Should Australia have more politicians? I would firmly answer yes.

Former Liberal minister George Brandis is more ambivalent. He argues in the Nine papers this week that: “The argument for increasing the size of the parliament is a respectable one” because of Australia’s growing population but that an increase would favour the Labor Party in the House of Representatives and the Greens in the Senate.

Brandis cites concerns from Liberal–National Senator James McGrath, suggesting these views are held by currently serving Coalition MPs as well.

Election analyst Ben Raue has a great blog post explaining why these concerns are unfounded. 

An increase in the House of Representatives would increase seats everywhere, with no obvious partisan benefit.

And the corresponding increase in the Senate would benefit the Greens less than almost any other party!

This year, I have criticised the Albanese Government for some blatantly self-interested decisions. But there is no reason to believe an increase in the number of politicians would fall into that category. The main beneficiaries of an increase? Voters and Australian democracy.  

The Optus Triple 0 fall out continues. The communications minister met with Optus owners Singtel about the Triple 0 failure two weeks ago, which had devastating impacts for people calling for help and finding their calls unable to go through.

Wells said the group have promised to restore trust in the system:

I also asked Optus to appoint external accountability to make sure that Australians can take advice not just from Optus themselves but from an independent and external party that the systems in place in Optus will serve Australians when they need the most.

And that is it – these last doorstops at the airport (or the hotel lobby before the airport) on these trips tend to be very short because they are just responding to some of the domestic issues of the day – so it’s a whoosh whoosh press conference if you will.

Usually the media and politicians are sick of each other by this point and are just getting some grabs to settle down their newsrooms back home.

And on the Trump administration giving the Aukus deal a tick after its ‘review’ (a reminder that Australia remains the only Aukus nation which has not reviewed the deal):

Well, the AUKUS review remains ongoing, but we’ve been participating very constructively with it, and AUKUS has been meeting its milestones. And that is why, in discussions I’ve had with the United Kingdom and with the United States, there has been support for it. We know that AUKUS is in the interests of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It is about a partnership which is in the interests of all three nations, which will make peace and security in our region so much stronger.

And on Optus’s response to the Triple 0 outrages:

Well, we’re not satisfied with any of Optus’s behaviour. Optus has let down its customers and it’s let down the nation. There will be, of course, ongoing investigation into how exactly this has occurred. Minister [Anika] Wells has been very strong, as is entirely appropriate here, for what is an unacceptable failure of service by Optus to its customers and to the nation.

The prime minister is still in the UAE – he is holding a press conference just before he hops on the plane to come home after his 11-day trip to the US and UK (the UAE was a little side stop on the way back to discuss a few things, including bringing a new supermarket competitor to Australia)

Let’s tune in on some of what he is saying:

On the Trump Gaza deal:

Australia has long called for a ceasefire. We’ve called for the hostages to be released and for Hamas to give up its arms. I certainly have welcomed the opportunity to discuss the plans for a ceasefire moving forward over the past week with a range of leaders.

Australia affirms the plan’s commitment to denying Hamas any role in the future governance of Gaza, calls on Hamas to agree to the plan, lay down its arms, and release all remaining hostages. Australia wants to see aid given to the desperate people of Gaza who need this peace plan. We commend the focus which is there in the plan for Palestinian self-determination and statehood, and the Palestinian Authority’s support for the plan, along with so many other nations in the region and countries which have large Muslim populations such as Indonesia and Pakistan. Australia urges all parties to engage seriously with the plan, and to work to bring its vision into reality without delay. Together with our partners, Australia will continue to support efforts to end the war and work towards a just and sustainable two-state solution.

Senior economist Matt Grudnoff has written on the ‘fearful and frozen’ RBA ahead of today’s decision:

The RBA has cut interest rates three times this year and each time it has come in the board meeting after the Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its quarterly read on inflation. It seems that each time it cuts rates, it needs to be reassured about where inflation is.

This means that interest rates are being set for where the economy was four months ago and not where it will be in the next year.

Each time the board has got its forecast wrong, it has been because it has misjudged how unemployment impacts inflation.

Recently it has been overly concerned that unemployment is too low. It wrongly believes that businesses face a shortage of workers that will lead to rapidly rising wages, which in turn flow into higher prices and higher inflation.

Despite this, inflation has steadily fallen.

With the ABS not releasing its next quarterly inflation figures until the end of October, we are unlikely to see the RBA act until its November meeting.

The ABS did release monthly inflation figures last week, but these are far less reliable than the quarterly numbers. The bank has consistently said the monthly figures have little impact on its interest rate decisions.

For the 12 months to August, inflation increased to 3 per cent, but at the same time prices in August fell 0.1 per cent. The RBA’s preferred measure, the underlying rate was 2.6 per cent. This is almost exactly in the middle of its inflation target band of 2-3 per cent.

The Reserve’s inability to understand the drivers of inflation spells ongoing problems for Australia. By always looking backwards, it is reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy.

But it also means that unemployment is higher than if it better understood what was happening.

You can read the rest of that, here

Anthony Albanese has released a statement on the Trump Gaza plan:

Australia welcomes President Trump’s plan to bring peace to Gaza after almost two years of conflict and a devastating loss of civilian life. 

Australia has consistently been part of international calls for a ceasefire, return of the hostages, and flow of aid to Gaza. 

I welcomed the opportunity to discuss this plan with other leaders over the past week.

Australia affirms the plan’s commitment to denying Hamas any role in the future governance of Gaza, and calls on Hamas to agree to the plan, lay down its arms and release all remaining hostages.  
 
We commend the plan’s focus on Palestinian self-determination and statehood, and the Palestinian Authority taking back effective control of Gaza. President Trump’s plan reflects a clear rejection of annexation and forced displacement of Palestinians. 
 
We acknowledge the diplomatic efforts to include Palestinian, Arab and other key partners’ views in this plan, as demonstrated by the statements of support from the Palestinian Authority.
 
Australia urges all parties to engage seriously with the plan and to work to bring its vision into reality without delay.  
 
Together with our partners, Australia will continue to support efforts to end the war and work towards a just and sustainable two-state solution.

As Trump takes a sledgehammer to American democracy, Australia’s leader snagged a selfie – and a one-on-one meeting in October. How that will go is anyone’s guess.

On this episode of After America, Crikey’s Charlie Lewis joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the apparent obsession of Anthony Albanese’s opponents with that bilateral meeting, the transformation of the Republican Party under Trump, and how Australia’s political landscape is being influenced by MAGA.

There is absolutely no expectation that the RBA will announce a rate cut today at 2:30pm. 

Back in July investors were betting that there would be a rate cut by November and two by March next year. Now the RBA is not expected to cut rates at all until March:

At 2:30pm we will get the reasons from the RBA monetary policy board. 

In August, when it did cut rate, the board said “The Board nevertheless remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and potential supply” and I suspect uncertainty will again be the order of the day in its statement.

It is worth remembering that while it did cut rates in August, it didn’t in July, when everyone expected they would. Back then the board said “Nevertheless it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply.”

So yeah, sometimes uncertainty means we need a cut, sometimes it is the excuse not to cut. 

It is worth noting that the most recent GDP figures showed the economy in the first 6 months of this year grew only at an annualised rate of 1.7% – a fair way below the long-term average of between 2.75% and 3% that is needed to stop unemployment from rising.

This year, unemployment has been rising this year, and seems headed to 4.5%, which is pretty sad given in December there was very much the hope of locking in 4% as the ceiling.

But the RBA thinks we need more people out of a job so we all won’t feel confident about bargaining for better wage rises and instead will be content that we have a job. 

Good afternoon and hello and missings from the Australia Institute Live crew. We thought we would drop by for a few hours to help guide you through the RBA’s decision on interest rates.

Spoiler: it looks like the RBA board is going to continue to be cowards and not actually move on rates, despite all the indications showing the economy is slowing down. We’ll bring you some of why that is a silly decision, as well as the reaction when the rate decision is made.

Ready? I’m on my third iced matcha, so let’s get into it.