Roderick Campbell
Research Director
The reason that today’s export gas approval is such an opportunity for Peter Dutton and the LNP is that they could, in one fell swoop, fix the Northern Territory’s gas problems and win both its lower house seats.
As Peter Dutton has explained, ending claimed gas “shortages” in Australia is a matter of limiting gas exports. This is true in the NT as it is on the east coast.
Darwin has two huge liquified natural gas terminals. Just one of them exports more gas than NSW, Victoria and SA use in a year. Diverting just a fraction of Santos’ capacity to the NT, something that is already done in emergencies, would eliminate the need for any other supply.
And yet, you guessed it, apparently the NT has a gas shortage!!
To address this “shortage”, in 2024, the NT Labor Government delivered a massive subsidy for fracking in the NT via a commitment to purchase fracked gas.
The important thing to realise is that fracking is very, very unpopular in the NT because of its potential impacts on groundwater. South of Darwin, everyone and everything relies on groundwater for at least some of the year. Everyone drinks groundwater, showers in it, goes fishing in it, and they know it.
And so a policy that would eliminate the need for fracking without expressly banning it would be a big deal in the NT. It could tip a lot of swinging voters both in the tight outback seat of Lingiari and in Darwin’s Solomon, where Dutton thinks he can win.
Taking on the gas industry on the east coast has worked for Peter Dutton. It could work in the NT.