The debate tonight looks set to all be around who will manage Trump better. The way the debates work, the campaigns usually go quiet in the afternoon so they can prepare.

Dutton is trying to set up a few things; one that he would manage a Trump led world better, and two that he would manage the domestic economy better.

But the problem with that, is that given how in flux the world is, people are looking to boring. Boring is looking stable and dependable. If you speak to some people in Labor, they feel like their ‘boring’ approach (they would call it steady) has been under appreciated and that the times may actually see more voters swinging back to Labor.

Labor is using that to push for a majority government. At this point in the game, minority is still the most likely outcome, but Labor is feeling better about some of its Victorian and outer suburban seats, which may see it come across the line.

As George Megalogenis says in his most recent Quarterly Essay, Victoria and NSW will decide the election – but not just the outer seats, the teal ones that the Liberal party is not working to capture.

If you open a paper today, you might find yourself seeing a very broad group of leaders and thinkers in agreement on something we haven’t seen agreement on in Australia previously.

The Coalition’s proposal to introduce a new tax on gas exports, designed to divert gas production away from exports and towards Australian households and industries, could raise billions of dollars, according to Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute.

“Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of Liquified Natural Gas but, despite this fact, the largely foreign-owned gas industry has been making the bizarre claim that there is a shortage of gas in Australia,” said Dr Denniss.

“Peter Dutton’s rejection of that silly claim, and his proposal to tax gas exports to encourage greater local supply, is a watershed in Australian energy policy debate.” 

Research by The Australia Institute shows that more than 80 percent of gas produced in Australia has been used for exports, and more than half of those gas exports were given away, royalty-free, to the gas exporters. 

“Putting a tax on gas exports is an easy way to ensure that more of Australia’s gas flows to Australians and that they pay less for it,” said Dr Denniss.

“Introducing a cap on gas exports as well would be an even better way to both protect Australians from cost-of-living pressures and protect the climate from increased emissions from burning gas.

“The opportunity for Labor to expand on the Coalition’s policy is enormous. 

“For decades, the major parties in Australia have seemed afraid to put the interests of Australian taxpayers ahead of the profits of the fossil fuel industry.

“But now that Peter Dutton has made the first step, the opportunities for the new parliament are unprecedented.

“Norway taxes fossil fuel companies and gives young Norwegians a free university education while in Australia we subsidise the fossil fuel extractors and charge our kids a fortune to go to university. 

“It is time for Australian leaders to be brave enough to put the interests of the Australian people ahead of the interests of the fossil fuel polluters.” 

The Coalition want to cap international students (which Labor does as well, but the Coalition want to go further with the caps) and Peter Dutton claims it is to ‘help young Australians get into housing’.

International students overwhelming stay in student accommodation. They are not competing with people to buy houses.

Dutton:

Just to put this into perspective, this is part of our housing policy because I want to make sure that young Australians can get into housing. And I want to make sure that young Australians can afford their rents as well. At the moment, that’s not the case. So, for every 42 students that have arrived as part of the international student program – and we’re fully supportive of international students coming to our country, but the numbers increased by 65%. For every 42 international students who have arrived, there’s been one rental unit built to provide accommodation.

So, of course every one of those students wants to find safe accommodation, but the trouble is that they’re competing with Australians who can’t get into housing. So what we’ve said is that we want to reduce the number and reduce the migration program so that we can get the balance right. We’ve got a $5 billion program to work with councils to pay for infrastructure like water and road and sewage upgrades so that we can build 500,000 new homes.

And there are other things that we’re putting in place as well around housing so that we can get that housing outcome. I understand the Retailers Association and other employers as well who look to that workforce, but we’ve got a very significant number of people who have arrived over the last two years. In fact, a million people have been brought into our country over the last two years. That’s a 70% increase than any 2-year period in our country’s history, which in part is what’s created this housing crisis. And many of those people have work rights and the ability to work in retail stores and across hospitality and tourism and right across the

This will also form much of the Coalition’s debate this evening:

Dutton:

We have the highest core inflation rate of any of the G7 nations. So, interest rates have gone higher faster here than in other areas of the world. And, as you know, we’ve had seven consecutive quarters in this country of negative household growth. So, households have gone backwards.

That hasn’t been the case in other parts of the world, including in comparable economies. And the home-grown inflation that the Reserve Bank has spoken about here is a big part of why we’ve had a 30% increase in grocery prices. But it doesn’t stop there.

It’s 32% increase in electricity prices. 34% for gas. Rents are up by 17%. I just don’t think Australians can afford three more years of a bad Labor government, and particularly if it’s a Labor-Greens government – that will see inflation come back into the system, which will force interest rates higher again. And that’s why interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.

OK, inflation came LATER to Australia. And the RBA began increasing interest rates LATER than the nations that Dutton is talking about. So inflation began to come off those other nations earlier – because inflation had come to them earlier. Economists are beginning to speak about the need for the RBA to cut rates four more times, so the situation that Dutton is describing is rapidly changing.

Peter Dutton is still doing the mea culpa on the public servant work from home reverse ferret, but now adding the sting (which was always coming); Albanese has never apologised, and it’s Labor’s fault for getting people upset at the policy.

(The policy only ever applied to the public sector, yes – but the public sector often sets the conditions for the private sector, which follows. So while the government can only order public servants back to work, it would have set the scene for private companies to reverse their own flexible work arrangements.)

Dutton:

Our policy applied to public servants in Canberra. But this whole series of lies where Labor had made people believe that somehow it was going to apply economy-wide – it was just deceptive and, frankly, dishonest. So, we’ve clarified our position. I’ve apologised for the mistake that we’ve made. And I think, frankly, it’s a very necessary part of leadership to demonstrate where you have got it wrong to apologise.

The Prime Minister’s never apologised in relation to the broken promise around the $275 cut to electricity prices. People have experienced big cost rises in their electricity prices.

Never apologised for it.

So I do think it’s important that, where you make a mistake, you apologise, you explain what you got wrong, and we’ve done that.

And we have been very clear about it.

So I think it allows us now to concentrate on what issues are important at this election and I think helping families, helping small businesses, helping our economy grow – I think all of that’s important.

The core inflation rate in our country is twice what it was under the coalition*, which is why people are paying more for groceries and paying more for their everyday items that they’re having to find money for out of an ever-shrinking budget. And I want to make sure that we can help families find some headspace, some breathing space, and I want to make sure that we can help families get through what’s been a really tough three years.

It began rising under the Coalition – Labor inherited it.

What would Peter Dutton do differently with Donald Trump?

Well, he tells the ABC, not a lot really. He’ll do the same things and also just beg a little more.

Firstly, when Donald Trump was president a few years ago, we were able to negotiate with the administration for Australia to be exempt from the tariffs. And that was a very significant outcome. But it didn’t happen by chance. We had identified Joe Hockey’s work as ambassador was crucial in doing this – identifying people who could have an influence in the decision in and around the administration. That’s exactly what we did.

This Prime Minister just hasn’t got any of that connection. There’s been no work done in the run-up to what was obviously being announced. And I think for us, the question at this election is – who is best able to manage the relationship? Who is best able to manage the economy so that we can deal with Labor’s cost-of-living crisis? And who is best able to deal with national security in a very uncertain time? We have the ability, as a coalition, not just to clean up a bad period of economic management after a Labor period in government, but also to make the decisions to help families and help promote that investment into our economy, which is necessary to create the jobs and economic activity.

Dutton is asking Australians who will be able to ‘connect’ better with Trump, which is essentially just asking Australians, who will Trump like more – and is being liked by Trump something Australians want this time around?

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is promising more tariffs on China. As AAP reports:

US President Donald Trump has threatened to further increase tariffs on China, raising the possibility of further escalation in a global trade war.

Undeterred by a slide in stock markets, Trump on Monday said he would impose an additional 50 per cent duty on US imports from China on Wednesday if the world’s No. 2 economy did not withdraw the 34 per cent tariffs it had imposed on US products last week. 

Those Chinese tariffs had come in response to 34 per cent “reciprocal” duties announced by Trump.

“All talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” he wrote on social media.

The announcement injected further turbulence into global financial markets, which have fallen steadily since Trump’s announcement. 

A 10 per cent tariff took effect on all imports into the world’s largest consumer market on Saturday, and targeted duties of up to 50 per cent are due to snap into place on Wednesday.

One of the areas where the Coalition had outflanked Labor was on mental health.

Mark Butler was tasked with addressing that and today Labor is announcing a $1 billion package mental health spend, with more Medicare mental health centres and additional specialist services for young patients. Butler announced a mental health service in Ryde yesterday as a bit of a teaser to the whole package.

The Coalition had promised $400m for youth mental health and increasing the number of Medicare-subsidised psychology sessions from 10 to 20.

Labor is promising $225m to upgrade or build new Medicare mental health centres (which don’t offer on-going care, but can help people into the system to find longer care and deal with emergencies), $200m for Headspace and $500m for 20 specialist youth mental health centres.

Does Australia need to diversify its trade?

Mark Butler:

We’ve got to diversify our trade, we have focused on South-East Asia, a big strategy put in place over the last year or so. We focus heavily on India, where frankly we could lift our economic partnership. Diversification, not relying on any single market is critically important. We learned that from the tariffs put on by China that we were able to lift. We can’t have eggs in any single basket, whatever basket that is.