Given that we will be hearing a lot about the size of the public service this election (because the Coalition is set on slashing it again) it might be worth having a look at the actual numbers. (Again)

This table is from the Australian Public Service Commission

You may notice that as a percentage of population, even with the increased hirings (to replace the ‘shadow’ public service the Morrison government hired through the private sector), the public service is still lower than it was in June 2008 and June 2012.

Cutting the public service to “save money” is like me saying I’m going to save money by cutting my grocery spend, and then dining out for every meal. So yeah, I am only spending $50 a week at the supermarket, but I’m spending $400 a week eating out.

Cutting the public service only benefits the private sector.

Jane Hume, who would be the finance minister in a future Coalition government, was asked about the 36,000 public servants the Coalition has all but pledged to cut.

She didn’t commit to a number, but said the Coalition would focus on ‘wasteful spending’.

What does that mean?

We have said from the very beginning that we will make sure that we guarantee essential services, that we guarantee those frontline workers*.

But let’s face it, there has been such an extraordinary growth, an extraordinary bloat in the
public service under this government that something has got to give because it is continually costing more and more.

On top of that, they’ve paid these new public servants and the existing ones an 11% pay rise. Now that is entirely unsustainable, that’s not even accounted for appropriately in the Budget. The Budget shows that, the MYEFO Budget shows that public sector wages are flat lining**.

But here’s the deal. This growth in the public service hasn’t actually corresponded with better
public services. So, for instance, the size of the Health Department has grown around 40%, yet bulk billing rates have collapsed***.

The size of the Energy and Environment portfolio has nearly doubled and yet emissions have gone up and environmental approval times have blown out****.

Services Australia…has seen a massive increase and yet we have seen a blow-out in the time it takes to get an aged pension five times as long to get a low income card. If you ring the Parenting and Families helpline you spend an hour on hold*****.

*Frontline services don’t work without people in the back end doing the work

**Could that be because of the freezes the Coalition had on the public service for almost a decade taking more than three years to address?

***The public service does not set bulk billing rates. This point makes exactly zero sense.

****The public service does not set energy policy. The public service only enacts the policies set by the government/parliament.

*****Do you think that maybe the answer then, would be MORE people to deal with the increased demand? Given that earlier Hume said that economics was still ‘supply and demand’ perhaps if the demand is growing, then maybe the answer is MORE people to address it?

The Coalition’s Jane Hume has already said the opposition won’t oppose the extension of the energy relief package, but also doesn’t support the policy.

So that’s a great line to take. It’s the next level ‘bitch and fold’ (where a political party bitches about a policy and talks it down, but then folds and supports it in the parliament), as Hume unsuccessfully tries to walk the line between ‘we support this’ and ‘we wish we didn’t have to support this’.

She told Sky News on Sunday:

The Coalition will not stand in the way of much needed relief from these high electricity prices, high gas prices that are caused by Labor’s failed policies. You know, there’s over 130,000 Australians now on financial hardship packages with their energy companies. But let’s face it, this is now what was supposed to be a temporary feature of Labor’s budget has now turned into a permanent feature of Labor budgets because of their failed energy policies. Australians have paid the price for these.

So what is the Coalition’s plan?

We’ve said that we will immediately fast track more gas into the system. Now it’s going to take at
least a year to get that through because as we know, power prices are forecast to increase over the next 12 months. That’s why we won’t stand in the way of Labor’s subsidy for their failed policies, because it’s going to take some time to get coalition policies working into the system. We’ll get gas immediately into the system as fast as we can to bring down prices sustainably.

But economics hasn’t changed. It’s still a function of demand and supply. We need to make sure that we get more supply of gas into the system to bring prices down, but in the long term, we need to stabilise our grid, make sure that we have a clean energy system and when coal fired power stations retire, that’s when we’ll replace them with zero emissions nuclear energy.

Labor has also committed to gas (the major parties are hand in hand when it comes to that) but while Labor is on the renewables track, the Coalition is holding on to the fantasy that it will bring nuclear energy to Australia. Which is not a plan, it is a distraction to keep fossil fuels in the grid for longer.

So far, we know that there are forecast deficits for the foreseeable future, and that is where most of the focus has been.

That’s for a variety of reasons – Australia’s largest population group (until millennials), baby boomers, is beginning to transition into the next season of life, which will require more care. Demand for the NDIS is also forecast to grow and then there are things like AUKUS, which is hundreds of billions of dollars for…maybe the use of a submarine or two. At least at this stage. It’s a great deal for the US – Australia pays to help build American shipyards to build the submarines, but as we know, even before the Trump administration and Trump’s recent comments about “pared down submarines” for “allies” that “might not always be allies”, America is behind in it’s own submarine builds. And anyone with two brain cells rubbing together could tell you that if America has to choose between its own capability and another nation’s, it is choosing itself. Every. Single. Time. No matter who is in charge.

It is part of the reason we should be having a massive rethink of the whole strategic relationship. But so far, neither major party is willing to stand up (although the Coalition is promising to kowtow further than Labor, with Dutton pledging to head to the States to meet Trump as one of his first priorities if he wins government.)

We also know there is going to be an extension of the energy rebate – $150 divided across the final two quarters of 2025 (it was due to expire at the end of the financial year).

Beyond that, expect infrastructure spending targeted at individual electorates and a hell of a lot of ‘decisions taken, but not yet announced’ which is a fancy way of saying ‘election war chest’.

Hello and welcome back to Australia Institute Live.

We are running this little blog ahead of the parliament session tomorrow – when the budget will also be handed down – to help work out any further bugs, but also because we are bracing for a lot of political news.

Both Labor and the Coalition see this as their last chance to make an impact ahead of the election campaign. Anthony Albanese is expected to head to Govermment House this weekend to ask for the 47th parliament to be dissolved and an election called, which means it is all systems go.

But before then, we have a little pesky annual event called the budget to be delivered. Jim Chalmers did his annual pre-budget interviews yesterday at the same time the budget was being printed (every major media outlet is offered a few minutes with the treasurer, but the questions all tend to be the same and Chalmers is an absolute expert at sticking to a line, so don’t expect too much variation in the stories) which is why everyone is talking about the deficit.

As previewed for the last couple of years – going back to the Morrison government – the budget will be in the red for some time to come. Given how much political parties worry about deficits (they aren’t necessarily bad, if it means governments are spending money on YOU), you could wonder about it sparking a rethink on AUKUS. Particularly in this climate. But no. No, we are baked in to that relationship apparently, because everyone is too afraid to take a stand.

We’ll cover all the pre-budget news off as the day unfolds, as long as point you in the direction of some research and facts. Thank you for coming along for the ride. I’ve got the second coffee on and a piece of banana cake for breakfast.

Ready?

Let’s get into it.