LIVE

Fri 4 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day Seven of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

This blog is now closed.

The Day's News

Good evening – see you Monday?

We are going to leave it there, because we all have just one precious life and honestly, you deserve an early mark.

A very big thank you to everyone who has followed along with us this week. We will be back Monday with Day 10 (honestly, if you are following the campaign blow by blows on the weekend and not getting paid to do it, then maybe you might need to touch some grass. I say that with love. Free yourself.

Week two of the election campaign is where we are going to have the first debates so there will be a lot of people doing a lot of preparations for that and then of course, there is the blow by blow of whatever moment captures the media and public attention.

So brace yourself for that.

But also – make sure you have a few breaks of doing nothing except enjoying a simple pleasure and spending time with those you love. It’s rough out there and it can seem very overwhelming, but it is important to find the light when you can.

As Dan Savage so eloquently said: “during the darkest days of the AIDS crisis we buried our friends in the morning, we protested in the afternoon, and we danced all night, and it was the dance that kept us in the fight because it was the dance we were fighting for”.

You can’t keep up the fight if all you are doing is fighting. Sometimes you have to make time to dance as well.

I hope you get to dance a little this weekend. We’ll be back to pick up the fight, for facts, for bravery, for a better conversation, on Monday.

Until then, take care of you. Ax

Let’s take a look at how the AAP photographers have seen the campaign today:

You’re probably wondering how I ended up here. Well….record scratch

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Daily Telegraph’s Future of Western Sydney event

Bridget McKenzie looking like a match maker at an over 50s event

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton and Sky News head Paul Whittaker

Try as he might, Anthony Albanese just could not fit the entire child in his mouth at once

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese lifts up a kid as he visits Cabramatta Public school

Jason Clare isn’t a regular dad, he’s a cool dad

Australian Education Minister Jason Clare and Labor candidate for Fowler Tu Le play hotspotch with kids during a visit to Cabramatta Public school

Exchange rates and trade

Matt Grudnoff
Senior Economist

There is a lot of concern and commotion about the US imposing 10% tariffs on Australian exports. But it is important to put this in context.

Movements in the exchange rate over a year are regularly more than 10%. When the exchange rate drops by 10% that means Australian exporters are getting 10% more in Australian dollar terms for their exports. When it goes up by 10%, they are getting 10% less in Australian dollar terms.

For example, 6 months ago, at the end of September an Australian dollar was worth 69.4 US cents. 4 months later at the beginning of February it had dropped 11% to 61.5 US cents. Since then, it risen slightly to 62.7 US cents.

While these 10% tariffs will have an effect, they are not likely to be devastating, particularly for industries that have to contend with regular movements in exchange rates.

A lesson in fossil fuel lobbying tactics

And if you needed a lesson in how the mining industry works, here is a classic example.

Q: The Minerals Council of Australia has criticised the idea of a critical mineral strategic reserve saying it would undermine the financial viability of projects and be pointless. What do you think?
 
Husic: 

If I measured every day the Mineral Council were upset with something that governments were doing, I wouldn’t get my day done so I expect that type of comment out of them.
 

Q:  But they represent and understand the industry.

Husic:

Well, we have to do what we think is right in the nation’s interests. Sometimes there will be stakeholders that take a different view. There are a lot of other sectors, a lot of other industry players that recognise that we’ve got their back and that’s what we’ll be doing.

The policy has no detail. It is literally just a sentence ‘critical minerals strategic reserve’.

Which just means – keeping some critical minerals for Australia, instead of allowing mining companies, which pay very little tax and contribute very little to Australia, to take them all and sell for trillions of dollars of profit.

And yet, the framing of this is BUT WHAT ABOUT THE MINING INDUSTRY?

But mining lobbyists are very good at this. It’s why Andrew Carswell is appearing more and more in the media as a commentator on the campaign and politics in general and only being explained as a ‘former political advisor to Scott Morrison and consultant’ with no mention of the fact that he counts the Minerals Council among his consultancy clients. So he’s getting the opportunity to talk up nuclear (which the Minerals Council supports – gee, I wonder why) and criticise renewables in the media as if he is just commentating on politics and doesn’t have a vested interest.

And that’s how power works in this country.

You can add Ed Husic to the list of people spreading the ‘calm the farm’ message about the Trump tariffs.

He told the ABC a little earlier:

A big focus of our government has been to strengthen our economic resilience to help us weather events like the US’s self-imposed Inflation Day. I know they’re calling it Liberation Day but it’s really just about jacking up their own inflation. We have highly-sought-after in-demand exports because we’re a quality producer across a range of areas. If there are other countries that want to pay more for that because of stuff that they do themselves, that’s on them but we will, no doubt, continue and we want to continue making that high-quality product, which is why we’ve announced across a range of areas in the last 24-hours measures to sharpen up and strengthen even further our ability to be economically resilient and to ensure that our product can get exported to willing buyers in other parts of the world

Recap of the day

It has been one of those days where everyone is pretty happy to take the foot off the pace and just kinda coast along a little bit. But still, let’s look at what happened.

The Trump tariff hangover continues

The Coalition are still struggling to get a line on this – you get the feeling that they were counting on the Australian tariffs to be a lot worse than they were.

Dutton has said he would have used the prospect of defence contracts (which we are already locked into because of Aukus) and when that was raised, he said he would just expand Aukus to get Trump over the line (because apparently giving the US hundreds of billions of dollars just isn’t enough already)

Dutton has said he would use critical minerals to tempt Trump, which is something Labor has already done.

Both campaigns were in western Sydney for a News Corp conference

The day after the AFR said it was crazy Dutton hadn’t done a press conference in front of a petrol station given the fuel excise cut policy, Dutton did a press conference at a petrol station

The Coalition pledged another $200m or so for western Sydney infrastructure

There is still no detail on the gas policy

After facing criticism for being too close to billionaires like Gina RInehart, there is very conveniently a story from Coalition ‘sources’ that Rinehart has cooled on Dutton because of the gas policy that is still to be released (again DEIDRE CHAMBERS)

Labor has extended the $20,000 instant asset write off (WILL SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE TRADIES)

Labor has committed $200m or so to roads in western Sydney

Albanese’s favourite steak is a T-bone and he will be watching the Rabitohs play.

His dog Toto thinks the Bunnies symbol is actually a cartoon Toto

You’re up to date

Australia Institute View: RBA should call urgent meeting to cut rates now in the wake of Trump tariff chaos

The Australia Institute calls on the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconvene its monetary policy board immediately, rather than wait until May, to deliver the rate cuts Australians need now. 

It was clear the Reserve Bank was unwilling to make a decision on Tuesday because of uncertainty regarding the leveling of tariffs by the Trump administration.

Although it was clear even at the time that Trump’s tariff policy would result in a slowing of the global economy and risk rising unemployment here in Australia, now that the scale of the tariffs is known, the RBA should reconvene and cut rates rather than wait until May 19-20.

The Reserve Bank should get on the front foot and do what markets and economists know is an almost certain rate cut.  

Inflation is well within the target. Indeed, should the inflation figures for the first three months of this year be only slightly below average, the official CPI risks falling below 2%.

“The risks of the economy slowing more than anticipated are now heightened due to the Trump tariffs,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.

“The Reserve Bank was wrong not to cut rates on Tuesday. The Australia Institute has been calling for those cuts to help bolster spending and deliver relief to households who have suffered from price rises that are not of their own doing.

“Waiting until nearly the end of May is far too long. The RBA should be nimble enough to realise that the tariffs levied by the USA are an unprecedented move that is already sending shockwaves through the world’s economy.

“It should get out in front and cut rates now rather than wait for Australia’s economy to be damaged further.”

Here is the Coalition’s infrastructure announcement for western Sydney:

The Coalition has already committed $1 billion towards the future southern extensions of the Sydney
Metro Western Sydney Airport Rail, $500 million – to be matched by the NSW Government – to
duplicate Fifteenth Avenue, and the upgrade of Wentworth Avenue to fix the Toongabbie Bridge.
We are further investing in the future of Western Sydney with the following projects:

  • $117.5 million to complete the final leg of the Mulgoa Road corridor upgrade (Stages 5A and
    5B).
  • $50 million to deliver stage one of the Edmondson Avenue duplication project which will
    provide enhanced transport capacity to accommodate planned future developments of more
    than 20,000 homes.
  • $18.8 million for businesses cases to upgrade previously semi-rural roads that will be
    important to movement of freight to and from Western Sydney International Airport;
  • $15 million to plan for improved future transport connections with the Old Windsor Road-
    Windsor Road corridor and Werrington Arterial Stage 2 business case.
  • $15 million for to improve traffic flow and safety on Pennant Hills Road and Moseley Street,
    Carlingford
  • $10 million for improve traffic flow and safety Pennant Hills Roads and Evans Road,
    Carlingford
  • $5 million for the intersection improvements at the Kissing Point Road entry to Quarry Road,
    Dundas

Tasmanian Labor candidate falls into line on native forestry

At one point this year, Labor thought it might have a chance of winning the Tasmanian seat of Bass, which is held by the Liberal’s Bridget Archer. Archer seems to be loved by everyone but her own party so it always seemed a bit of a dream, but still, Labor had it on their list.

Jess Teesdale is running there and on an ABC radio interview yesterday said she opposed native forest logging. Which is not Labor policy. Today, she has ‘walked that back’ which is code for ‘she’s been told she messed up and told to fall back into line’.

Greens senator Nick McKim said it’s a lesson in party politics:

After repeatedly overriding his Environment Minister on national environment laws, the Prime Minister is now intervening to crush dissent on forests in Tasmania.” 

Labor is in damage control because they know that opposing native forest logging is supported by a majority of Australians and a majority of Labor members.”

Ms Teesdale is learning that in the Labor Party your personal opinions count for nothing compared to the views of the faceless men and Labor’s donors.”

You toe the line or you get crushed.”

While Liberal senator Jonathan Duniam said the Liberal party is united that native forestry needs to continue and said:

What is concerning is that at the last election, the Prime Minister made a promise to the Tasmanians that he’d protect native forestry. He’s got a candidate who clearly, her personal view is, that it should no longer exist. I just don’t buy that there’s any walk back from the one word answer, which is unequivocal.

Except it is not true – Labor isn’t wavering on native forest logging, no matter how many people connected with the party wish they were.

On the seat of Fowler and Labor’s candidate Tu Le, Albanese says:

I have supported, encouraged very strongly Tu Le to run for Fowler. She’s a gun candidate. She is a future Cabinet minister. You can have the – the people of Fowler can have an independent waiting for decisions to be made saying as Peter Dutton has said – that the first call he’ll make if he’s in a minority situation will be to Dai Le. Of course a former Liberal Party candidate. But someone who now sits as an independent. If you’re an Independent, you wait for decisions to be made and then decide whether you support them or not. Or you can have someone who’s a future Cabinet Minister. I have no doubt Tu Le is that. I think she’s outstanding. I encouraged her to be the candidate and I think she’ll make a fantastic member for Fowler.

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