s the last day of the 47th parliament and everything is going a bit nuts, we thought we would fill you in.

One is that Anthony Albanese will call the election tomorrow. That would put an end to estimates and to any momentum Peter Dutton gets in his budget in reply speech (nothing takes attention away like an election!). Given the Oz is already running that Dutton hasn’t even had to give ‘the speech of his life’ to change the game and that the election call is actually a sign of “no confidence” in Chalmers’ budget and NOT BECAUSE THE BUDGET WAS ONLY DELIVERED BECAUSE A CYCLONE DELAYED THE ELECTION CALL THAT WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE FOR MAY, it is worth nothing.

The other big rumour that is sweeping the place, including Labor offices, is that Peter Dutton will announce the Coalition will make mortgage payments tax deductible. This was floating around yesterday and so far there has been nothing to back it other than the rumour, but given how far it is starting to spread, we thought we would clue you in.

IF that was true:

  1. It will obviously mean people can borrow more and bid house prices up
  2. It will cost a fortune 
  3. The biggest benefits wlll go to those with the biggest mortgages 
  4. The higher your income, and the higher your marginal tax rate, and in turn the bigger the benefit

Coalition’s fuel excise savings questioned

Matt Grudnoff
Senior economist

Angus Taylor has been out spruiking the Coalition’s cut to fuel excise. But he seems to be assuming that the average driver fills up the tank once a week.

But in reality, two thirds of drivers fill up once a fortnight or less. In fact, we’ve crunched the numbers and the average driver will save only $9.80 per week or $510 per year. That’s less than Labor’s tax cut when it is fully implemented. A tax cut the Coalition has called a “cruel hoax”.

The cut in fuel excise will also encourage people to consume more fossil fuels.

If you walk to work, ride a bike, or catch public transport then you’ll miss out.

If you did the right thing and bought a hybrid or electric vehicle, you’ll get less.

If you work from home, then this is not going to help you.

This is poorly targeted cost of living relief that will also make it harder for us to meet our emissions reduction targets.

Dutton assumes that most people fill up a 55l tank once a week, whereas in reality both ABS surveys and those done by morning groups say that is the exception. A Budget Direct car insurance survey found that around two-thirds of people only fill up once every fortnight or less!

Getting rid of non-compete clauses (for workers earning under $175,000 – which good news – is almost all of us!) is a good thing and this is one of the reasons why

Tanya Plibersek’s Sydney voters care about salmon farming new poll finds

Sydney voters care about fish deaths and the impact of commercial fishing in Tasmania, according to a new poll.  

The federal government last night rammed changes to Australia’s environment law – aimed at protecting salmon farming operations in Tasmania – through the Senate. 

The legislation aims to scupper a long-awaited review of salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour, on Tassie’s west coast, by Environment Minister – and Member for Sydney – Tanya Plibersek. 

While the legislation was promised and driven by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, this poll suggests voters may punish Ms Plibersek, revealing her first-preference support has fallen to 41.1%, down from 50.82% at the 2022 election.

The Australia Institute commissioned the polling from uComms, which surveyed 860 Australians living in Sydney between 17 and 18 March 2025.  

Key Findings: 

·                     61% support stopping salmon farming in areas where it is putting the endangered Maugean skate at risk of extinction; more than twice as many who oppose (24%). 

·                     63% have heard about the mass fish deaths currently happening in the salmon industry in Tasmania. 

·                     68% think the current mass fish deaths are having a negative impact on Tasmania’s ‘clean and green’ brand, including 36% who think it’s having a significant negative impact. 

“Voters in Sydney and all around Australia understand and have watched in horror at what’s happening in Tasmania,” said Eloise Carr, Director of The Australia Institute Tasmania. 

 “That includes voters in the Environment Minister’s own seat. 

“This poll was conducted before the amendments to the environment laws were rushed through. 

“If voters were angry then, they’re even angrier now. 

“If this shambolic, chaotic process was designed to shore up votes in Tasmania, it could blow up in the government’s face on the mainland. “  

Given it is the last sitting day of the parliament, there is not a lot going on.

Which means that Andrew Leigh is moving through a lot of maintenance requests, and requests for works on public buildings.

It is that sort of day. So if you have a maintenance request, better get it in before end of business!

Health Minister says EPBC don’t weaken protections

Speaking to the ABC a little earlier this morning, federal Health Minister Mark Butler argued the provisions in the environmental laws were “ridiculous”, while sidestepping a question about whether the changes impact Australia’s international reputation after Leonardo DiCaprio showed his support for the Maugean skate on Instagram.

“It doesn’t water down any of the other environmental protections that we have in place,” Minister Butler said.

Riiiiggghhhhtttt.

Here’s what the amendments do:

  • Increase the likelihood that Australian native species will become extinct, driven by a government which promised no extinctions under its watch.
  • Protect the destructive, foreign-owned commercial salmon industry in Tasmania.
  • Potentially stop anyone – from local community groups to Federal Government Ministers – from reviewing projects like coal mines, gas exploration, land clearing or other destructive practices.

The Australia Institute Tasmania Director Eloise Carr summed it up when she said: “for once, just as our nature law was about to do what it is supposed to – protect world heritage and species threatened with extinction – the major parties have changed the law”.

Also, let’s not forget a decade ago Anthony Albanese described similar proposed changes to the EPBC has an act of environmental vandalism.

How things change. And not for the better.

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