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Tue 22 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day 25 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

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The Day's News

Fact check: the 2014 Coalition health budget

Greg Jericho
Chief Economist

Anthony Albanese talks about $80bn in cuts to health and education in the 2014-15 budget, and yep it is there. Rather weirdly it was included in the glossy overview – which usually is the place where govts put of the marketing stuff. Oddly Joe Hockey put in the fact that they were going to cut $80bn from health and education.

I remember being in the budget lockup and finding it and we all were rather stunned that it was there

There is then argy bargy over whether Anthony Albanese is lying about Peter Dutton cutting funding in Medicare when he was health minister in 2014.

It then ends with Dutton saying that Labor is pointing to a cut in funding growth (which is true). But that is the same measure Dutton uses to say Labor “ripped out” funding from defence.

So funding increased, but it didn’t increase by what it had been forecast to increase by, which meant that things were cut.

Anthony Albanese says he will stake his prime ministership on bulk billing rates going up if he wins another term.

“Absolutely,” he says.

His lies and rebuttal:

Medicare is at the center of this campaign, and we will strengthen Medicare. Peter uses a figure about bulk billing that takes into account the fact that Australians had to get COVID shots during the pandemic, and that boosted artificially the numbers.

But the truth is, bulk billing was in free fall because the incoming Liberal government, the last time they won, ripped $50 billion out of the hospital system. This Minister, when Peter was the health minister, tried to introduce a GP tax, which would have abolished bulk billing altogether. And when he couldn’t do that, what happened was that there was a six year freeze on the Medicare rebate, which sent bulk billing into free fall.

Now during this campaign, Peter has not said where the money is coming from for his nuclear power stations, he won’t go anywhere near them.

He was in Orange today just near Lithgow. Won’t go near them. And he won’t go near them because he knows that it just doesn’t stack up, which is why the private sector won’t fund them.

Each leader is asked to address the biggest lie they think their opponent is using against them.

Peter Dutton can’t choose one:

The $600 billion figure comes from a company that is a donor to the Labor Party, full of donors, labor staffers discredited, and it is at odds with the 100 and $20 billion figure for the construction of nuclear power sites. So which is the CSIRO figure.

That’s one the $275 obviously, is another broken promise in relation to Medicare, the whole Medicare scare campaign, which has been going on at subsequent elections for a long period of time. The fact is that Bob billing has plummeted under this prime minister. People can’t afford to go to the doctors because the out of pocket expense now is about $43 per person when you’re going to the doctor. That’s a lot of money, and it’s why people are putting off going to the doctor. So there have been a lot of lies told by labor over the course of this campaign, but I don’t think Australians are stupid.

I think they see through it. And I think increasingly, as people test some of the claims being made by the Prime Minister, they realize that at best, your best description of him could be that he’s loose with the truth, and he says it with a straight face, which is the most remarkable thing.

Matt Grudnoff:

Dutton says the Smart Energy Council estimate of $600bn for nuclear power comes from a company that is a donor to the Labor Party, full of donors. Labor staffers, discredited. He is talking about the Smart Energy Council

Fact check: Voters turning against the major parties

Greg Jericho
Chief Economist

The switch to non-LAP non-LNP candidates is not a federal issue – it is across Australia in both federal and state elections

If people don’t love Labor, why is Peter Dutton and the Coalition going backwards?

Dutton blames Labor’s lies again.

Well, early the Labor Party spent $20 million throwing mud at us with negative ads, and that has an impact, (so Labor campaigned better and were more prepared?) and I get that, but for a lot of Australian families, over the course of the next few days, they’re going to have to make a decision about what’s in their best interests and what’s in our country’s best interests. How can they get their family finances sorted out?

This government’s brought in a million people over the course of the last two years, which is a 70% increase in the migration program of any two year period in our country’s history, it’s created a housing crisis.

So Australians feel tension because their kids are staying at home longer. Young families are putting off having kids. Mums and dads and grandparents are staying in the workforce longer because they’re trying to help their kids with mortgages or with a deposit.

And I can get that people are disillusioned in that environment, people are living in very uncertain times when you have a look at what’s happening in the world, in our own region, people are unsettled by what they see on the world stage, and they need a prime minister with strength and the ability to stand up for our country and to deal with the issues, whatever they might be that come our way.

Once again, it is not the fault of migrants or immigration that house prices are too expensive and it didn’t happen in the last three years. This has been a failure across decades.

First question – how is it not a failure that people are not inspired to vote for a major party.

The question was phrased around ‘one in three are undecided’ – because they don’t want to vote for either the Coalition or Labor. But that doesn’t mean they are undecided.

Anthony Albanese:

We live in times where the old rules of 40% of people voting labor, 40% of people voting for the coalition and 20% being up for grabs, they’ve gone that reflects the changes in our economy, the changes in our society, and we recognise that. But what we have managed to do is, in very difficult global times, with the biggest inflation shock since the 1980s and the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s is get inflation down to 2.4 per cent, make sure we deliver cost of living relief that have made a difference to families on average of $7,200 whilst making sure that we put in place reforms that help build the future, like better schools, fund strengthening Medicare and cheaper childcare.

The opening statements are as you would expect.

Peter Dutton has stumbled a bit – which is unusual compared to his previous debate performances.

Anthony Albanese is distinctly low energy in his opening statement as well.

So far, it seems like neither leader is loving this.

Third leaders’ debate

It’s the debate no one asked for, at the time no one needed it.

And we have one more after this!

Huzzah!

This one is Network Nine’s with Charles Croucher, Deb Knight and Phil Coorey asking the questions. Ali Langdon is the mediator.

She wants “honest to the point answers”.

Peter Dutton has won the coin toss and will go first.

Roderick Campbell
Research Director

The reason that today’s export gas approval is such an opportunity for Peter Dutton and the LNP is that they could, in one fell swoop, fix the Northern Territory’s gas problems and win both its lower house seats.

As Peter Dutton has explained, ending claimed gas “shortages” in Australia is a matter of limiting gas exports. This is true in the NT as it is on the east coast.

Darwin has two huge liquified natural gas terminals. Just one of them exports more gas than NSW, Victoria and SA use in a year. Diverting just a fraction of Santos’ capacity to the NT, something that is already done in emergencies, would eliminate the need for any other supply.

And yet, you guessed it, apparently the NT has a gas shortage!!

To address this “shortage”, in 2024, the NT Labor Government delivered a massive subsidy for fracking in the NT via a commitment to purchase fracked gas.

The important thing to realise is that fracking is very, very unpopular in the NT because of its potential impacts on groundwater. South of Darwin, everyone and everything relies on groundwater for at least some of the year. Everyone drinks groundwater, showers in it, goes fishing in it, and they know it.

And so a policy that would eliminate the need for fracking without expressly banning it would be a big deal in the NT. It could tip a lot of swinging voters both in the tight outback seat of Lingiari and in Darwin’s Solomon, where Dutton thinks he can win.

Taking on the gas industry on the east coast has worked for Peter Dutton. It could work in the NT.

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