Swings (at this early stage) in…
Leichhardt (to Labor)
Andrew Gee in Calare
Lindsay (to Labor)
Sat 3 May
Australia Institute Live: Election 2025 results. As it happened.
This blog, much like the 2025 election, is now closed.
Key posts
The Day's News
Richard Marles is getting his live crosses out of the way early.
I suspect he’ll have his first Pinot before me.
He’s done the ABC, now on Sky.
Taking questions from Murray Watt!!!
He says the longer the campaign went on, the better he felt about holding seats in Victoria.
That follows Jim Chalmers saying earlier that Labor started the campaign seeking to offset any losses in Victoria.
Very early count in the ACT seat of Bean, but independent candidate Jesse Price has come out of the blocks and is ahead in the booths which have been counted so far.
It’s early, but that is unusual for the ACT.
James McGrath is still defending the campaign:
Of course I’m going to defend it. As James Paterson set on 730 last night, prickly in relation to the work from home policy, that when a mistake is made and that policy was a mistake and we admitted it as such and it was dumped.
And I think we should be praising politicians to admit when they make mistake rather than those politicians likely prime who keep going on and telling lies, which is what the Prime Minister has done throughout this campaign, so I think it’s a good thing that politicians admit when they make mistakes…
We have already had Antony Green’s computer not work, which is one of your bingo squares!
Some of the first results we have coming in is a small early swing to Labor in Fowler.
Dai Le was speaking on Friday about the “Labor lies” she says has been deployed in her electorate, so keep an eye on that.
Coalition senator James McGrath is also on the ABC, and he is defending the Coalition’s campaign, which let’s be clear, no matter where the votes land tonight, was an absolute shit show.
When people and focus groups were given an example of this is plan A and Plan B, people clearly preferred our plan.
The challenge for us is that my view has always been at the Prime Minister was going to call an election in May and I was on the record for that because the Labor Party needed to do two things. They needed to rebuild their economic narrative and they needed another budget to do that.
Because the cost of living has been the number one issue in Australia.
…In terms of what did Labor need to do, they needed a later election because they needed to try to do something about cost-of-living because they were behind in relation to that but they also needed to run a God Almighty scare campaign against Peter Dutton and that is what we have seen.
Does Jim Chalmers think that Anthony Albanese is a ‘confidence player?’ He tells the ABC:
That was a mistake to underestimate him so I think first and foremost the prime ministers performance [is to thank for the campaign]
Secondly I think the way that we got back in the game on the cost of living. I think by most measures, public and private polling, we were at parity on the cost of living or better in some polls. In some of the research that I have seen, the question of under which side of politics would you be better off in three years, we ended up ahead on that measure in research that I have seen so the economy became a positive rather than a negative.
I think the interest rate cut was part of the story.
Does Jim Chalmers think Labor have done enough to win voters?
I would say we take no outcome for granted tonight, obviously, we have taken No vote for granted in this campaign.
But I think to be frank with all of the viewers we were in all sorts of the end of last year, we were in all sorts of trouble. And I think the way that we got back into the contest, such that there are a range of possibilities tonight as the count evolves, is really about three things, first of all, and probably most importantly, I don’t think I’ve seen a prime minister campaign as well as Prime Minister Albanese has, not just the last five weeks, but really since we rolled into Gympie at the beginning of January.
Queensland could give Labor the majority it wants.
So what do we know?
Victoria is hard for Labor. Very hard it seems. And as Jim Chalmers has said on the ABC, the campaign became about overcoming the losses in Victoria.
Chalmers:
There is nothing left to be done. You’re in the hands of the people, as it should be. For us I think the key will be, we’re playing defence in a lot of places, but we can limit our losses in Victoria, in particular, and if there are losses of seats whether we can make up for them, primarily in Queensland, where we are from, but instead, for example, in South Australia, maybe northern Tasmania.
So, think whether we can limit those losses I think there will be seats changing hands in both directions not come all directions tonight, details as well, whether we can limit our losses, in Victoria, and make up for them elsewhere, but again in Queensland.
That’s because in Queensland, Labor could win up to an additional five seats.
Polls close!
And we are off – the count is on!
Get your snacks and your drinks – we are ready to go!
(Unless you are in WA – see what you guys do soon!)
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