LIVE

Wed 9 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day 12 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

This blog is now closed.

Key posts

The Day's News

07.44 AEST

Jason Clare was also asked about Donald Trump’s tariffs, with Trump now vowing to put more tariffs on China in response to China putting equal tariffs on US goods it imports.

Yup, it’s all going fine.

Clare says:

What Donald Trump did was wrong. He is talking about reciprocal tariffs, they were reciprocal on Australia, they would be zero, because there’s no tariffs on American goods sent to Australia. That’s why we said this is not the action of a friend. You know, the bigger challenge here is a tit for tat trade war. You know, all countries increase their tariffs, then everyone loses. That’s why the Treasurer is meeting with the head of the Reserve Bank today, as well as the banks and the regulators. This is what a responsible government does. You can see from the assured sensible professional way that we’re dealing with this, stark contrast with Peter Dutton, screaming..

(Dutton isn’t screaming, but he did seem a bit miffed that things weren’t worse for Australia and his answer is that he would do everything the government is doing, but also beg more and give the US more defence contracts)

Asked if the US’s response to China’s response “will put us into recession” Clare says:

Of course not. Everyone loses from a trade war. But now is not the time to roll the dice with someone like Peter Dutton, talking about recession here. It’s not the time for US-style cuts or US-style politics here in Australia. The last thing that Australia needs right now is a pale imitation of the United States here in Australia.

07.33 AEST

Labor, which now stands as the only political party still trying to convince people there is a shortage of gas, is against the whole Coalition policy. And look – we are not fans of the entire thing. But the point the Coalition is making about using existing supply to create a domestic gas reservation and to tax the gas companies, is a well overdue one in Australia and is supported by pretty much everyone else in the parliament and any credible expert.

Jason Clare has been sent out to talk about the policy, which is how you know Labor really needs to have its excuses heard by people, because there is no one better than Clare in simplifying a message. But here, he is wrong.

This is not a policy, it’s snake oil. It’s not modelling. I think it’s just 125 words worth of assumptions. In the budget reply, they said they have a gas reservation policy. It’s just charges for people to put more gas in the system. Let’s call this for what it is. It’s a distraction from their nuclear reactor policy which is, I said, as popular as root canal. They won’t say what they’ll cut.

It’s a more feasible policy than the nuclear one and Labor is the outlier here on the domestic gas reserve using existing gas wells.

07.29 AEST

And we don’t need to break into export contracts to do it.

Matt Saunders wrote this ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum:

https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/as-pacific-islands-forum-meets-the-government-should-admit-we-do-not-need-more-gas/

But here is why we don’t need to break into contracts, or open new wells. See all that uncontracted LNG capacity? That’s the extra stuff we already know is there, but the gas companies are just holding onto, in case they get the chance to sell more of it offshore.

07.26 AEST

You are going to hear a lot from the gas industry over the next couple of weeks, talking about how any plans to tax gas will “hurt investment”.

When you hear those claims, we just hope you ask yourself – OK, where are they going to go instead? Japan, which has no natural gas but still manages to be a gas exporter because it imports more than it needs and on-sells the excess for more than it paid?

Norway, where they tax the oil and gas sector at about 78% – 22% corporate rate and a 56% special tax?

Qatar, which collects about four time the revenue?

Where exactly are the gas companies going? They are here because they want our gas. And we have basically given it away to them, so of course they are going to be upset that the gravy train ends.

And most importantly, we don’t need to open more gas wells to do this. Australia can supply its energy needs, with the existing gas wells.

07.12 AEST

The proposal to introduce a tax on gas exports ‘could raise billions of dollars’

The Coalition’s proposal to introduce a new tax on gas exports, designed to divert gas production away from exports and towards Australian households and industries, could raise billions of dollars, according to Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute.

Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of Liquified Natural Gas but, despite this fact, the largely foreign-owned gas industry has been making the bizarre claim that there is a shortage of gas in Australia,” said Dr Denniss.
Peter Dutton’s rejection of that silly claim, and his proposal to tax gas exports to encourage greater local supply, is a watershed in Australian energy policy debate.”

Research by The Australia Institute shows that more than 80 percent of gas produced in Australia has been used for exports, and more than half of those gas exports were given away, royalty-free, to the gas exporters.

Putting a tax on gas exports is an easy way to ensure that more of Australia’s gas flows to Australians and that they pay less for it,” said Dr Denniss.

Introducing a cap on gas exports as well would be an even better way to both protect Australians from cost-of-living pressures and protect the climate from increased emissions from burning gas.

The opportunity for Labor to expand on the Coalition’s policy is enormous.

For decades, the major parties in Australia have seemed afraid to put the interests of Australian taxpayers ahead of the profits of the fossil fuel industry.

But now that Peter Dutton has made the first step, the opportunities for the new parliament are unprecedented.

Norway taxes fossil fuel companies and gives young Norwegians a free university education while in Australia we subsidise the fossil fuel extractors and charge our kids a fortune to go to university.

It is time for Australian leaders to be brave enough to put the interests of the Australian
people ahead of the interests of the fossil fuel polluters.”

07.09 AEST

Australia doesn’t have a gas shortage and politicians are finally realising that’s a good thing

The Coalition is out today running very hard on its gas policy. The modelling for the policy was released last night in the midst of the debate. Now, this policy didn’t exist until very recently (which is why the modelling wasn’t out – much like nuclear, Dutton made the announcement, then the policy existed and then the work was done to stand it up) but unlike nuclear, that doesn’t make it all wrong.

There is a very important point in the Coalition’s policy and modelling which has largely been ignored by politicians, and the media, until now – Australia doesn’t have a gas shortage and the domestic population can be served with more gas without a single new well.

Last night Dutton said:

By making the gas companies put more of our Aussie gas into our market instead of exporting it, we will get the price of gas down by 15 per cent.”

And he is right. And you don’t even have to break into the export contracts to do it.

07.00 AEST

Good morning

Hello and welcome back to another day of Australia Institute Live. Every morning I wake up thinking no one is reading and every day I am humbled to see how many people are actually tuning in. We are taking on your feedback (and yes, that includes comments) and we love that you feel as invested in this as we do. It was an ambitious idea and it only exists because of the amazing work of the Australia Institute team – both the names you see and ones you don’t – and because of people like you.

In this cynical world and media space, that can be enough to get me teary.

OK, to the day.

After Sky and Daily Telegraph’s People’s Forum gave Anthony Albanese the win in last night’s debate – 44 to Albanese, 35 to Peter Dutton and 21 undecided – the News Corp mastheads have had to do a bit of a wiggle to declare Dutton the winner.

These people are deluded. The quote pictured is from Shanahan in the oz. Albanese won the vote in the room 44-35.

— Jonathan Green (@greenj.bsky.social) 2025-04-08T20:33:34.708Z

Which is still not as far as the Queensland LNP went.

Does any of this matter?

No, not really. There was no clanker of a performance, nothing that would tank either leader and more voters who didn’t see it, than did. (Hence the attempts to try and make it seem Dutton won – because more people will see that post than watched the debate/even knew it was on)

Campaigning continues in Sydney this morning before both leaders take off for their next step. Jim Chalmers and Angus Taylor are debating in a similar format tonight, which seems very unfair to Taylor who will be coming off an absolute rinsing delivered to him by a very prepared, Billi FitzSimons of the The Daily Aus. Turns out a pink cardigan can hide a razor sharp mind. Which Taylor should have known if he had any dealings at all with the CWA.

We’ll cover all the day’s events as they happen, with fact checks and some snark. You have Amy Remeikis with you for most of the day. Ready? My second coffee isn’t, but let’s get into it.

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