LIVE

Sat 3 May

Australia Institute Live: Election 2025 results. As it happened.

Amy Remeikis – Chief Political Analyst

This blog, much like the 2025 election, is now closed.

Key posts

The Day's News

20.47 AEST

Jim Chalmers on Ali France

There is a bunch of things playing out there. The nuclear stuff was bad for Peter Dutton. He made an egregious error on the Sunday night of the final week, saying he would be comfortable having a nuclear reactor in his suburb when Mark Riley asked him. It was a big mistake. That is not the only thing. There are foundational issues here, I think, they lost the argument on Medicare, they lost the argument on the cost of living and Peter Dutton trailed away as the campaign wore on and we shouldn’t expect that that will be somehow different in his own community, despite the fact that as James rightly points out, he has clung on when we have been confident before.

Ali France has had three cracks at this now. There is a special place in the Labor pantheon for people who keep going again and again and again with persistence and perseverance and Ali France, if she has won Dickson, is genuinely a Labor hero

20.43 AEST

Post-Dutts clarity – Peter Dutton will lose Dickson

I can not see how he comes back from here.

Ali France will take Dickson.

20.37 AEST

Is this the first time since WWII a second term government has had a swing towards it? Maybe.

Matt Grudnoff says it is looking like the first time since World War 2 that a second term government has seen a swing towards the government.

And so far, it is looking like a swing against the Coalition in every seat.

20.35 AEST

Jim Chalmers doing a bit of early blame-game for Angus Taylor

Chalmers is having the time of his life and is trying very hard not to show it. He does not want to be seen to be gleeful, but he thinks that Dutton is done.

Bit of post-Dutts clarity all round it seems.

He is therefore doing a bit of early defence against Angus Taylor:

I think the missing part of the story we are missing talking about is Angus Taylor. So many of the issues the party have, can be traced back to Angus. I think we need to be careful as we go through this result cautiously and conservatively, as we continue to do, obviously Peter Dutton did not have a good campaign but the main alternative, Angus Taylor, arguely had a worse campaign which was at least as good, if not worse than Peter Dutton.

20.29 AEST

There are absolute cheers at the Labor HQ.

Seven and Nine called the election result ahead of Antony Green, but he calls it for the culture.

So it is done.

Minority or majority. And will Dutton lose his seat?

20.28 AEST

The Greens absolutely have not been too extreme, Osman is right on that

Greens result deeply underwhelming. The national media narrative will say it’s because they were too “extreme”. They had their most cautious parliamentary and electoral strategy in years (perhaps ever). Being too scared to actually attack Labor doesn’t help you win votes off Labor.

— Osman Faruqi (@osmanfaruqi.bsky.social) 2025-05-03T10:23:06.728Z

20.26 AEST

Antony Green makes his final call in an election – Labor has won the election

He just doesn’t know if it is minority or majority. But he is calling it.

20.24 AEST

Over on the ABC and James McGrath is talking about how the “party room supports Peter Dutton” repeatedly and how “Peter Dutton will stay leader for as long as he wants to”

Which might not be long, if he doesn’t have a seat.

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