Peter Dutton has also switched up how the Coalition is going to achieve the 41,000 people it wanted to sack from the public service – it is no longer going to be by direct sackings, apparently, but through natural attrition (not replacing people who have decided to leave)

The community and public sector union have done some numbers on that:

A freeze on filling public service roles for 5 years is likely to exceed the 41,000 already on the chopping block.

The union says this reckless approach will hollow out essential services and leave millions of Australians worse off.

The latest iteration of Peter Dutton’s public service cuts would also have a disproportionate impact on frontline services where there tend to be higher staff turnover rates. (Based on current agency attrition rates.)

• Services Australia would lose 12,500 jobs or 42% of staff over 5 years.
• The Department of Veterans Affairs would lose almost 1,000 jobs or 27% of staff over 5 years.
• The NDIA would lose 2,070 jobs, or 21% of the agency, over 5 years.

The Wombat trail – which is the Nationals election campaign – has been launched in…Bendigo.

Why is the Nationals starting their campaign in Bendigo and not leader David Littleproud’s home state of Queensland?

Well, the Nationals are still popular in regional Victoria, thanks to people like Darren Chester. They are less popular in Queensland under Littleproud’s leadership. There is not a lot of love for Littleproud in Queensland’s west, which is a power stronghold for the Nationals, traditionally.

If you really want to get a sense of just how much the Trump tariff brain decimation has upended thing, just look at the market expectation for interest rates.

Back in February when the RBA cut the cash rate to 4.1% the market got the sense from the RBA Governor Michel Bullock that she rather liked high interest rates and thought we all needed to be still very worried about inflation even though inflation was below 3%.

The market anticipated maybe TWO rate cuts in the next 18 months. This was the time in which both major political parties were getting ready to go to the election. And you can bet the LNP was planning to hammer the issue of high interest rates all the live long day.

After the RBA’s meeting last week, the market was now of the view that all the inflation figures were very much looking good and that even while the RBA might have been far too scared to cut rates lest it look “political” a cut in May was almost certain and THREE rate cuts in the next 18 months was on the cards.

That rather dimmed the LNP’s attack because while the RBA had not cut rates, no one was out there saying they would not be cutting rates. It was clear worries about high interest rates was dimming.

Then Trump released his noxious fumes around the world.

Just three days after the RBA meeting the market had shifted to now expecting FOUR rate cuts by the end of this year.

Why? Well, all those fears of inflation are gone, and the need for the RBA to cut rates to help stimulate the economy are now all anyone was thinking about.

And with it as well has the entirety of the economy frame of this campaign.

Back to the second Albanese press conference – here is another example of how Anthony Albanese is handling tricky questions now. Not so long ago, these would have tripped him up.

Q: Peter Dutton’s policy was targeting Federal Government workers. This family are not Government workers. Is it disingenuous to be here today?
 
Albanese:

Not at all. These are people who’ve benefited from working from home. Peter Dutton said people should just go and job share. Now, Milly worked at TAFE. TAFE, in part, is supported by the Federal Government as well as the State Government.
 

Q: Prime Minister, if I may, what percentage of your own staff do you allow to work from home?
 
Albanese:

Oh, look, not everyone can work from home –
 

Q: Isn’t that his point? Aren’t you making his point for him?

Albanese:

No, that’s not his point. His point was that he would outlaw working from home. That was his point, except for himself at Kirribilli House, that is the point here. For many jobs, I can’t work from home. I can’t work a five-day week. That’s part of the deal. If you’re in construction, you can’t build a house from home. Milly worked as a nurse. When she was a nurse, she can’t be a nurse, you can’t bring the patient home. She worked at a hospital, but she does her TAFE work here at home, and that is the point here.

Meanwhile, Peter Dutton just can’t stay away from petrol stations now. It’s almost like the fuel excise cut policy (which has been overstated for price savings) is the only policy the Coalition still has to talk about.

In case you missed it, Anthony Albanese has been taking some advice and coaching from Daniel Andrews on how to better communicate (and also debate, which we will see the results of, tomorrow)

You can see some of that impact here.

Q: Prime Minister, the family you just met, the two parents – I think one works in finance, the other works for the TAFE here. Will you concede they won’t be impacted by Peter Dutton’s ‘Work from Home’ because they’re not Canberra public servants? And Chris Minns says he supports getting some public service back to the office, why is he wrong?
 
Albanese:

Well, your term ‘Canberra public servants’ shows you’re picking up on some of the language there. You know there are public servants who don’t work in Canberra. A majority of them do not work in Canberra. That’s one point.

The sort of people who are in Hervey Bay and in western Queensland, helping Queenslanders at this point in time deserve respect from the alternative Prime Minister.

Not to be denigrated, the sort of anti-Canberra rhetoric is, frankly, a bit unbecoming from a bloke who we know he doesn’t want to live in Canberra – we know he wants to live at Kirribilli House – but it’s a bit unbecoming. The truth is that public sector conditions then flow through and are used to argue in the private sector, that’s the way industrial relations works.
 

And here is where the political crosses over with the economics of the situation – Jim Chalmers:

I’m realistic about the impacts of these escalating trade tensions on the global economy, but I’m quite optimistic about Australia’s capacity to make the best of a bad situation, that’s because of the progress we’ve made, the plan that we have from here, and it also I think, sharpens the choice in the election.

Peter Dutton does pose an unacceptable risk to household budgets and to the Australian economy more broadly. We’ve seen that with his bin fire of cuts and chaos earlier today, but not just earlier today.

This would be the worst time to risk a change of government to a coalition government that would make wages lower, taxes higher, and who has secret cuts to pay for nuclear reactors.

Should we look at this modelling through rose coloured glasses, or as preparing for the worse?

Jim Chalmers:

This is the treasury’s best estimate of the impacts, it’s effectively the central case as they consider it. But there’s more than the usual amount of uncertainty and volatility when it comes to forecasting economic updates.

This is the third update of the modelling, no doubt there will be more updates under a government of either political persuasion. What this represents is the treasury’s best efforts to get a handle on impact on growth in the US, China and in Australia.

The treasury expects the impact on the American economy and Chinese economy to be significant. They do expect a substantial spike in prices in the US, and they expect impacts on the Australian economy, although a bit more modest and manageable than what we’re seeing in other countries. We released this modelling publicly and we’ve ensured the opposition has been briefed on it, because we want to work together with the people of Australia to understand the risks here, so people can understand what’s going on, what our expectations are and how we’re responding.

We’re responding with cost of living help, lower income taxes, a more resilient economy, more diverse expert offering, more engagement with the world. It’s more important than ever the work we’ve been doing to engage with our own region. This is our best defence against global uncertainty.

What about what Donald Trump would mean for people’s super balances (given the impact of the tariffs on the stock market and superannuation firms investments)

Jim Chalmers:

I can assure people that in a world of volatility and uncertainty, Australia is better placed and better prepared than our peers.

Everyone with a super fund, everyone with shares, I think, probably every Australian, is seeing what is happening on global share markets and in our own market with a degree of trepidation about all of this uncertainty.

I say to them the work we’ve done together over the course of the last three years, strengthening our economy, getting inflation down, helping with the cost of living, repairing the budget, all of these things are our best defence against this global uncertainty.

One of the big pressures on the budget we released not that long ago was these escalating trade tensions that do cast a dark shadow over the global economy and we won’t be immune from that, but we’re better placed, better prepared and Australians should take comfort from that.

On the major superannuation cyber attack, Jim Chalmers says:

We encourage super members to check their accounts and be vigilant and contact their funds if they have concerns. APRA and ASIC are engaging with all of the potential impacted super funds to support safe outcomes for members.

On Friday, we convened the council of financial regulator agencies to get an update on their ongoing response to this incident as well.

That’s working around the clock in response to the incident and it’s all about protecting fund members and improving security measures. We encourage all impacted super funds to continue to work with government agencies to assist in responding to this incident.

We are not currently contemplating some of the steps that you have mentioned in your question. But we’ll do what is necessary to make sure that super funds are safe in the first instance, that means making sure that the national office of cyber security is coordinating that work, working closely with the funds and with the regulators as well, and that’s our focus.