And with that, we are going to say good evening – it is important to take these slightly early marks where you can because the days are only going to get longer.

Today we saw:

Labor stick with its health week theme, with a $150m announcement for the Flinders’ medical district in Adelaide

More questions on the spy/research vessel and press gallery worries about underwater sea cables for reasons which still remain unclear

Anthony Albanese has worked out after three years how to control a press conference (looks like that Dan Andrews coaching is paying off!)

Albanese heading to Geelong to talk kids sport and get more images of him being very positive on the campaign trail

Peter Dutton and Bridget McKenzie looking at a sign in a field as they promised funding for Melbourne’s rail link (at the expense of the suburban rail loop no one seems to want)

Dutton unable to say what is ‘woke’ in the educational curriculum he was gung ho about de-woke-ifying on Sky News the night before

Dutton very upset about the Chinese spy/research vessel and very worried about underwater sea cables

Dutton holding a very quick press conference with victims of crime in the seat of Bruce (which is one of the Coalition target seats)

No one talking about the Coalition housing policy to lighten lending regulations, because the policy seemed to get very confused depending on who was talking about it.

Malcolm Turnbull having a great old time on his victory lap about not putting all your eggs in the Aukus basket

The RBA holding interest rates shocking no one

The RBA getting a bit confused about the impact of tariffs

Tomorrow is Trump’s ‘Liberation day’ eve which means we are going to get more panic over how Australia is going to react to it’s ‘greatest ally’ slowly circling the geopolitical toilet bowl.

WHAT FUN!

Thanks so much to everyone who joined us today – we hope to see you again tomorrow. Until then, send in more of your questions (amy.remeikis@australiainstitute.org.au) and I will get them answered by our experts – and take care of you. Ax

On the latest episode of After America:

“The President is unconstrained by the law.”

“And that is precisely how America is behaving now.”

Meanwhile in Canada, freshly-minted PM Mark Carney has announced that, if re-elected in the nation’s snap April 28 poll, his Liberal Party government will solve the housing crisis by (gasp) getting the government to build a lot more affordable homes.

“We’re getting government back in the business of building affordable homes. Acting as a developer, […] Build Canada Homes will work with industry to build affordable homes at scale including on public lands.

Under Carney’s plan, the government would create Build Canada Homes, a new housing development corporation, to directly construct new housing projects. 

The Canadian Liberals’ plan also includes significant new support for prefabricated housing manufacturers, with Carney arguing for the economically and environmental benefits of prefab housing:

“The way we build homes needs to change. Prefabricated and modular housing will play a big role in the future they can drive down the time to completion by up to 50%. They are cheaper to build by up to 20% and they are a more sustainable way to build, producing 22% fewer emissions than traditional construction methods.

[…] We want Canada to be the world leader in this new innovative industry. That’s why we’re providing $25 billion in financing to scale up that industry and in the process we will create good jobs up and down the supply chain.”

We’ve argued for a long time at The Australia Institute that if governments want to make housing more affordable, they should start building affordable housing again.

If they want Australia’s current contenders for PM are serious about tackling the housing crisis, taking inspiration from Canada might be a good place to start.

There is more to this press conference, but honestly, it is too boring for words.

Save yourself. Even Grogs has switched off.

Greg Jericho is also listening to this press conference with his economist brain:

“So, the way we think about forecasting inflation and forecasting activity is about total demand and supply. And what we’ve been saying is that total demand, which is private and public together, has been above the level of supply in the economy. The ability of the economy to supply what is being demanded. And that’s what is driving inflation.” – Michele Bullock.

[But inflation is falling, or at worst stable, household spending growth is weak, private investment growth is weak. So no idea what she is worried about. GDP growth is bugger all. Excess supply? Come on.]

The RBA Governor is holding her presser and the press pack seems a little calmer than usual.

She opens with her statement which includes:

The board is focused on risks to activity and inflation in Australia. But there’s also a lot of uncertainty around the global outlook at the moment. One of things we’re cautious about is that policy unpredictability overseas could lead to slower growth. The implications for inflation here, though, in Australia, are less clear. The recent commentary from the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks is worth noting. They’re all conscious of the I will pact of global growth but uncertain about the medium term inflation implications. We’re not on our own in navigating this period of unpredictability.

So the board can properly debate and consider the risks for outlook for Australia, the team at the RBA has been working on a number of scenarios and we’re talking to our peers in other Central Banks – particularly other small open economies, to try to make sense of what is going on now and what we can expect in the next year or so.

We’re paid to worry, to analyse and to make judgements as new data comes in and as the environment evolves, and that’s what we’ve been doing and will continue to do. We’ve come a long way and it hasn’t been easy, but we have made good progress on bringing inflation down and keeping unemployment low. This is a good position for the economy to be in as we approach a period of uncertainty. But we have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves. Inflation pressures remain, and cost of living pressures are still very real for many Australians. The board will continue to look at the data to assess if the economy and inflation continue to evolve expected.

Which suggests that far from being ‘home grown’ pressures as the Coalition is trying to make stick, it is the global uncertainty which has the central bank’s eye

Angus Taylor has been allowed to front the cameras! Good job Angus!

He has the usual things to say:

The Reserve Bank today, of course, kept interest rates on hold, which continues to underscore for Australians is that there’s no fast pathway back to the standard of living they had when Labor came to power.

Let’s be clear – Australian standards of living have collapsed since Labor came to power. 8% down in just under three years. 8 % in just under three years.

That’s the incomes they had, what the goods and services are that those incomes can buy – down by 8% since Labor came to power.

And we know from Labor’s own numbers and from the Reserve Bank that we’re not getting back to where we were when we were last in power until the end of the decade. This will be a lost decade for Australians if Labor stays in power. That is their plan. Their plan is for a lost decade. And that’s why Australians are losing hope.

We see anxiety – not confidence.

Etc, etc, etc

Just as they are about to go to questions, Michele Bullock stands up for her press conference and all the broadcasts leave Angus. Sad.

In the RBA statement and in Treasurer Jim Chalmer’s press conference there was a lot of mention of “uncertainty”, which is code for Trump’s idiocy about tariffs which is due to happen on Thursday.

To get a sense of just how uncertain things are, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for Australia that is calculated by recording mentions of uncertainty and similar terms regarding economic policy in the media each day is at a record high for Australia – so Trump has made economic policy more uncertain than COVID, or the introduction of the Carbon Price, the GFC or September 11.

On housing prices, Chalmers says:

It’s not unusual for house prices to rise in our economy. It’s been more or less a permanent feature of our economy for as long as I can remember. And obviously, the interest rate cut has a number of economic consequences, including, I think, injecting another $5 billion, I think from memory, into the economy over the course of the 12 months after the decisions taken. The most important economic consequence of the rate cut that we saw earlier this year is that it took a little bit of pressure off Australians who are doing it tough. That’s our motivation as well with our cost of living package.

That’s why it beggars belief, frankly, that when Labor is trying to cut income taxes for every Australian taxpayer, Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor have said that they will legislate higher taxes on every Australian taxpayer, and that would make it harder for Australians to service their mortgage. I wanted to one more thing about housing, because you’ve given me the opening today. Today, on the front of one of the newspapers, we hear that the Opposition want to direct APRA, the regulator, the banking regulator, to change the serviceability buffer when it comes to home loans.

This is a little bit like the mess that they got themselves into on insurance divestiture. Because Michael Sukkar was in the paper saying that they’ll direct APRA. Peter Dutton was saying that it is a matter for APRA to determine the serviceability buffer. And Andrew Bragg was on TV earlier on saying that Australians could borrow $40,000 more as a consequence.

So they have to clear this up. Michael Sukkar is saying that they’ll direct APRA. Dutton is saying it’s a matter for APRA. Bragg has a specific number in mind that he’s making this off. This is what happens when the Liberals and the Nationals make the policies on the run. They announce it as a distraction from the nuclear reactors which will cost $600 billion – which will neccisitate cuts to pensions and housing.

So I call on the Opposition, I call on Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor to immediately clear up this latest policy bin fire that they’ve come out with as a distraction from the secret cuts to pay for the nuclear reactors.

And with that, Chalmers’ bounces.

Q: Tomorrow, Donald Trump will outline his tariff plan. Are you concerned that this decision was made a day prior to what could change Australia’s relationship with the US?

Chalmers:

A couple of things about that. First of all, the Reserve Bank’s made it really clear that one of the things that’s front of their mind is all of this global uncertainty. And escalating trade tensions are obviously a big part of the story, but not the whole part of the story. And the budget was designed as well to address, really, two main pressures – cost of living pressures and also this global uncertainty.

And so, no doubt, the Reserve Bank Governor will have an opportunity to talk through this afternoon how they’re seeing this global economic uncertainty and what it means for their deliberations when it comes to decisions taken from the new administration in DC, we will continue to stand up for and speak up for Australia’s national interests. When it comes to the PBS and when it comes to those elements of Australian policy architecture that’s so important to us, those policies are not up for negotiation.

And I think that there is a difference here when it comes to the major parties in Australia.

You know, as I said before, DOGE-ee Dutton always takes his instructions and cues and policies from US. When stand up for Australia’s national interest. We want to strengthen the PBS and we will strengthen the PBS because Australians need us to – not weaken the PBS because American multinationals would prefer us to. And so, whatever comes out of DC, whatever announcements are made in the next little while, we have spent a lot of time engaging, speaking up for and standing up for Australia’s national interest and we will continue to take that approach. We are well placed and well prepared to deal with whatever the decision is out of Washington DC.