Bill Browne

On Saturday, Tasmanians elected a new parliament – just 15 months on from the last election in the state. While the final results are yet to come in, what we know so far suggests the House of Assembly (the Tasmanian lower house) will be very similar in raw numbers to the previous House.

Tasmania went into the election with 14 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 3 independent MPs and 3 MPs formerly of the Jacqui Lambie Network.

Election analyst Ben Raue predicts the result of the election will be 14 or 15 Liberal MPs, 10 Labor MPs, 5 Greens MPs, 4 independent MPs and either a Shooters MP or another Liberal MP.

Read his thorough blog post for more details on the election result.

In other words, Premier Jeremy Rockliff will face a parliament similar to the one that voted no confidence in his government just a couple of months ago.

The easiest way numerically for Labor to form government would be to negotiate with the Greens, something Opposition Leader Dean Winter reiterated on Sunday that he was unwilling to do. However, Australia Institute polling shows more than twice as many Labor voters support Labor forming government with Green and independent crossbenchers as oppose (61% agree vs 25% disagree).

This is the parliament Tasmanians have chosen – one very similar to the one they chose last year.

Fortunately for Tasmania, there are many ways of sharing power. This latest Tasmanian parliament is the 26th power-sharing parliament Australians have elected since 1989. Australia Institute research finds great variety in how power is shared, and what is negotiated in exchange for supporting the government:

• Parliamentary reform, like allowing for private member’s bills to be debated and voted on.
• Policy reform, like environmental commitments or truth in political advertising laws.
• More staff and resources, so MPs can properly scrutinise each piece of legislation
• Crossbenchers serving as ministers alongside major party ministers.

Our research also shows that most power-sharing governments see out a full term (which is four years in the case of Tasmania) and are often re-elected. They can be very successful in implementing policy reform; indeed while Labor is reluctant to work with the Greens again in Tasmania, there has been a long-running and productive collaboration between Labor and the Greens in the ACT.

One possible way through for the Tasmanian parliament is what’s called a “grand coalition”. That’s where the two major parties form government together, in an alliance of the centre-left and centre-right. This would be unprecedented for Australia, but is common in some other Western democracies.

Earlier in the election campaign, former Greens leader Bob Brown suggested a grand coalition made sense given the major parties’ agreement on issues like the AFL stadium. Psephologist Malcolm Mackerras made a similar argument, suggesting the position of premier could rotate between Rockliff and Winter.

One thing the election should do is dispel the notion that power-sharing governments are punished by the Tasmanian electorate. The Rockliff Government has faced its second election as a minority government, and did about as well at this election as it did in the last (in fact, it looks to have done better in primary vote terms).

Matt Thistlethwaite was the chosen Labor sacrifice for a political Sky News panel this morning, where he was asked about the prime minister’s three priorities: passing the HECS legislation which will lower HECS debt for existing students (while doing nothing for students who are about to be slugged with the new fee structure set by the Coalition – which if you want to study arts, (I have a Bachelor of Journalism which is basically an arts degree) means you will be going deeply into debt just because the Coalition didn’t like Arts (who needs critical thinking and media literacy in this climate?!) and Labor have done nothing about it – as well as putting the new penalty rates into law, and child care safety laws.

Oh, and the Productivity round table.

Thistlethwaite said:

Well, we’ve got a clear agenda that we took to the last election, and the focus really is on cost of living support for Australians. So, on the 1st of July, a number of those measures began, like the energy rebates, PRAC payments, as you mentioned. Our first pieces of legislation will be reducing student debts and ensuring that we’re protecting penalty rates. So, we’re going to get on with delivering the mandate that we sought and had approved from the Australian people, and that’ll be our focus.

Obviously, with the Productivity Roundtable coming up, business and unions are going to have their ideas, and we welcome people putting their ideas. But we want to try and bring everyone together on a consensus basis to ensure that we’re putting in place policies for the future that we can grow our economy and improve living standards.

The Australia Group are meeting tomorrow.

What’s that?

It was established under the Hawke government in 1985 and is designed to promote the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It was created in response to Iraq’s use of chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran War. Australia is still a permanent chair and secretariat of the group, which has expanded from 15 countries originally to 42 countries and the EU.

Penny Wong says:

Through Australia’s leadership of the group, we have played a pivotal role in preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

At a time of rising global tensions and increasingly complex challenges, the Australia Group remains responsive to dynamic international events and technological developments to ensure it remains ahead of emerging proliferation threats.

But given Australia has not sanctioned Israel for its use of chemical weapons against civilian populations, or indeed sanctioned Israel for it’s slaughter of civilians in Gaza, and can’t even call out breaches of international law, it all seems a bit hollow, doesn’t it?

Looking at both Sussan Ley’s and David Littleproud’s comments there, you can’t help but notice the lack of cohesion.

Ley is pretending that the Coalition is going to be constructive. She also sayus that Australians want an opposition that will not just get out of the way:

Australians deserve the strongest possible Mr Albanese is giving interviews and suggesting we should just get out of the way – well, we will not. Our job is to represent the millions of Australians who voted for us and the millions who maybe did not but still expect us to be the strongest and best opposition that we can be and we will be.

But at the same time, claiming that Australians want a government that will get out of the way:

We are here for the values that we have always stood for as a Liberal Party. For hard work, reward for effort, a government that gets out of the way. That is what people expect. They want to Parliament that understands their lives and what their lives are like and a government that gets out the way.

So Ley says Australians, who just reduced the Liberal party to their lowest level of representation ever, a complete and utter repudiation of the party and what it stood for – which has been compounded in the time since the election, where the Coalition has gone BACKWARDS – actually want the Coalition to throw its (limited) weight around and want the government to get out of the way.

Kay.

Meanwhile, David Littleproud says the Coalition’s job is to FIGHT and actually NOT change. Because even though the Nationals are a fringe party now, and are threatening to blow up the bit of power they do have by splitting the Coalition, everything is fine and it is the voters who are wrong. Or something.

The fundamentals have not changed and we do not need to change but we need to prepare to have that fight. We will agree where we can but where we must we will hold true to our values and beliefs and have the courage to stand up. We will do what is right for this country and articulate a different vision, where we need to and be constructive where we can.

That is what the Australian people expect. That is what the Australian people expect of each and every one of us, to come to this place and make our country better. That is not rolling over on everything, it is about making sure that we stand up where we need to one values and principles that will change our country for the better.

Get your popcorn now fans.

David Littleproud is now pretending the Nationals are still relevant, while standing next to Ley, like he didn’t try to blow up the Coalition in the days after her mother died by announcing a ‘split’ which is now on hold, while a bunch of pointless reviews are underway within the party.

Littleproud:

The hard work starts today. The fundamentals in this country have not changed. Australians are still doing it tough and Anthony Albanese has been swanning around the international stage* and has forgotten that there are Australian struggling to put dinner on the table tonight, were struggling to pay energy bills, who are unable to insure their own homes** because he has let the fundamental slip away.

The fundamentals have not changed and we do not need to change but we need to prepare to have that fight. We will agree where we can but where we must we will hold true to our values and beliefs and have the courage to stand up. We will do what is right for this country and articulate a different vision, where we need to and be constructive where we can.

That is what the Australian people expect. That is what the Australian people expect of each and every one of us, to come to this place and make our country better. That is not rolling over on everything, it is about making sure that we stand up where we need to show our values and principles that will change our country for the better.

So, please, we have to be humble for what has happened to us but we can do one of two things. We can sit in the fetal position in the corner and give up or come out swinging.

And we will come out swinging. We rely on the collective wisdom of this room to be able to come forward and collectively put forward a cogent argument to the Australian people over the next 2.5 years. We have time, no matter what it looks like today, it will be a different landscaping 2.5 years time if we stay committed and focused and stay together.***

*Shoring up relationships with Australia’s largest trading partner – which the Nationals constituency relies on.

**That’s because of climate change, which the Nationals are actively trying to derail any action over.

***HAHAHAHAHAHAH

Here is part of Sussan Ley’s rah-rah to the Coalition party room. The room has the energy of the Gold Coast Titans in the final rounds before finals or my phone battery around midday (loooooooowwwwwww) if you’re not a NRL fan.

Less than half of this room support Ley as leader by the way.

Ley:

We also know that we are an incredibly strong and talented team and when I look around this room it brings a smile to my face to see what amazing quality we have with the colleagues in both Liberals and Nationals who are out there fighting the fight, prosecuting the case and taking it up to the government.

But the real work in the Parliament of Australia will start this week and I am up for the job, I am excited and I know all you are as well. We will not be judged by the headlines of the day, what we will be judged by is what we offer the Australian people at the next election*. And Australians deserve the strongest possible [offering].

Mr Albanese is giving interviews and suggesting we should just get out of the way were we will not. Our job is to represent the millions of Australians who voted for us and the millions who maybe did not but still expect us to be the strongest and best opposition that we can be and we will be.

Now I said this before and I will say that again, if the Prime Minister and his team bring forward constructive policy in the national interest we will support them and we will work with them, a good example of that is the child care legislation. We want to see implemented for the safety of children in child care centres across this country. But if they do not do that, if they bring forward legislation not in the national interest and not in the interest of Australians then we will fight them every step of the way.

*Predicting now they lose more seats.

Also happening today, Sussan Ley will address the joint party room ahead of the week’s parliament sittings.

What a fun time for her! The Coalition’s primary vote (according to Newspoll) is at 29%. That is also the representation of the Coalition in the house of representatives (a historic low. Before that, the lowest was 31% and that version of the Liberal party collapsed). The Newspoll analysis breaks down this as about 23-24% support for the Liberals.

It is even worse when you break it down for the Nationals, which hold at best, 6% of the primary vote.

One Nation is doing better than the Nationals.

You know – the same Nats that are demanding to set Coalition policy? Despite being, at best, a fringe party with fringe representation? Yeah.

Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese, his son Nathan and a few friends (security detail) walked from The Lodge to Parliament today to start the day off, as captured by The New Daily’s Mike Bowers:

For those who didn’t see the news yesterday, ABC reporter Peter Ryan passed away yesterday.

Anthony Albanese paid tribute on twitter.

Events have a way of dictating responses, which is why the federal government is trying to come up with a national solution to the working with children checks.

You would have seen the horrific reports that have led to the calls for the government response. 

Attorney-general Michelle Rowland told Sky News yesterday that a national working with children checks is the first standing item on her agenda for meeting with the first law officers (a standing meeting of attorney-generals) and that there are other recommendations in the 2015 Royal Commission into Child Sexual Abuse which can be looked at.

(Yes, the report that is now 10 years old)

Education minister Jason Clare has also been tasked with finding solutions.  So while the government will be looking to put its agenda to work, it is also going to have to find solutions to this, and quite quickly.