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Mon 31 Mar

Australia Institute Live: Anthony Albanese paints Peter Dutton as the new Mr Harbourside Mansion, while gas befuddles both parties. Day Three of the election campaign, as it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

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The Day's News

On the taskforce, Richard Marles says:

The task force is there to look at how we implement legislation which will prevent price gouging. That will ensure across all markets, where there are – all sectors where you have the dominant players, where you have essential services in place to make sure price gouging in those circumstances is illegal. This is legislation which exists in other countries around the world and it should exist here as well. That is what we’re committing to. It will make a difference to ensure prices are kept as low as possible for consumers.

Richard Marles also defended the announcement from the weekend that Labor would put together a supermarket price taskforce to stop price gouging. Marles is asked why didn’t the government act during the term, which is completely fair – it’s not as though this is new information.

Marles:

There are countries elsewhere in the world which have anti-price gouging legislation. That is what we are seeking to introduce here. That was the commitment we made – the Prime Minister made over the weekend. That is an important step forward. What it is saying is if you have got, for essential goods and services in a sector where there are companies with market power, price gouging in those circumstances will be made unlawful and that is the heart of the legislation you see elsewhere.

Marles is then asked about the ACCC report which found no evidence of price gouging.

It is important to note that the ACCC report also found:

While they are not necessarily the most profitable in a given year, regardless of the metric applied (EBIT, NPAT or return on capital), Coles and Woolworths are some of the most profitable supermarket businesses among their global peers. ALDI has indicated its Australian supermarkets business is at the higher end of profitability when compared with ALDI supermarkets trading in other countries

ALDI’s, Coles’ and Woolworths’ average product margins increased over the last 5 financial years, while Metcash banner stores’ average product margins were relatively flat. While input and operational costs have increased over this time, Coles and Woolworths have maintained or increased their product margins.

We have not sought to determine whether the prices or margins of ALDI, Coles, Metcash (or its banner stores) and Woolworths are excessive. Having or exercising market power, or charging high prices, or obtaining high margins, is not prohibited by the CCA. If there were a greater degree of competition between supermarkets, we would expect margins to be lower, either by way of lower retail prices, or higher costs incurred to improve quality of service, or both.

In our view it is important to consider all metrics and the information each provides before drawing conclusions. ALDI’s, Coles’ and Woolworths’ margins increased at all accounting levels in recent years. Therefore, we consider it reasonable to conclude increasing EBIT margins over this period suggest these supermarket businesses have not passed on the full benefit of any cost saving initiatives. Increasing product margins appear to have contributed to the increasing EBIT margins – even if ALDI, Coles and Woolworths have acted to moderate cost growth.

Defence minister Richard Marles says he is not following the polls, because it’s “bad for your mental health”.

He told ABC:

We don’t follow opinion polls by the day. It is not good for your mental health if you are in politics. We focus on what our job is, which is to govern the country. We are not looking at that. This is a close election, everyone knows we are coming from behind. That is the way in which we’re proceeding here.

Greens leader Adam Bandt is campaigning in Wills today, which is one of the party’s target seats.

Labor MP Peter Khalil is under real pressure from the Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam in that seat, and Bandt says the Greens see opportunity. Especially when it comes to housing. Bandt said in a release:

Renters and people in mortgage stress will determine the outcome of the federal election, and they can tell you tinkering around the edges has not made housing affordable. In a wealthy country like ours, everyone should be able to afford a roof over their head, but in 2025 people are still being smashed by sky high rents and mortgages. Nothing changes if nothing changes – we can’t keep voting for the same old two parties and expecting a different result.

The Greens are campaigning as a bloc in Victoria, where they are also aiming to win Macnamara from Labor’s Josh Burns. Burns seems (at this point) to be in a safer position than Khalil, but there are a lot of days left in this campaign.

But this is still not the time to talk climate change policies, according to David Crisafulli, even though he acknowledges it’s real:

They are all great questions and they are all factual. There is going to be a massive economic cost but it runs a distant second to the personal cost. When you see the look in somebody’s eyes who has lost everything, there is a number of young people who have gone out on their own and bought properties. They will be wondering whether they can get back on their feet.

We are still dealing with recovery in the north of the state and south-east following massive events. We are seeing them more frequently and there is challenges. We have to do everything we can to build resilience into what we do, that is everything from the way we recover.

We have to make sure we have protections in place and making sure we build a state that is truly resilient. The people are, that is for sure. It is time that our infrastructure matches the resilience of the Queenslanders who live here.

Queensland south west is experiencing significant flooding, which has had a major impact on communities and the way they earn their money. Flooding has led to the death of thousands of cows, sheep and goats across grazier lands.

Premier David Crisafulli said the impact will have ongoing ramifications, but right now the focus was on keeping communities as safe as possible.

He told the ABC:

It is soul-destroying. We are dealing with tens of thousands of stock losses across beef as well as sheep and goats. There will be a massive economic impact but there is that real social and personal impact when you lose your livelihood. We will have to be there for them in the short and long term.

We still have water rising in the small communities, places like Thargomindah hasn’t hit the peak yet. They are big systems and they take a few days to get through.

We have had a couple of evacuations from some communities and those people are safe and well.

I met some of the residents from Quilpie who are being accommodated there. They will go home to complete and utter devastation. We will have to help them.

The real economic impact and what will flow through the community is the devastation to agriculture. We will have to make sure we continue to deliver fuel and fodder in the short-term. The work has been around the clock to give every hope where there is dry land to keep the animals fed. In the long term we will need to lead a big recovery, re-establishing exclusion fencing and helping them restock after devastating scenes.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers issued a press release this morning which seems solely aimed at the press gallery and campaign journalists:

The Budget shows that gross debt in 2024–25 is $177 billion lower than what was projected at the time of the last election.
 
This means we have lowered the debt by around $17,700 per household.
 
By lowering the debt, we’re avoiding around $60 billion in interest costs, or around $6,000 per household.
 
The Liberals left us a trillion dollars of debt during a decade where they racked up deficit after deficit.
 
In less than three years, we’ve turned two big Liberal deficits into two Labor surpluses, shrunk this year’s deficit, reduced Liberal Party debt by $177 billion and saved Australians billions in interest costs, while also delivering substantial cost-of-living relief.
 
The Coalition’s last Budget had gross debt above 40 per cent of GDP throughout the forecast and medium term. Under Labor, it’s now expected to peak  lower.
 
The change in gross debt over the Albanese Government – around $45 billion from 2021-22 to 2024-25 – is a much smaller increase than under Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison, even the pre-pandemic years:
 
    •    From end of 2012–13 to 2015–16, gross debt rose by $163 billion.
    •    From 2015–16 to 2018–19, it rose by $122 billion.
    •    From 2018–19 to 2021–22, it rose by $353 billion.
 
Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor have said “the best predictor of future performance is past performance”.
 
The Liberals’ past performance is higher debt, higher inflation, lower wages and cuts to Medicare, and that’s what they would deliver again if they win the election.
 
Under Labor, inflation is down, real wages and living standards are growing again, unemployment is low, debt is down, interest rates have been cut and growth is rebounding solidly.

That, we assume, is in response to graphics like this:

Screenshot from the Insider’s program, Sunday 30 March.

Meanwhile, in graph crimes, here is how the Australian chose to illustrate the breakdown of first preference votes.

The Coalition is only 4% ahead of Labor in terms of primary vote. Is that what this looks like though? The Greens and ‘other’ are on 12%, which together is a significant wedge – but is that what you would take from this?

It’s just another way that media can slightly alter how you view things – you see the number, sure, but you are left with the impression of the slice of the pie, which is deliberately outsized in this example.

After declining to invite MPs for Easter at Lakemba Mosque, Australia’s largest mosque, MPs were also told they were not welcome for the traditional Eid prayers and festivities this morning. That includes long-time western-Sydney Labor MPs like Tony Burke. Anti-genocide protesters have come together for the campaign, angry at the government’s response to Israel’s slaughter of Palestinian civilians.

Stand4Palestine says no pro-Israel MPs or candidates from any side of politics should be invited to any Islamic event or space, and those that do should be made to feel uncomfortable.

It’s one of the underlying issues of the election campaign which is not getting a lot of coverage, but MPs, particularly those in western Sydney, are facing a backlash from their community for how the two major political parties have handled Israel’s assault on the civilian population in Palestine, even after the ICC issued arrest warrants.

It has meant the campaigns have had to change how they do things, as spaces they may have taken for granted in previous years are no longer welcoming.

With Simon Birmingham’s departure, the job of Coalition spokesperson has moved to senator James Paterson.

Political parties usually have a senator take on the role of major spokesperson because they don’t have a seat to defend. The job of a senator, within the party, is to win lower house seats and part of that means spreading the party’s messages. Hence: Paterson as spokes.

Today’s questions are all about the polls, which are not trending the Coalition’s way. Paterson tells the ABC:

The polls show the next election is going to be close. Polls have shown that for the best part of a year. The Coalition are underdogs, we have a big task ahead of us. No first term government has been removed from office in 100 years. It shows the Australian people have a significant choice to make over five weeks. Can they afford another three years under a re-elected Anthony Albanese Labor Government, or do they want to get our country back on track by electing a strong Prime Minister in Peter Dutton and the Coalition?

Which is maybe the most obvious thing you could say about an election. ‘There is a choice to be made’. Yes, we know. That’s the whole point.

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