LIVE

Fri 11 Apr

Australia Institute Live: Day 14 of the 2025 election campaign. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

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Key posts

The Day's News

Latest visitor arrivals numbers released

Greg Jericho
Chief Economist

The latest visitor arrivals numbers came out today.

And while media love to focus on the long-term arrival numbers – because MIGRANTS TAKING OUR JERBS – I think the short-term arrival numbers (ie tourists) are perhaps one of the biggest indicators of just how much the pandemic changed things.

Prior to the pandemic the tourist numbers were growing strongly and consistently. Then the borders were shut.

They have now been opened and supposedly everything is back to normal. But normal ain’t normal anymore.

We have never got back to the same level of tourists we had in 2018 and 2019. And in February this year, there was an 8.2% drop in tourist arrivals compared to February last year. That is the second ever biggest February drop excluding the pandemic period.

Not great for tourism operators, hotels, hospitality workers.

Calls for AUKUS review gaining momentum

Frank Yuan
Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Three independent candidates for the House of Representatives (including two serving MPs) have now called for inquiry into AUKUS. Last night, Zoe Daniel, Independent member for Goldstein and former foreign correspondent, posted on social media calling for an independent review into AUKUS.

“AUKUS isn’t just about submarines — it’s about trust, leadership, and protecting Australia’s future. We’ve spent $800M with no plan, no guarantees, and no Plan B. I’m calling for a full, independent review. Good allies ask — and answer — hard questions.”

Another independent Monique Ryan had called for a parliamentary review into AUKUS earlier yesterday, and Nicolette Boele, independent candidate for the Liberal stronghold Bradfield in Sydney, called made a similar call yesterday, stating that ‘We need a Plan B’.

The UK parliament has launched an inquiry into AUKUS last week – it will “examine whether the partnership is on track and will consider the impact of geopolitical shifts since the initial agreement in 2021”. No doubt the British had in mind the disruptions caused by Donald Trump in the realm of geopolitics and now, spectacularly, global trade.

Allen Behm
Advisor, International & Security Affairs Program

Returning to another part of the Albanese press conference this morning: some journo thinks there’s a gotcha moment because the PM hasn’t read a Reuters report

The PM needs to repeat ad nauseam that the arms dealers and their advisors have a vested interest in war and the equipment that allows people to kill each other.

The role of government is to provide for the personal security and safety of every citizen, which is what education, health, NDIS, infrastructure investment, pensions, aged care all do.

ABC report on Australian firm trialing a weapon with the Israel Occupying Forces

The ABC’s Andrew Greene has a story about weapons from an Australian defence firm ending up in the hands of the Israeli military.

The Albanese government has spent the last 18 months since the genocide in Gaza began saying that Australia is not supplying weapons to Israel.

Australia DOES supply a part in the F-35s global supply chain, which the United States builds and sends to Israel, who use those planes to kill Palestinian civilians.

Greene reports:

Israel’s military has completed trials of an advanced weapon made by a Canberra-based defence supplier which boasts its “high precision” and “lethal” product can strike targets up to two kilometres away. 

The ABC can reveal the remote weapon system (RWS), designed and built by Australian company Electro Optic Systems (EOS), was one of dozens of counter drone technologies tested by the Israel Defense Forces earlier this year.

A defence industry source claims the Australian-made components were first sent to an EOS entity in the United States for assembly, before being shipped to Israel without an Australian export approval.

Albanese was asked about this at his Darwin press conference and said:

We do not sell arms to Israel. I’m aware of the report you referred to. We looked into this matter. The company has confirmed with the Department of Defence in particular system was not exported from Australia. Australia does not export arms to Israel.

Greene has more information and tells the ABC:

Well, it’s becoming a little bit clearer. Defence industry sources tell me that it was almost certainly assembled in the United States, this remote weapons system. It’s a bit of uncertainty about where the components themselves were made, it’s assumed here in Canberra, and then it was sent to Israel for this testing event earlier this year.

Now, for that to happen, it did not require an Australian defence export licence and the Greens Senator David Shoebridge is very critical of this.

Shoebridge told the ABC:

What we might be seeing here is the impact of what is called AUKUS pillar 2, the removal of any controls for the passage of weapons between Australia and the United States and then Australia permitting the United States to send Australian weapons anywhere they choose.

The company has released a statement saying it complies with regulations.

But yup, this is how it happens. Australia might not be sending weapons directly to Israel, but we are sending parts of weapons which are built somewhere else and then end up killing Palestinian civilians (and others in the Middle East given Israel and the United States have also attacked Lebanon, Yemen and Syria). That is why people say Australia is complicit. A part of a weapon is still a weapon part.

Recap of the morning

Enough has happened that we can do one of these today.

Liberal senator and official campaign spokesperson James Paterson has now added ‘voluntary redundancies’ to the opposition’s plan to cut 41,000 public servants. Previously the Coalition was saying it was just natural attrition (before that they were going to work out where they cut after the election) and that it would just be Canberra based, with no front line services impacted. Which is impossible. So now – voluntary redundancies are part of the plan

The Coalition is going to wind back the vehicle efficiency standards Labor passed (which are the bare minimum as it is) because they make the giant utes the Coalition have made their entire personality, more expensive.

Labor is promising $60m fot 120 aged care beds in Darwin, but there is no immediate plan to help with the overburdened system and waiting list.

You can now add ‘underwater bushfire’ to your climate change fears

While the major parties are doing their best to ignore climate change this election – although to be fair, the Coalition are promising to make things a little worse by basically ditching the bare minimum vehicle efficiency standards we have, and also re-assess our bare minimum emissions reduction targets – AAP has a report on how our reef system is, effectively, burning:

Australian corals reefs have been pummelled by unprecedented heat stress up to two times worse than has ever been recorded.

Roughly half of Western Australia’s coastline, including the UNESCO World Heritage-listed Ningaloo, has been enduring a reef-threatening marine heatwave and molecular ecologist Dr Kate Quigley warns higher temperatures are yet to subside.

“The amount of warming so far dwarfs the warming that had previously been seen on places like the Great Barrier Reef, which led to catastrophic bleaching and mortality in 2016 and 2017,” she said.

Providing an update on WA’s troubled reefs at the Indian Ocean Forum in Perth, Minderoo’s principal research scientist said the “underwater bushfire” was causing widespread bleaching.

The ghostly colouring is a recognisable sign of heat stress but corals can recover, though the likelihood of mortality increases the longer temperatures stay elevated.

Dr Quigley said in some extreme cases, corals were skipping the adaptive bleaching response to go “straight to death”.

“Instead of actually bleaching, the tissue just comes off the skeleton,” she said.

The scientist stressed stopping “the disease of climate change” was the answer to the world’s coral reef woes, rather than trying to address the symptoms.

The two-day event hosted by the French Embassy in Australia and the Minderoo Foundation is designed to gather perspectives from the Indian Ocean ahead of the Third United Nations Ocean Conference, to be held in Nice in June.

Peter Dutton has addressed the alleged terror plot which was aimed at him, currently in the Queensland courts. (An arrest was made in August)

The person charged is a child – 16-years-old – so there are no details legally allowed about their identity. The reporting says they went to a “prestigious private school” which doesn’t seem to be relevant at all, except to maybe challenge some people’s beliefs about who might think of allegedly committing this sort of act.

Dutton told the West Australian event:

Well, it’s been a brutal business, no question about that. It’s the reason my three children have been cured any interest in politics whatever, that we see as a small blessing. I feel an immense sense of pride, being able to work in the job that I work in, and – it takes a decision at some point in your life you want to abandon your anonymity and you want to contribute to a country you love very much. And that’s a decision that I took probably off my policing career, obviously, and seeing some of the injustices there, but also off my small business career and I believe very strongly that the Liberal Party has the ability to keep our country strong and I think we face significant head winds.

Meanwhile, well done to all of you – this is an absolute outstanding result.

Would a Coalition government mean an undoing of recent improvements to Aged Care?

Fiona Macdonald
Acting director, Centre For Future Work

The Labor government has fully funded all of the much-needed pay increases for aged care workers awarded by the Fair Work Commission. And they have made a commitment to fully funding the most recently awarded increases for aged care nurses to be finalised by August 2026.

Would a Dutton government walk back from this commitment? When in government the Coalition refused to commit to supporting aged care pay increases, depsite the Aged Care Royal Commission recommendation they do.

Would a Coalition government downsize the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission as part of its public sector cuts? This agency, along with it’s counterpart in the NDIS, is critical to eliminating the neglect and abuse of vulnerable people that was exposed by the Royal Commission.

A staff freeze affecting “back-office” staff in care quality and safety agencies would also mean fewer resources to stamp out unethical practices and rorting in care and support markets

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