We are straight into it today.

Sussan Ley opens on aged care:

In much 2022 there was 60,000 Australians on the homecare package waitlist. The now Health Minister said that waitlist was “a national disgrace”. But, Prime Minister, under Labor the homecare package waitlist has skyrocketed, with more than 87,000 Australians now waiting. If a waitlist of 60,000 was a national disgrace, what words describe Labor’s crisis of more than 87,000 today?

Anthony Albanese:

I will ask the Minister to supplement, but can I say this, we introduced and passed through this parliament on a bipartisan basis the most significant reforms to aged care this century. We did that just last year and we did that after a royal commission described aged care in one word in its interim report, and that one word was “Neglect”. In one word. When we went to the 2022 election than we would put the nurses back in to a nursing home we were mocked by those opposite. Today 99% of the time there is a nurse in an aged care facility.

Mark Butler then steps up:

Over the last five years we have as a country pretty much doubled the number of homecare packages in the system from about 150,000 to little more than 300,000 and we will need to continue increasing as homecare package numbers vary significantly for really as long as any of us are in this parliament.

Because the oldest of the baby boomers, we know, are hitting the age of entry to the homecare package system and will hit the average age of entry into the residential ecosystem, which is why we particularly under the leadership of former minister wills in this area had to compress pretty much a decade of reform into just three years. Not helped of course, by the budget cuts that the Opposition Leader initiated as the Minister for Aged Care hrough the 2016 MYEFO that actually took money out of aged care, didn’t reform but resounded to general revenue, obviously contributing to the situation that led to the royal commission in the first place

On the night of the Tasmanian election earlier this month, it was clear that Tasmanians had elected a parliament where no one party holds a majority of the seats. But the exact make-up of those seats is still not known. Today is the last day they are collecting postal votes, so the full count will soon begin.  

The ABC’s Casey Briggs has a personal blog where he’s explained what’s going on.  

In short: there’s two seats where a couple of different parties are in the running. 

There’s also seats where the winning party is known, but not which candidate from that party will win.  

That ability to choose between candidates is one of the great strengths of Tasmania’s “Hare-Clark” electoral system: candidates compete with others from the same party. Popular, outsider or moderate candidates can get elected over the top of whichever candidate the party machine might prefer. 

Negotiations in a power-sharing parliament 

But even before the seats are settled, there’s discussion about who will form government – and what they will negotiate. Both Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor Opposition Leader Dean Winter have a path to power.  

Psephologist Kevin Bonham spotted that the Liberals are now running ads attacking Labor for (in the Liberal Party’s words) “doing a deal with the Greens” that will “destroy our economy and cost jobs”.  

But as the Australia Institute’s polling research found, most Tasmanians agreed that if the Labor Party is not elected in its own right, Labor should seek to form a government by working with the Greens and independents.   

Kate Crowley writes in Inside Story about the national trends and local factors that form the context for negotiations. She quotes the Australia Institute’s research on the 25 power-sharing governments that have formed in Australia since 1989:  

Analysing the twenty-five power-sharing governments at the state and territory level since 1989, the Australia Institute finds that they vary markedly, take time to negotiate, and typically result in the crossbench pursuing resources, reforms and occasionally ministries.  

They are usually based on formal agreements, involve the crossbench sponsoring legislation, and run full term.  

Such governments may follow elections, or form after a government loses its majority. Just as we see in Europe, it may not be the party with the highest vote that is able to form government. 

Greg Barns, a former Liberal Party advisor, describes the reforms this research highlights as ‘sensible’, including on environment, evidence-based drug law reform, and human rights protections. His opinion piece in the Hobart Mercury goes on to say:  

A power-sharing arrangement in Tasmania must include a commitment to… reducing corporate welfare, and ending regulatory capture which is most evident in the case of the salmon industry. 

The full research is, as always, freely available on our website.  

The ABS has surveyed discouraged job seekers since 2015, so we now have a decade of data on why people are not looking for work.

Overall childcare saw a big jump in the reason – up from 14% of the reason to 20% (this for both men and women)

Not surprisingly the biggest reasons for not looking for work due to caring for children is the cost of childcare. The good news is this is issue is much less of a concern than it used to be. In 2015,8.5% of people said the reason they were not looking for work was the cost of child care meant they had to stay home and take care of their child(ren); now it is just 5.7% of all people.

The problem though is that is a jump from 4% last year.

But that is not the only reason for the increase in child care being the reason that people are not looking for work. Last year, 4% of people said they were not looking for work because they preferred to stay home and care for their children (ie they chose not to send them to daycare); this year that rose to 5.6%.

Greens senator David Shoebridge said there is nothing stopping the Albanese government from putting the same sort of sanctions it has put on Russia, on Israel, for what it is doing to Palestine.

Shoebridge:

For too long, the Albanese Government has refused to act, and placed no pressure on the Israeli Government to end the genocide.  

We know what action looks like, we have seen it done before. We need to see it again. There is mass starvation in Gaza, and thousands of children are hours away from death. Inaction was never an option; it is not now.”

It is good that after two years of denial, the Albanese government is now acknowledging the horror occurring in front of our eyes. The Prime Minister must now impose sanctions, follow the words with action and end the two-way arms trade.

The Albanese Government’s position that there is nothing it can do to put pressure on the Israeli Government is a weak attempt to distract the public from its complicity. 

The Albanese Government will claim they are waiting for other countries to act so they can follow, but the Albanese Government has failed to impose sanctions on Israel to the level of other countries. 

Despite the spin from the Albanese Government, it is not in dispute that the Government has allowed weapons and weapon parts from Australia to be sent to Israel. Parts of the F-35 fighter jet were exported this month, and the Canberra-made R400 remote weapon system was used in Israel early this year. 

We stopped the arms trade with Russia. We can do the same with Israel,” Senator Shoebridge said. 
 

Meanwhile, Labor has wrapped up debate on the early childcare legislation in the house and passed it, meaning it is off to the senate where the negotiations will start.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission has had its first successful prosecution – a corrupt Western Sydney Airport official who attempted to solicit a $200,000 bribe was sentenced today to two years jail (served in the community).

There have been earlier successful prosecutions, but these were taken over from the NACC’s predecessor the Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity (which was much more limited in scope).

While it’s good to see some corrupt conduct rooted out and punished, the NACC has not yet shone a light on some of the major scandals that helped spur its creation. It may be investigating these, but without public hearings we simply don’t know.

When the Albanese Labor Government set up the NACC in the last term of parliament, it watered down the NACC’s power to hold public hearings to only “in exceptional circumstances”.

Most Australians say that the NACC should be able to hold public hearings whenever they are in the public interest.

Anthony Albanese has strongly rejected Israel’s claims that there’s no starvation in Gaza as “beyond comprehension”.

The prime minister was responding to statements made by his counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, and Israel’s deputy ambassador to Australia, during a Labor caucus meeting on Tuesday.

“While there is a caveat on any health information which is provided by Hamas, it is Israel that has prevented journalists from getting in,” he told the meeting in Canberra.

It comes after Mr Albanese on Friday declared Israel’s retaliation in Gaza following the October 7 attack on the nation state by Hamas had “gone beyond the world’s worst fears”.

Then on Sunday, he warned Israel had “quite clearly” breached international law by limiting food deliveries to starving civilians in Gaza, escalating his criticism of the Jewish state.

The prime minister spoke of his emotional response to images of gaunt and dying children in the Palestinian territory, while acknowledging increased airdrops of aid by Israel was “a start”.

“It just breaks your heart,” he told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday. 

Overnight on Monday, US President Donald Trump contradicted the Israeli prime minister by stating many people were starving in the Gaza Strip and suggested more could be done to improve humanitarian access.

Mr Netanyahu has said “there is no starvation in Gaza, no policy of starvation in Gaza …”

Israel’s deputy ambassador to Australia Amir Meron told journalists on Monday “we don’t recognise any famine or any starvation in the Gaza Strip”.

The number of Palestinians believed to have been killed is nearing 60,000 people, according to local health authorities.

While air drops of aid have been carried out into Gaza, humanitarian agencies say they aren’t enough to deal with worsening levels of starvation in the area.

At the caucus meeting, Mr Albanese was also asked about Palestinian statehood.

He referenced a Nelson Mandela quote, saying “it always seems impossible until it’s done”.

The prime minister has previously said any resolution on the issue would need to guarantee that Hamas, the de facto ruling authority in Gaza, which Australia has designated a terrorist group, plays no part in the future nation.

There would also need to be agreements on the rebuilding of Gaza and the West Bank, and a resolution of issues over the expansion of Israeli settlements.

Recognition of Palestinian statehood has been part of Labor’s national platform since 2018.

Labor is facing intensifying pressure to follow France in recognising a Palestinian state at a United Nations General Assembly meeting in September.

The Greens are calling on the government to impose the same sanctions on Israel as it had done so for Russia.

The minor party is also seeking a ban on buying items that can help fund the war, pointing to sanctions on pearls and truffles for Russia.

It has been a bit of a morning, so take a little bit of time to stare at a wall or have a little treat.

Bit of you time. We will be right back with what you need to know.

Today the ABS released its most recent survey of people outside the labour force.

To be in the labour force you have to be either employed or unemployed. Simple enough, but to be unemployed you have to be actively looking for work in the past 4 weeks. If you are not actively looking for work it means you are outside the labour force.

What the ABS has done is ask people what is their main reason for not looking for work. And thankfully they have divided the answer by men and women, which gives some pretty nice insight.

For men, the main reason they are not looking for work is education (either school or Uni/TAFE etc), and second is “had no need or want to work”. That is mostly retirees.

For women though the number 12 reason was Childcare. 30% of women gave that as the reason, compared to just 3% of men.

Plenty of people with a focus on climate today, as Chris Bowen meets with the UN climate chief, Simon Stiell to discuss Australia’s 2035 target. The Climate Change Authority, headed up by Matt Kean, is finalising its advice to the government on what the target should be as you read this.

The independents have a bit to say about it – from their joint release:

Independent MP for Wentworth. Allegra Spender

“Last week’s historic and unanimous ruling from the International Court of Justice confirms that all countries have a legal duty to slash climate pollution and do their utmost to reduce climate harm.

“For Australia, that starts with setting a credible 2035 target and backing it with real plans to limit warning to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees, or at most 2 degrees.

“The Climate Change Authority has said that reducing emissions by up to 75% by 2035 is ambitious but achievable for Australia. This is the kind of ambition we need to see from the government.”

Independent MP for Warringah, Zali Steggall

“Australia must step up with a strong climate target of at least 75 per cent emissions reduction by 2035. It’s not just good climate policy, it’s smart economic policy and it is our responsibility to future generations.

“We have the resources and technology. What we need now is the political will. Every fraction of a degree matters, and any further delay in mitigating emissions will cost Australians more in responding to climate risks and lost economic opportunities.”

Independent MP for Indi, Helen Haines

“Disadvantaged Australians face greater health risks and cost-of-living pressures from climate change. We must be ambitious in reducing these impacts on our most vulnerable.”

Independent MP for Curtin, Kate Chaney

“This next decade is crucial for the planet and Australia needs to pull its weight.  We should be setting an ambitious 2035 target, to provide the certainty business needs to drive the required investment to set up our economy for decades to come.” 

Independent MP for Bradfield, Nicolette Boele

“A weak 2035 target sells Australia short – on jobs, on climate, and on global influence. After working in clean energy for over three decades, I know this: ambition isn’t a risk – it’s the safest move we can make.”

Independent MP for Kooyong, Monique Ryan

“Climate Council modelling released last week, and backed by the Academy of Sciences, showed that a target 65-75% emissions reduction by 2035 would have us on track to global warming of 2.3-2.4 degrees by 2035- which would have an enormous human and economic toll.

“We must immediately commit to emissions reduction of at least 75% by 2035. To achieve that, we have to stop subsidising fossil fuel industries and commit wholly to decarbonising our economy.”

Independent MP for Mackellar, Sophie Scamps

“The science is clear – net zero by 2035 is the only target that gives us a strong chance of keeping warming below 2°C. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided means a safer, more liveable future for our kids.

“The Albanese Government has a clear choice: set the strongest possible 2035 target or fail future generations and fall short of the climate leadership Australians expect.”

ACT Independent Senator David Pocock. 

“I’m pushing for an ambitious but achievable minimum of 75% emissions reduction target by 2035 locked into law.

“The science is clear, and the Climate Change Authority says a 65-75% cut by 2035 is within reach. The UK has already committed to 81%.

“We need to aim high and plan for more. That’s why I support an aspirational target of net zero by 2035, with a legislated floor of 75%.”