LIVE

Wed 9 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day 12 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

This blog is now closed.

Key posts

The Day's News

19.56 AEST

For the people at the back; spending is higher now because we have an NDIS

Greg Jericho
Chief economist

Just to repeat, the same graph and line I said last night during the leader’s debate. Spending is higher now because we have an NDIS. We did not use to have it. If you think the NDIS should not cost anything, then it might be time to go lie down for a very long time.

Take out spending on disability support, and this govt is not a big spending govt

19.55 AEST

Sky seems to have discovered there is a cost of living crisis.

The daylight anchors have been talking about the moment in last night’s debate when the host Kieran Gilbert asked those in the audience who was feeling the cost of living crisis and most of the room held up their hand.

And I mean, yes. Has Sky just discovered this? I would expect the vampires who host the after dark shows to have no idea, but why is this just suddenly an editorial epiphany?

19.53 AEST

Seriously, wtf is this debate

Matt Grudnoff
Senior Economist

Ross is asking what they’re going to cut if there is a downturn. You don’t cut if there is a downturn. They last did that during the great depression.

They then go on to say spending was high during the pandemic but that doesn’t count because it needed to be high during the pandemic.

It was high during the pandemic because the economy had turned down.

19.52 AEST

WTF is this debate

Greg Jericho
Chief Economist

Angus Taylor is betting on the confidence fairy delivering faster growth. This is exactly what Joe Hockey used to preach in 2013. It is a fantasy that does not face realty,

Also Ross Greenwood is suggesting you need to cut govt spending during a recession? That would deliver a depression.

I was sure most people had grasped what happened during the Great Depression when the Australian govt tried to “balance the budget” by cutting spending

19.52 AEST

Jim Chalmers:

Now, the reason why Angus was so evasive when you asked him to come clean on his cuts is because I think for the first time in our history, Angus is going to the election with three policies; First of all, to increase income taxes on every Australian taxpayer.

Second of all lower wages, and thirdly secret cuts to pay for nuclear reactors, and you can’t find $600 billion to pay for those nuclear reactors without coming after Medicare just like Peter Dutton did when he was the Health Minister

Angus Taylor says he needs to “stick to the facts” which is kinda hilarious.

There will be lower taxes. There will be lower taxes under a Dutton government (this is not true? It is the Coalition’s policy to repeal Labor’s latest tax cuts – which is not lowering taxes, it is increasing them) a lower fuel tax, 25 cents off at the Bowser, and immediately for every Australian guy’s fuel cost of living who buys fuel at the bowser, and you might dismiss that.

You might think that’s irrelevant, but let me tell you, you said you’re going to increase in my part, in my part of the taxpayer reducing fuel tax. That’s his policy. Real. It’s relevant, and it’s immediate, unlike your 70 cents a day in 15 months time.

19.48 AEST

Angus Taylor is absolutely tying himself into knots in this debate when he is asked about the Coalition’s planned cuts.

He is being rinsed ALMOST as well as in the interview with Billi FitzSimon, but I would say the Daily Aus editor in chief still has a nose in front here. No wonder Peter Dutton refuses to go on their podcast debate.

19.46 AEST

Greg Jericho
Chief economist

Angus Taylor is just straight out lying by suggesting that Jim Chalmers is forecasting either a recession or lower interest rates. All Chalmers was doing was saying that the market is pricing in 5 rates cuts.

Taylor is basically saying Chalmer is to blame for just reading a chart.

Want to know how fast things have changed? Well right now the market is forecasting a 77% change of a 75 basis point cut in May. That is the equivalent of 3 standard rate cuts!

19.46 AEST

Fact check: Is the Australian economy heading into recession?

Matt Grudnoff
Senior Economist

Trump’s tariffs are not enough to push the Australian economy into recession. Our goods exports to the US make up only about 1% of GDP and 10% tariffs doesn’t mean that all exports to the US stop. They might just drop a little.

But what about if the US economy goes into recession?

The main fear is that if the US economy goes into recession, this might weaken the world economy including Australia’s major trading partners. This would have a bigger impact but even then, a recession is not likely.

Remember the rest of the world is not putting up trade barriers between each other. If they are putting up trade barriers it is only between themselves and the US. This might well have a large impact on the US, but only a moderate impact on the rest of the world.

At the moment Treasury is predicting that the trade war will only shave 0.1% off economic growth.

While it might make for exciting headlines, a recession at this stage is unlikely.

19.45 AEST

Jim Chalmers is seemingly fighting his worse angels to just let loose at Taylor and says:

We don’t expect that, and that’s what I said earlier in the week, and Peter Dutton has lied about that multiple times since then.

And given the fact you have spent a lot of money and over the last 50 years, this is one of the highest spending governments, except for COVID, in the history of Australia, over that period of time.

Q: So what I’m wondering is, what shape is the government’s budget in right now, after that spending? Because even yesterday, the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he would keep on spending. He sees no reason not to keep on spending.

Well, first of all, it is important to remind everyone that we expect the Australian economy to continue to grow, and Angus and Peter Dutton should stop lying about that. That’s an important correction, an early correction, when it comes to the space in the budget. The budget is in a much stronger position now than it was three years ago, and that’s because I’ve delivered two budget surpluses. There’s been a $207 billion cumulative improvement to the budget. Bottom line, the debt this year is $177 billion than what we inherited. That’s saving $60 billion in debt interest over the course of the next decade today, and that gives us over the next 10 years, because that’s the issue, is that gives us more room, if necessary, to respond to these difficult global conditions

19.44 AEST

Q: Alright, I want to go to the markets now, as in the stock markets, they tell you something about the future. They tell you that the risk of a recession is much higher. Peter Dutton has said, basically, under a under a Labor government, if re elected, Australia will go into recession. Why wouldn’t Australia go into recession if there’s a coalition government in power, surely you’ve got to have if it’s good for one, it’s good for the other. You can’t avoid that.

Taylor:

Well, Peter is responding to Jim’s forecast, which is now forecasting interest rates cuts.

He likes to forecast, we need someone who wants to manage the economy, not just forecast, and he was forecasting big cuts in interest rates. Now that’s only going to happen if the economy is falling off a cliff. If there’s something that Jim knows about the economy falling off a cliff, he should be telling us

Interest rates under the Morrison government were as low as they possibly could be in Australia, so what does that tell you about how Taylor would judge the Morrison government’s economic management?

Subscribe The biggest stories and the best analysis from the team at the Australia Institute, delivered to your inbox every fortnight.