So far the Liberals are seeing their best results in Victoria, where there is only a 0.6% swing against them.
So…that is less than ideal if you are the Coalition you would think
Sat 3 May
Australia Institute Live: Election 2025 results. As it happened.
This blog, much like the 2025 election, is now closed.
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The former state leader of the Labor Party, Rebecca White, is well ahead in Lyons. She is seeking to hold this tight seat for the ALP following the retirement of Brian Mitchell. She’s leading 62-38 2PP.
Julie Collins has overtaken independent Peter George in Franklin 4010 to 2741 on primary votes.
Jess Teesdale is well ahead of sitting Liberal Bridget Archer in Bass, 60-40 2PP.
Anne Urquhart and Mal Hingston are neck and neck in Braddon.
And independent Andrew Hastie is home and hosed in Clark. What a shock. Not!
We are seeing a swing towards Labor in Queensland – watch that state, there is more coming!
If the swing holds…well Dickson and Petrie COULD be interesting
This happened about the same time at the last election as well. I remember looking at the results and thinking – ahhhhhh, but Dutton held.
Don’t be surprised if Gilmore stays red
Labor peeps are saying there are not the swings they expected to see against Fiona Phillips in Gilmore and “things aren’t looking great for Andrew Constance”.
That shouldn’t be a surprise to people who have been following this blog – Constance hasn’t been winning hearts and minds like they thought he would – there was the whole time he tried to come to senate, then his multiple attempts to enter federal politics, including moving seats, so there isn’t a lot of love for him when it comes to the vibe.
So don’t be surprised if Gilmore stays with Labor.
A few early Teal seat numbers
Monique Ryan has an early lead over Amelia Hamer in Kooyong 42% of the primary (328 votes!) to 34%
With some conservative rural seats counted in Wannon, Dan Tehan is polling 48% of the primary vote (2983 votes) is comfortably ahead of Alex Dyson.
Zoe Daniel and Tim Wilson are neck and neck in Goldstein. Same with Ro Knox and Allegra Spender in Wentworth.
Zali Steggall is pulling more than 40% of the primary vote in Warringah. About 10% ahead.
Liberal Gisele Kapterian is about 11% ahead of Nicolette Boele in Bradfield.
Liberal senator James McGrath is taking some cope-ium on the ABC coverage as early numbers come in:
No, there are some local circumstances there and I agree with Jim about Bass and Bridget is a maverick but she is a popular maverick. She held the seat of the last election for the first time ever for a long time that either Labor or Liberal held the seat for two elections.
In Braddon, Gavin Pearce retiring, we have a very popular local member retiring and there are additional candidates at the last election. The issue there is with salmon and this is one of the seats I suspect we will not know the result tonight, we may not know it until the week after next. It will be a close seat. And the seat in Lyons shows the brutality of the Labor Party which we can never get away within the Liberal Party is that the sitting member there was tapped on the shoulder and said out of the way because we have a really good candidate in Susie Bauer and Rebecca White, who I agree is a popular member, was installed as the candidate.
Littleproud redder than Barnaby
David Littleproud has just done a live cross which has turned into a slanging match with Murray Watt.
By the end of it his face was redder than the man he replaced, Barnaby Joyce, who – as coincidence would have it – is on the panel. To be fair, Barnaby has a face full of tv makeup.
If the Nationals do as poorly as some are predicting, the Nats’ knives could be out for the leader. Again.
Which may explain why Barnaby just sat back and let Littleproud and Watt go at it.
In fact, Barnaby has “sat back” for much of the campaign. Funny that.
Surely, the Barnabus could be jump-started for a third time?
Bridget McKenzie and Kevin Hogan have both commenced discreet inquiries.
James Paterson is not having a great night
Liberal senator James Paterson isn’t feeling so confident it seems. His vibe is ready to concede.
What I can see is think Victoria will be very significant, obviously the Labor Brand is damaged in Victoria, Victorians feel very financially stressed in many seats, particular in the north-west of Melbourne in the south-east of Melbourne, they feel there is a severe infrastructure deficit and they have missed out on investment and there is the Crime hot spots all around Melbourne. That will be significant.
Equally significant will be regional New South Wales where we have some very good candidates running and I think some good contest.
And I Labor’s but a lot of focus in Queensland, noted that the Prime Minister had his most aggressive offensive visit program in Queensland, in those seats he was targeting and the campaigning in the rest of the country was more defensive.
… We will have a proper post-election review process we will very carefully consider the data and dispassionately analyse that, don’t want to get ahead of that process tonight before even Western strands are still voting, let alone meaningful votes are counted, one fact I think we can all acknowledge and recognise is the Donald Trump factor.
It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives where the Canadian Conservative leader lost 20 points over the course of a few months. I think has been a factor here, just how big a factor it will determine in a few hours’ time but I think it has been significant.
Liberal campaign spokesman James Paterson is already sounding a bit glum.
He says there’ll be a “proper post election review process” when asked about the campaign.
“There is no perfect campaign”.
He says he doesn’t want to dive into that too deeply as Western Australians are still voting.
He does say there was a “Trump factor” and points to Canada.
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