Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young is responding to the day’s events and says:

If the leaders really want about things that are going to cut the cost-of-living pressures for families and to deliver genuine structural reform in terms of cost-of-living pressures, putting dental into Medicare is one of the best things they can do. That should be on the table for debate between the Leader of the Opposition and the prime minister tonight. And of course, so should claim action and the environment.

This debate was really about the future of this country, the future of the planet, and what type of community and society we are going to have next election, the Greens leader Adam Bandt should be on the podium being able to debate these topics toe to toe with the leaders of the other parties. I fear that there will be very little said about club action or the environment or indeed putting dental into Medicare tonight but we will wait with baited breath. Back on the issue of recession for one moment. In the midst of this looming global crisis, the last thing we want to see is cuts to public services. This is not the time to cut public services and to take the chainsaw to public services. The only thing that should be cut is interest rates. That is why we need RBA to do its job and we need to be very, very fearful of trusting anything that Peter Dutton says when it comes to services and public service jobs. I think that is it.

Of course the first question is ‘is it affordable?”

Everything is affordable if a government chooses to make it a priority.

At some point in every electoral campaign that is going badly, the leader reaches for the idiocy switch and starts predicting horrors should the other side be elected.

In 1983, Malcolm Fraser told reporters that were a Labor government be elected, “people would be better off keeping their money under the bed”. It pretty much alerted everyone to the fact that Fraser was lost to rationality and so too were his election hopes.

Well today Peter Dutton decided to step up to the plate and take his place in Australian electoral idiocy by claiming that there would be a recession “under Labor” and that the reason the Treasurer Jim Chalmers was saying that the market is now anticipating a 50 basis points rate cut in May is because “he’s telling Australians that there are difficult times ahead under Labor. That’s exactly what he’s doing.”

Every sentient being knows that the reason we now are likely to have a stack of rates cuts (possibly 5 by the end of the year) is because of Donald Trump raising tariffs everywhere and freaking everyone out that there might be a GLOBAL recession coming.

Dutton trying to blame the ALP for a GLOBAL slowdown is beyond stupid. Stupid economically – because clearly it is wrong; and stupid politically, because everyone – even those who do not understand economics – know it is wrong.

Everyone knows what Trump is doing is hurting the world economy. Dutton seems rather unhinged because Australia did not get higher tariffs than other countries such as the UK or New Zealand, and his hopes of being able to spend the 5 weeks talking about high interest rates are now dissolved before his eyes.

But even still, political leaders should not be going around saying a recession is coming – the last thing any leader should do is be saying things that might have people thinking they should panic. And recessions are very much panic stations events. It’s why serous politicians never suggest they are coming.

Anthony Albanese when asked much the same question only had to say of the opposition that “I’m absolutely certain this is not the time to cut. This is not the time for what the coalition are going to have to do to pay for their $600 billion of nuclear power plants as we go forward. Now is the time to

continue to manage the economy responsibly whilst we make sure we build Australia’s future by building up our education system.”

He might be trying to draw your attention to what the LNP’s policies might be, but he’s not saying under Dutton we will have a recession.

But here’s the other point – the real issue is what would the ALP or LNP do if the global economy does slow due to Trump.

Peter Dutton, in between blaming Labor said he would respond “As a Coalition I will always and Angus will always adhere to the principles of a Coalition government. That is to live within our means and make sure we can provide support to families and make sure we’re not continuing to build on the pressure that families are under by pushing prices up all the time.”

Ok, but in a recession, prices are not going up all the time, and living within your means is not possible unless you think austerity is the way to go. Is that what he is saying?

Back during the Global Financial Criss, the then Rudd Govt undertook a massive stimulus plan to keep Australia out of a recession. It worked. It’s why we refer to it as the GFC and everywhere else it is called The Great Recession.

So what was Peter Dutton saying back in 2009 that might give us a sense of his “principles of a Coalition government”?

In parliament on the stimulus bill, Peter Dutton said “today is the day that the Labor Party put into debt the future generation of Australian children.” And he further argued that “This government has taken a reckless course.”

It would seem Peter Dutton would therefore be unlikely or hesitant to deliver appropriate support should the rest of the world go under – preferring instead – as he said in 2009 to treat the budget like a household budget and “to consider whether, if it were their own household budget, they would plunge themselves into considerable debt”.

These questions should be front and centre of the campaign. Because if your policy is austerity, Australians need to know now.

And finally, back in 1983 Bob Hawke responded to the line that Australians would hide their money under theirs beds by responding with contempt and mirth, “But you can’t put your money under the bed… that’s where the commies are.”

In tonight’s debate I doubt Albanese will have such a witty rejoinder, but he will not doubt be taking Dutton to task for speaking of a recession.

Anthony Albanese did an event at Headspace – you may notice the Pride flag front and centre here – that’s because of a viral Reddit post where a Redditor reported that Coalition advancers stripped a Headspace last week of LGBTIQ flags and references ahead of Peter Dutton’s visit.

Both the campaigns are going to go to ground now, to prepare for the first of the leaders’ debates.

So let’s take a look at the day, in photos:

Peter Dutton visited his FIFTH petrol station.

This only came after Phil Coorey wrote in the Fin last week that it was crazy the Opposition wasn’t at petrol stations, given the fuel excise policy. They visited one the next day and then every day since.

Sometimes a picture really does say a thousand words

In that press conference, when Dutton was asked about the dumped Liberal candidate for Whitlam, Ben Britton (who was dumped following reporting from Sarah Basford Canales at the Guardian about his previous comments, including that women shouldn’t be in the ADF)

Britton is now running as an independent.

And he still believes women shouldn’t be in the ADF, telling Sydney radio 2GB:

My position is the same as Andrew Hastie, the Shadow Minister for Defence and the great Jim Molan that women should not serve specifically in combat roles, specifically in the Army itself.

Now this is a little awkward because in that press conference when Dutton was asked whether women should serve in the ADF, he said: “I think you saw my record as Defence Minister in relation to women serving in any role they want to serving in the Australian Defence Force”.

He then Andrew Hastie agreed with his (Dutton’s) position.

Which is not the position Hastie held in 2018 (with thanks to a friend of the blog for pointing this out)

Hastie told Sky News in 2018:

My personal view since you’ve asked me is that close combat roles are incredibly exacting that’s why we have rigorous selection courses. And my personal view is the fighting DNA of a close combat unit is best preserved when it’s exclusively male. Now that’s not a popular view. You know, we’ve changed it five years ago, but you asked my personal view. There it is.

Last night on ABC730, Adele Ferguson revealed more disturbing incidents exposed inside for-profit NSW childcare centres. 

“New evidence has come to light about what’s happening in some centres and it’s far worse than anyone thought.”

But what if the government offered early childhood education in the same way it offered school education? 

Australia Institute research shows reforming Australia’s approach to early childhood education would increase the size of the economy by $168 billion and allow the government to collect an additional $48 billion in revenue.

And higher prices don’t translate to better care: The Australian Government’s National Quality Framework shows that for-profit providers on average do worse than not-for-profit and state-owned providers when it comes to metrics like educational practice, children’s health and safety and staffing arrangements. Something confirmed by ABC’s investigative journalism into the sector.

“Not only is free childcare a form of fiscal stimulus, boosting consumer demand by increasing the disposable income of families with young children, but in the long run, it will significantly grow GDP and make Australia a far more equitable country,” said Matt Grudnoff, Australia Institute senior economist.

Of course, Australia already experimented with a Nordic model of providing free childcare during the pandemic, and it proved a big hit with families and for the economy. Naturally, the Morrison government put a stop to it almost immediately. Sigh.

Peter Dutton did find himself under pressure trying to answer whether he still believes that working from home was impacting productivity.

Q: When you announced your work from home policy you said it would increase productivity, do you still believe getting public servants back into the office would have an economic benefit?

Dutton:

I think we dealt with the issue yesterday.

Q: Does it still have an economic effect?

Dutton:

We dealt with at issue yesterday. And the arrangements apply now apply prospectively.

Q: Do they have an economic benefit?

Dutton:

It will have the economic benefit it does now.

The Antipoverty Centre has criticised Labor’s mental health spend by making the point that people’s mental health is made worse by living in poverty – and the government has not done anything to change that.

Budgets are about choices. And the government has made the choice not to lift Australians living on welfare out of poverty. The Antipoverty Centre says that makes any announcements about mental health, hollow.

Antipoverty Centre spokesperson and DSP recipient Kristin O’Connell said:

We know that the welfare system – through appallingly low Centrelink payments, abusive “mutual” obligations and compulsory income control – is causing widespread mental ill health, and fuelling suicide. We know this because of the extraordinary number of people in distress who seek help from the Antipoverty Centre, and because the statistics tell us so.

It is no surprise that mental health services are under increasing strain as the government utterly fails in its response to spiralling living costs.

There is not enough funding on the planet to improve the mental health of people experiencing distress because they are in poverty, homeless, in debt, because Centrelink payments are too low and exclude too many.

There is no denying mental health services are under strain. That is because people whose health issues are caused by factors that are easily fixed are trying to get care.

If people were not in such enormous financial distress, services would have more capacity for those of us who have complex psychosocial conditions – conditions that are also exacerbated by the fact that we are trying to survive without enough money to live.

We need Centrelink payments above the poverty line. We need “mutual” obligations and parasitic (un)employment services providers abolished. And we need the government to support our mental wellbeing by acting instead of forcing us to tell them this over and over and over.

This is so dangerous. Dutton is basically weaponising the chances of a recession for political gain. The ‘tsunami’ wave he has spoken about is not something Australia has control over, to the extent that it has been proven time and time again that Trump can’t be appealed to on a rational basis. And Dutton has said that they would have the same no go areas as the government in terms of negotiations – he has just said that he would tie Australia even closer to the US and buy even more from them in terms of AUKUS defence contracts.

That is what he has said he would do. And now he is saying that a recession would happen under Labor, just as a political point in an election campaign. This is a massive departure from the unspoken rule that you don’t talk up the prospect of recessions unless it is actually happening because you can talk your way into it. Labor danced on this line during the Frydenberg years, but didn’t cross it. Seems like all of that is now out of the window.

Q: When you say Australia’s heading into recession under Labor, you can you promise there will be no recession under you?

Dutton:

What I can tell you for almost two years families have lived in a recession already in the country, they’ve gone backwards under this prime minister so when you say who’s delivered a recession, the Prime Minister has. The treasurer has. They’ve delivered budget after budget, completely stuffed around for the first 16 months with the voice. They wasted $425 million. The Prime Minister has never apologised for that. Has never apologised.

And I can say to you now if you have a look at the track record of the Coalition when we were in government, we provided support to people, grew the economy, help people through the period of COVID, the economy will always be better managed under a Coalition government and what you’ll seen from a panic treasurer at the moment saying there will be a 50 point reduction in interest rates next month, is broadcasting to the Australian people he believes under his watch there will be a recession. After May 3 we will clean up Labor’s mess. Help families, get electricity and gas prices down, manage the economy so we can lower inflation, help young Australians achieve the dream of home ownership again which has been lost under the government, we will make sure health services are first-class properly funded and provide support families missing out of the moment. Bulk billing has plummeted under Mr Albanese. That’s what will take to the next election. That can give Australians every assurance better days will be ahead because a Labor-Greens government will see higher inflation and higher and not lower interest rates.

Q: On your public service cuts can I get clarity on a couple of things, you said yesterday you worked with the PBO and that’s how you got the assumption natural attrition would deliver at 41,000 person decline, given that’s well above the natural attrition rate now, and you said you will be keeping frontline roles, what assumptions are you making or how are you confident you will get those cuts and could you give explanation about what you consider a frontline public servant, is it someone who answers phones for Services Australia for example?

Dutton:

I’ll leave the PBO question to the appropriate time and that will be further in the campaign. This election is about how we treat Australians with the dignity they deserve and that includes making sure we spend wisely and efficiently and not in a wasteful way, the taxes they earn and pay. I think readers of the daily tally would be more interested in how we can take different help them with their problems because at the moment they are struggling to keep head above water. What I want to do and I don’t make any apology for this… Is it there is waste within the budget, and Labor has built up wasteful spending, I want to make sure the money can get back to families, to frontline services, to supporting doctors, supporting nurses, to make sure we can spot the Australian Defence Force and we can achieve that through a measured approach as was evidenced in the Howard years. And that’s exactly what we’ll do.