And we have a new line – Peter Dutton is now blaming Labor for the global economic shocks that the Trump tariffs are having.

WHAT POWER THE ALBANESE GOVERNMENT MUST HAVE!

DUTTON:

The Treasurer is talking about a 50 point reduction in interest rates which means obviously he sees a recession coming for our economy. He wouldn’t be talking about 50 points as a reduction next month if he didn’t believe there was going to be a significant souring of the Australian economy on his watch. (It is the result of the tariffs Trump has imposed on the WORLD)

He is completely out of his depth when it comes to economics and how to manage the economy. Australian families have paid the price for it. We have seen Australian families suffer because of electricity prices going up. Gas prices go up. Groceries are up by 30% in this country under our government’s watch. Not just families. Also small businesses. 29,000 have gone broke under the Albanese government over the course of the last 2.5, three years. That’s the legacy of this government. This election is about who has a better plan to manage our economy in very difficult and uncertain times? Who has the ability to keep our country safe in a very uncertain period in history? And we get closer to the election and I think Australians will continue to focus on who is better able to manage the economy and to manage the cost of living crisis Labor has created?

Labor didn’t create the cost of living crisis, it inherited it. Grogs has already given an explanation on inflation, but it might bare repeating here:

Don’t you just love it when a politician starts talking about a specific metric that they now would have you believe is the absolute most important and best way to measure something.

So, it is with Peter Dutton who is now fixated on “core inflation”, saying this morning “We have the highest core inflation rate of any of the G7 nations”.

What is core inflation?

Well, it’s basically just a way of measuring inflation that gets rid of the big rises and big falls – to measure more of the “middle”. Why do that? The RBA likes to use it because it helps then not get too worried if in a certain period something weird happens (like a cyclone sending the price of bananas sky high) that sees the official measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise or fall. In such times the “core” inflation probably won’t move much.

But the main reason Dutton is using it is it generally is slower to go up or down – and while the official CPI measure (the one that measures all prices) is 2.4%, the “core” inflation for the December 2024 quarter is 3.2%. Why is it higher, well have a look at all the price changes not counted in the core inflation:

If you are looking at that table and wondering why we would bother caring about a measure of prices that does not count electricity prices, childcare fees, petrol prices, fruit and milk prices, etc etc etc then I agree with.

The core inflation measure is purely of interest to the RBA and economists. But you pay all price rises, all price falls. The CPI is what matters for people – so care about that – and it is also why the government has done energy rebates.

So don’t worry about core inflation – it is also coming down, and in the next March quarter figures it will likely also be below 3%.

But what about the line that Australia has the highest core inflation among all G7 nations? Well, here’s the problem – countries measure core inflation in different ways. In the USA they use the “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy” which is an aggregate of prices paid by urban consumers for a typical basket of goods, excluding food and energy.

They also measure it each month, and in February it was 3.1%.

Here in Australia the ABS has also started to measure inflation each month. And as a result, it also now measures core inflation each month. So, what was it in February? 2.7%.

Peter Dutton might need to find another measure.

Each year the Fair Work Commission (FWC) sets the new minimum wage and also how much the award wages should rise. Although these are Australia’s lowest-paid workers, each year various business groups seek to blame them for inflation and any business difficulties.  Year after year business groups submit recommendations to the FWC arguing to limit the increase in wages to no more than inflation – and often even lower – because they say higher wage rises will cause inflation.

However, such fears are totally overblown.

Last week, our research on the minimum wage showed that over the past 35 years, increases in both award wages and the minimum wage have had no impact on inflation. We did this research in part to rebut these ongoing claims by business groups that increases in the minimum wage should not be above inflation for fear of causing a wage-price spiral.

That no wage-price spiral ever occurs is oddly never an impediment to business groups continuing to warn that it will happen should the FWC grant an increase in the minimum wage of more than inflation.

You can read more, here

Just to come back to David Littleproud’s comments because honestly – I am still absolutely flabbergasted that the man applying to be the nation’s deputy prime minister can openly say he doesn’t think some kids deserve civil rights, that those rights should be “put aside” doesn’t make more than a little ripple in the Auspol space.

Report after report from people who know their stuff point out the role governments have to play in reducing poverty and how that can have a direct and positive impact in lowering crime rates.

Give people money to live, and breathe and think and actually plan their future – and what do you know? Crime rates reduce. And even more noticeably, juvenile crime rates reduce. Because kids have what they need.

It is not just, hey we did this one program and not enough changed. It has to be a lifelong commitment to reducing poverty, addressing systemic issues of injustice, violence and racism, housing overcrowding, substance abuse and generational trauma and it can not be bouncing around from one program to the next based on political ideology.

We have a massive problem in this country of not listening to the experts and instead being guided by feelpinions and it is to all of our detriment.

You have to hunt for it, but the APS policy is now on the Coalition website. You can find it here.

It has obviously been retooled, but there is one line that jumps out immediately if you have been following this closely (like I have)

“We will achieve reductions by focusing on Canberra roles that are not frontline”

OK, but how? It doesn’t actually make sense. Because if you are relying in natural attrition to do your cuts over five years, than you can’t just wait for people in Canberra to quit their jobs. Because looking at the data, the separation rates – which is a fancy way of saying people quitting – is HIGHER outside of Canberra. So there are more people working in the public service who quit the public service outside of the ACT as a general rule. And if you are not touching national security, which is based in Canberra, HOW EXACTLY ARE YOU DOING THIS?

The Coalition are also trying to pretend that it wasn’t their original policy to cut the public service by 41,000 positions and that it was always going to be through natural attrition. Which is not what Bridget McKenzie said when she was asked about this last week – McKenzie said that they would decide where the cuts would happen after they won the election.

Hume is now trying to pretend that nothing has gone before the ‘natural attrition’ policy:

We actually never said that there were going to be forced redundancies. That was a Labor lie. It was a
Labor lie from the beginning. We had always planned to sensibly reduce the size of the public service over time. Now, at the end of that period of time, five years, there will be a savings of around $7 billion a year to the taxpayer. We think that’s really important to get the public service back to its right size, but
ensure that it’s also delivering the effective and efficient services that Australians rely on. We won’t’ be touching frontline services, and that’s why we won’t be touching national security portfolios.

Jane Hume said the Coalition will be releasing its “full public service policy” today, which is essentially the ‘on second thoughts…’ policy, although Hume, who spearheaded the doomed ‘get your patooties back into an office’ policy doesn’t think there was anything wrong with the wider point.

She told the ABC earlier this morning:

Today we will be releasing our full public service policy, and Peter Dutton and the Coalition have said that we will guarantee the delivery of the high quality, essential services that we know that Australians rely on.

But we’ll also reduce the cost and the size of the public service to reflect the most effective and efficient delivery approach possible. So part of this is about ending waste, Labor’s very wasteful spending within the public service and restoring a sense of respect for taxpayers money.

Now, part of that is that we will reduce the size of the public service by 41,000, and we’ll do that over five years.

Now, clearly this excludes military and reserves and will also protect the front line service delivery and the national security positions. But it will be done methodically.

It will be done through a hiring freeze and also through natural attrition. There will be no forced redundancies.

That’s really important and finally, we’ve also said that we will continue to support flexible working arrangements for the public service.

That has always been our position, but now it will also include opportunities to work from home. We very much respect those existing flexible working arrangements and we’ve said that we will enshrine them in future agreements so we’re not changing the current flexible working arrangements and that includes work from home policies.

Not sure how you can ‘methodically’ cut the public service by 41,000 people if you are doing it through natural attrition and a hiring freeze. Because you have no control over the cuts then. It’s just when they happen. Which is not methodical.

Westpac has released its consumer sentiment data – and no surprises, we aren’t feeling too good about spending at the moment.

Turns out having an ego-maniac in charge of the world’s biggest economy is kinda a bummer? And yes, it is directly related to Trump, because that was the week the group were polling sentiment and what do you know – batshit crazy tariff decisions meant people went from being ‘yeah, about the same’ to “OH MY GOD WHAT IS HAPPENING’ in the same week.

From the statement:

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6% in April, to 90.1 from 95.9 in March.

Matthew Hassan, Westpac Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, said: “Consumers are showing deepening unease about developments abroad:

Sentiment weakened sharply over the course of the survey week, with steep falls following the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ announced by US President Trump on April 2. Those surveyed before the announcement reported an index read of 93.9 down only slightly from March’s 95.9. Those surveyed after the announcement reported an index read of just 86.6, down nearly 10% compared to March.
The scale and breadth of tariff increases, which included a 10% tariff on Australian goods, came as a major surprise, triggering a sell-off in global financial markets.With the situation still deteriorating, there is a clear risk of more significant sentiment declines in the months ahead.”

If you’re watching the election campaign, you may have noticed something: you’re more likely to spot a swift parrot, Maugean skate, or Tasmanian tiger than you are to see a journo from a local paper at an Albo or Dutton press conference.  

That’s because the Australian local newspaper is now an endangered species. 

New Australia Institute research shows that News Corp has gone from publishing over 200 unique publications in 2016, to just 19 living, breathing papers today. The other 100 that it still lists with the Press Council are more like zombies – staffed by a skeleton crew of journalists and supplemented with auto-generated articles, without their own websites or print editions. 

The report also shows that: 

• 10 million Australians live in a city without comparable print media competition 
• A quarter of Local Government Areas have no independently owned local news outlet. Twenty-nine have no local news at all. 
• Australian Community Media has gone from publishing 170 outlets to just 62 today. 

Full report here: https://australiainstitute.org.au/report/newspaper-competition-in-australia/  

Katy Gallagher and Jason Clare held a press conference where there didn’t seem to be any questions, which makes it seem like perhaps there were no journalists there. (makes sense there are a million people talking and this was just a press conference to say the same things we are already hearing)

So the pair gave a statement.

Clare’s ended with the main message from Labor:

A couple of weeks ago, Peter Dutton said this. He said, ‘look at what politicians do more than what they say.’ Well, that should be a red light, flashing, warning the Australian people, he says, ‘look at what politicians do more than what they say.’ Well have a look at what he’s done. When he’s had the chance before, he’s cut funding to health, $50 billion worth. It shows that you just can’t trust Peter Dutton, whether it’s cuts to health or whether it’s cutting your rights to work from home. He doesn’t understand modern families, and he hasn’t changed. He’s just trying to con the Australian people a couple of weeks before they vote. The truth is, as sure as night follows day, he’ll cut and you’ll pay

David Littleproud then falls back to the debunked idea that this is just about a ‘lack of respect’ and not systemic issues within our justice system, how our governments deal with intervention programs, a lack of committed on-going funding, and not listening to experts, including First Nations experts with lived experience, on what works for their communities and children.

Littleproud:

Respect. There’s no consequence or deterrent. In society, you need to have a deterrent and a consequence for doing the wrong thing. No-one fears, I have the same problem in my areas. They come back better criminals. They don’t fear detention and don’t see it as anything to be worried about. You need to change up that deterrent and consequence. It’s not about a boot camp. It’s about rebuilding people as human beings and young people who do have a worth. They’ve never been given it because of the home structure around them and we have to rebuild that and sometimes that’s about doing something different than sending them in behind barbed wire. Sending them out and showing these young people that they are worthy. The one out West of Longreach, a 94% success rate. Great young human beings that came out of that and they’re contributing right across Queensland now because someone made an investment of doing something different. Showing them they did have value and that’s something that I think is money well spent. It might be a bit more expensive but it’s money well spent.