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Mon 7 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day 10 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

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The Day's News

Jim Chalmers picks up that theme and runs with it:

So the global risks are real but we’re in good shape in Australia and we’re in good stead because of the progress we’ve made in the budget and the progress that Australians have made together in the economy. I invite to you compare and contrast the methodical and considered way that we have managed the budget and the economy over the course of the last three years, with what we’ve seen from Peter Dutton and the Coalition today.

Peter Dutton’s coalition is an absolute bin fire of cuts and chaos. Which would make Australians worse off. There could not be a worse time to risk wages and tax cuts and secret cuts in a world which is this uncertain.

Peter Dutton represents an unacceptable risk to our economy and to household budgets at the same time. There couldn’t be a worse time for Peter Dutton’s lower wages and higher taxes and secret cuts to pay for nuclear reactors.

Katy Gallagher takes advantage of this press conference to talk about Peter Dutton’s reverse ferrets on policy:

If we can make a comment on their shambles that is their public service policy and work from home. After campaigning for years for cuts to the public service, cutting 41,000 jobs, including mentioning it in the budget reply just a few weeks ago, Peter Dutton is now saying he didn’t really mean it.

On working from home, when he said that workers had to return to the office five days a week, he didn’t really mean that either. He tells us that 41,000 jobs will be cut by natural attrition, but front-line services will be protected.

The reality is where those high turnover departments, where we see turnover in public service, they’re in front-line public service agencies.

It’s simply not believable.

Jim Chalmers press conference

Jim Chalmers says forecasting is difficult enough in stable times, let alone the batshit crazy times we are currently in. And that in general, no one actually knows what Trump will do (he implies that, not says it directly)

Chalmers:

The direct impact of these tariffs, we believe to be manageable in the Australian economy, and the difference between the 10% levied on Australian imports into the US versus some higher tariffs opposed by other countries as well.

You can see all of these considerations reflected in the treasury modelling that we have released an hour or two ago.

This modelling has been briefed to the opposition as well, consistent with the right protocols in this caretaker period.

What our modelling shows is that we expect there to be big hits to American growth and Chinese growth. And a spike in American inflation as well.

We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy, but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well

The main point is this – real GDP to decline by 0.1% (estimated) and inflation to increase by 0.2% (on predictions

Treasury analysis of Trump tariffs has been updated

Here is what Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher are speaking on:

Factcheck: Working from home

Fiona Macdonald
Acting Director Centre for Future Work

The Coalition’s work from the office policy for Australian public servants has been abandoned but it is not clear that their views on this flexible work option have changed.

Peter Dutton and Jane Hume are reported as having said working from home created inefficiencies, harmed productivity and is much more common in the public than in the private sector. But is there any evidence to support these views?

The Centre for Future Work has today published a briefing paper reviewing the evidence on working from home, addressing the questions: Who works from home and why? Who benefits from working from home arrangements? Why do some employers (and politicians) want workers back in the office? What is the future for work from home arrangements?

Some facts:

  • More than one in three workers in Australia (36%) usually work from home at least some of the week.
  • According to the ABS, industries with the most employees working from home are Financial and Insurance Services, Professional Scientific and Technical Services, Information Media and Telecommunications, and Education and Training. Public Administration and Safety (including public servants) comes in fifth. 
  • Benefits for individuals include increased productivity and managing work and care balance, saving time and money spent on travel, giving parents and carers more work and employment option, and providing better access to work for people with a disability or health condition
  • Employees’ increased job satisfaction contributes to better retention and significant reduction in employee turnover.
  • Increased workforce diversity and access to a larger pool of workers have productivity benefits.
  • There is little evidence to support a view that productivity and workplace culture suffer as a result of employees working from home. In fact, organisations benefit when they manage work from home well. 

And here is that whole answer where Anthony Albanese seeks to exploit what is coming up in the focus groups – that the Liberal party has gone too far to the right and Dutton is a Temu version of Donald Trump. This is one of the under currents of the campaign – which is entirely on vibes – but the vibes are starting to take hold:

Peter Dutton lost another candidate overnight. I think the women of Australia will be asking themselves what is going on when Peter Dutton can endorse a bloke who has the views that he put forward over a long period of time, was a former candidate for the UAP. This is a part of the takeover of the Liberal Party by the hard right.

When you look at Alex Antic being number one on the ticket, he’s got his Shadow Health Minister at number two, a woman, Anne Ruston, who I would have some policy disagreements with on Medicare, but she’s the Shadow Health Minister. She’s been a Senior Minister in the Government, dumped for Alex Antic in South Australia.

In Victoria, here, you have a rump taking over. I mean, Jacinta’s opponent got hunted down by the right wing of the Victorian Liberal Party. You’ve got in WA all sorts of strange people with some very far right views who had to get dumped. There was a candidate every week going out. Roger Cook, it was hard for him to keep up during the State Election.

Goodness knows who they’re running in the Federal Election. They knocked off their sitting Members, Ian Goodenough knocked off, he’s running as an Independent. Poor old Member for Monash, he’d represented his local community for decades, he’s the Father of the House, I think, or maybe Bob Katter, but they’ve been there a long time. They knocked him off in preselection, just discarded, views weren’t right wing enough. I’m pretty confident we’ll be arguing not just to hold seats, but to win seats here in Victoria.

Labor’s finance team of Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher are holding a press conference later this afternoon – in response to the markets, tariffs and just general economic turmoil.

When he was asked how he would grow the economy in this climate, Anthony Albanese says:

Let’s be very clear about how you grow an economy. One way you grow an economy is by boosting productivity. And one way you boost productivity is by boosting infrastructure. So, this project here will enable people to get to the airport quicker. It will take cars off roads. It will make an enormous difference for productivity here in Melbourne, which is one way that you grow the economy.

And I’ll make this point.

My Government has provided not one, but two budget surpluses and yes, a deficit this year but a half of what was predicted. We have been responsible economic managers. We turned a $78 billion deficit into a $22 billion Labor surplus. A more than $50 billion deficit into a surplus above $15 billion and then halved the deficit that was protected. And we know that the finances of Peter Dutton are going to be diabolical because he’s got to find $600 billion for his nuclear reactors.

After not appearing at any petrol stations until Friday (the day after Phil Coorey wrote in the Fin that it was kinda insane Dutton hadn’t held a press conference at a petrol station, given the fuel excise cut policy, Dutton has now held his FOURTH photo shoot at a press conference.

Dutton just can’t get enough of filling up his car.

Leader of the Australian Liberal party Peter Dutton on day 9 of his 2025 Federal Election Campaign at Ampol Carrick in Tasmania, Sunday, April 6, 2025.

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