The Welcome to Country ceremony is underway at Parliament House.

Ngunnawal elder Aunty Violet Sheridan is delivering the welcome:

To walk on Ngunnawal country is to accept responsibilities. It is not just about being here. It is about caring for this land. The waters and all living things as my ancestors have done for thousands of generations.

When we care for country, we pay respect for those who came before us and ensure that their legacy continues. Ngunnawal country is alive. It lives in our stories, our ceremonies, our language and our connections to this land.

It carries forward by our elders. Our young ones and all who walk with us. It is a culture of strength, of resilience and of deep wisdom. As part of this welcome I offer you spiritual protection and safe passage.

May you all walk gently, listen and carry the spirit of this country with you. May your journey on Ngunnawal country be of understanding, respect and shared purpose.

Guided by the values of care, connection and community, I would like to pay my respects to elders past and present and emerging and extend that respect to all First Nations people here this morning. I would also like to acknowledge all the non-indigenous people here as well. In keeping in the spirit of friendship and reconciliation, it gives me great pleasure to welcome you all here once again to Ngunnawal country.

New analysis by The Australia Institute reveals that the vast majority of the money Australians lose on poker machines each year is money they simply cannot afford to lose.

According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, one-third of Australian adults use poker machines at least once a year. Excluding Western Australia, where pokies are banned outside of Perth Casino, that equates to 6.6 million people who, between them, lose around $13 billion a year, at an average of more than $1,950 each. 

Based on an updated version of the most detailed study of gambling in Australia, the amount an average gambler can afford to lose on poker machines is $301 per year, known as their “low-risk gambling limit”.

For every dollar a gambler loses over that low-risk limit, the risk increases.

Losing more means people who use the pokies have less to spend on other recreational or social activities. But for those who gamble much more, the losses can be devastating. 

“Poker machines are making a killing from problem gamblers,” said Skye Predavec, Anne Kantor Fellow at The Australia Institute and author of the analysis. 

“If the vast majority of poker machine profits come from risky gambling rather than those who gamble responsibly, it’s time politicians treated the industry in line with the harm it causes.

“The data does not lie. There are Australians who are losing vast sums of money on poker machines who cannot afford to.

“This can have a terrible impact on their personal finances, health, work and wellbeing, which, in turn, impacts families and relationships.”

The Trump administration is more concerned with the quality of trade agreements than their timing, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said ahead of an August 1 deadline for nations to secure trade deals or face steep tariffs.

“We’re not going to rush for the sake of doing deals,” Bessent told US broadcaster CNBC.

Asked whether the deadline could be extended for countries engaged in productive talks with Washington, Bessent said US President Donald Trump would decide.

“We’ll see what the president wants to do. But again, if we somehow boomerang back to the August 1 tariff, I would think that a higher tariff level will put more pressure on those countries to come with better agreements,” he said.

Trump has upended the global economy with a trade war that has targeted most US trading partners, but his administration has fallen far short of its plan to clinch deals with dozens of countries. 

Negotiations with India, the European Union, Japan, and others have proven more trying than expected. 

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Trump could discuss trade when he meets with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr at the White House on Tuesday.

She said the Trump administration remained engaged with nations around the world and could announce more trade deals or send more letters notifying countries of the tariff rate they faced before August 1, but gave no details.

Leavitt’s comments came as European Union diplomats said they were exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures against the US, given fading prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington.

An increasing number of EU members, including Germany, are now considering using “anti-coercion” measures that would let the bloc target US services or curb access to public tenders in the absence of a deal, diplomats said.

“The negotiations over the level of tariffs are currently very intense,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told a press conference. “The Americans are quite clearly not willing to agree to a symmetrical tariff arrangement.”

On China, Bessent said there would be “talks in the very near future”.

“I think trade is in a good place, and I think, now we can start talking about other things. The Chinese, unfortunately … are very large purchasers of sanctioned Iranian oil, sanctioned Russian oil,” he said.

“We could also discuss the elephant in the room, which is this great rebalancing that the Chinese need to do.” US officials have long complained about China’s overcapacity in various manufacturing sectors, including steel.

Bessent told CNBC he would encourage Europe to follow the United States if it implements secondary tariffs on Russia.

The Treasury chief, who returned from a visit to Japan on Sunday, said the administration was less concerned with the Asian nation’s domestic politics than with getting the best deal for Americans. 

Japan’s chief tariff negotiator departed for trade talks in Washington on Monday morning, his eighth visit in three months, after the ruling coalition of Japanese Premier Shigeru Ishiba suffered a bruising defeat in upper house elections shaped in part by voter frustration over US tariffs.

Indian trade negotiators returned to New Delhi after almost a week of talks in Washington, but officials were losing hope of signing an interim trade deal before the August 1 deadline, government sources said. 

You can also follow along with the house proceedings with the good folk who keep the house of reps running. Official deets are below:

Brace yourself – Jim Chalmers has fallen victim to the treasurer’s curse of walking social media videos.

Unlike Josh Frydenberg, who walked in these videos like an AI trying to pass it off as human (and failing – apparently walking and talking in front of a camera is very hard) Chalmers at least manages to pass as a person. Then again, the bar is very low.

So the 48th parliament will get underway at 9am. There will be the usual canons welcoming the parliament’s return and then a smoking ceremony as part of the Welcome to Country.

The house of representatives chamber won’t open until 10.30am.

The traditional church service ahead of parliament sitting has concluded and Anthony Albanese is sticking to the message on the church steps:

Every day is an opportunity to deliver for Australians and this week, we will have legislation to do that but, of course, already on July 1, so many of our commitments were met – the increase in people’s wages, the increased support for energy bill relief, or the range of measures that came in on July 1 that will make a practical difference to people’s lives. We’ll continue to work hard each and every day in the interests of Australians.

Sussan Ley also had her lines:

It’s an opportunity for us to reflect, with humility, on the task we have as representatives, sent here to Canberra to work hard for the people in communities across this country who are counting on us. Now, I and my team will always put the interests of the Australian people, hard-working Australians, front and centre, as we get very busy in the building just over here in just a few short hours. We will be constructive where we can.

The Government presents legislation that we can agree with and that we can work with them on, that’s what we will do and I want to use the upcoming legislation on childcare that will prevent criminals accessing childcare services across Australia. I’m determined that it does that. We’re happy to be constructive with the Government. But I and my team will be critical where we need to be and we won’t hesitate to hold the government to account.

We will also get the RBA board meeting minutes today which means we will see what they discussed when they decided not to cut interest rates at the last meeting.

It mostly seems because the board is worried about how many Australians have jobs. Which seems insane, except when you remember that there are a large cohort of economists who believe that tackling inflation relies on a certain cohort of Australians not having jobs. (They are literally taking one for Team Australia and we reward them with below the poverty line payments and mutual obligations which give billions to private job agencies for very little return – but at great cost for those forced to undertake what can be very demeaning tasks).

The thing is, Australia has managed to lower inflation while also having lower unemployment. And there has been no wage-price spiral (where lower unemployment drives wages so high inflation increases and then wages increase to match inflation etc etc etc) despite the never ending warnings from the RBA that there COULD be an issue.

So the economy is slowing down, unemployment in the last ABS update increased but the RBA is waiting for…..something. The minutes will give some insight into what.

South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas has spoken to the Nine network this morning about the federal government’s $14m to address the algal bloom (which will be matched by the state) and says:

I think it’s important for people to realise this is genuinely an unprecedented event. We’ve never seen anything like this in our country before. We’ve never seen an algal bloom of this scale doing this much damage, particularly close to a metropolitan coastline. So it’s a big deal, and I’m very grateful the federal government came to the fore. 

I mean, from the state government’s perspective, I think it is important that we do acknowledge this is a natural disaster. I don’t think we should be getting caught up in weasel words. It’s a it’s a natural disaster. It’s no different to when we see a flood or a fire.

Except, of course, that this isn’t something we’ve seen before, and I think it’s important we remain vigilant and continue to respond. Certainly as the science evolves. And we seem to learn more about this every single day that goes by.

Environment minister Murray Watt has committed $14m in funding to help South Australia address the algal bloom that has devastated marine life and beaches. The algae is most likely a direct result of climate change – scientists were hoping the colder water that comes with winter would be enough to kill off the bloom which flourishes in warmer water, but that didn’t eventuate and the bloom spread, suffocating marine animals big and small. That’s not just impacted the environment, but also the local economy which has built up around the sea.

Watt hasn’t triggered the national disaster response though – that is mostly for technical reasons – the legislation has particular definitions around it and the bloom doesn’t meet the definition.

That’s another issue we will have to face with climate change – our existing definitions don’t really apply for what is coming.