Hello and welcome back to the mid-week parliament sitting, which also happens to be the day of the Midwinter Ball. What is that? Well, if you don’t know – congratulations! What is it like having a life?

The Midwinter Ball is a parliament event hosted by the press gallery (of which I am a member but having been forced to attend by work previously, would rather spend my evening cleaning the toe jam from an entire retirement village than attend again). It started in 2000 and raises money for charity, with MPs having to be invited to the ball by news networks or those who have been deemed special enough unicorns to buy a table. The event is held in the parliament Great Hall and is limited to 640 people – people have to apply for a table/tickets and then have that application approved by the press gallery ball committee. Then it is your usual work dinner, but worse – the prime minister and opposition leader give a speech, there is a very torturous package of journalist bloopers shown, mostly featuring the friends of those who have put it together, occasionally some comedy and then some dancing. It goes for hours and in this time of falling trust in media is probably something that should be retired, given its main feature is journalists cavorting with the power they are meant to be holding to account.

Political journalist legend Laurie Oakes never went, so he could report on it. You may remember a few things leaking out at times – most memorably in modern history, the Donald Trump impression Malcolm Turnbull did as part of his speech. After that there was a very big debate about what should be reported and what shouldn’t be reported, which memorably included some journalists complaining they should be allowed “at least one night off” which, yes, of course – but not when you are in a room full of lobbyists, corporate titans and politicians. The end result was the speeches from the leaders are now broadcast, and there are still some who complain that has taken the ‘fun’ out of the night because the leaders are more circumspect in what they say.

The ball has come under fire for accepting sponsorship from fossil fuel companies, and also the big banks (around the time of the banking royal commission) and given that journalists are supposed to be reporting without fear or favour on all these industries, and people, the idea of the ball is not just dated, it is also impacting people’s trust in the media. All the big bosses from the media companies come to Canberra for the evening, but it is mostly for the access – there is time during the ball for chats, either with the minister/shadow minister invited at your table, or during the break in entertainment/speeches/hosting which is set aside for mingling. And that is also something the lobbyists/corporate heads etc can take advantage of. So for an industry which literally reports on payment for access, and the ridiculous per-head events political parties host for fundraising, holding one yourself, even if it is for charity seems…icky.

So that is your lesson in the Midwinter Ball. It will mean that the parliament tries to keep all its business in the daylight hours so there is time for getting ready for the evening event.

Which is where we will be – covering the parliament in the daylight hours and anything else that might happen. There is still the ongoing fallout from the decision to expel the Iranian ambassador (and shuttering our own embassy in Iran) after ASIO reported what it said was a direct link between Iran and anti-Semitic attacks in Australia. Plus the US continues to be unhinged, with most of the world’s major postal services shutting down deliveries (of parcels) to the States, because the US is trying to force senders to pay the tariff on goods they are sending to customers/family in the states and then apply to the US to have those tariffs reimbursed. The US decision was meant to target all those Shien and Temu hauls social media is full off (it’s aimed at China e-commerce) but it has captured everyone and means that any small business selling their product is caught up in it. (As well as loved ones sending gifts). Rather than deal with the mess, Australia Post and others have just suspended sending packages. The Liberal MP Tim Wilson thinks this is because Anthony Albanese hasn’t had a meeting with Donald Trump for…reasons. Mostly stupid ones.

Oh and Trump tried and failed to sack the deputy governor of the US Fed (the American version of the RBA) so that is bound to have very minimal impacts on world markets (sarcasm).

So if you are feeling up to it, join along as we cover the parliamentary day, along with the fact checks and explainers where necessary. You have Amy Remeikis with you (and it is at least a four coffee morning) so I hope you will stick around.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

In more news that everything it totally fine and he isn’t worried about anything at all, David Littleproud has spoken to Sky News to say the Australian article where Barnaby Joyce endorses Michael McCormack for leader (Joyce toppled McCormack) and the pair pose like they are at a CWA fundraiser (minus scones) ain’t no thang.

Littleproud has long had to battle allegations of arrogance (from within his own party and also anyone who has had to speak to him) and in a totally normal response says:

I’m not arrogant because I respect the position I’ve got.

He’s still D-Little from the block.

For those looking for a bit of good news this morning, here is what Angus Taylor looked like at the Coalition’s joint party room meeting, as seen through Mike Bowers’ lens:

Meanwhile, leader Sussan Ley wants the party room to know that everything is just fine actually:

AB asks I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere that if their numbers fell below a certain threshold in the Senate (which would happen with Perin Davey losing her spot), the Nationals would lose out on some staffing or similar there as well – could have been party status, if I remember rightly?

Well, they are going to lose out on staffing now anyway as they are no longer the opposition. So if the Liberals are the opposition and the Nats are not part of that, they lose staff (they’ll only have electoral staff like every other backbencher) and the Nats who were in the shadow ministry lose the 25% base top up.

And the Nats state parties aren’t known for paying their affiliation fees, so unlike the Greens, the party doesn’t have a lot of money to dip into for extra staff etc.

Which means National ‘spokespeople’ will be going it largely alone with no extra resources.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

Andrew Bolt is now having a coronary over the Greens, so I hope Adam Bandt and co are having a drink in celebration.

He is OUTRAGED that Labor won’t put them last, but demanded the Liberals put One Nation last.

I don’t know…racism and xenophobia and whatever else it is PHON is offering up these days is probably worse than saying everyone deserves an affordable home and landlords shouldn’t be able to ruin tenants lives and also wouldn’t dental in Medicare be great, and also genocide is bad – but what would we know. We don’t live in a multi-million dollar property complete with a built in studio so we never have to worry ourselves with commuting to work.

But like a true diva, Bolt did announce his change in circumstances in very dramatic fashion – he said he was quitting Melbourne and moving to the ‘bush’ in 2020 – until it was revealed the bush was the Mornington Pennisula.

Hello and welcome to US servitude day, where everyone becomes convinced that Donald Trump applying tariffs to goods his nation imports to prove a non-existence points somehow means we all just have to kowtow to him a little harder.

Trump is calling it ‘liberation’ day. The announcements will start coming in around 7am Australian time and there are some feverish fingers on keyboards and very agitated voices already.

So first, let’s take a look at what Australia exports to the United States, and what could therefore have tariffs applied to it under whatever Trump’s administration announces.

Here are the top 12 exports to the US, according to Trading Economics

It is pharmaceutical products which have most people worried, given the issues American drug giants have had with Australia’s PBS (which subsidises the cost of certain medicines in Australia) over the years.

But the Trump administration have also had issues with Australia’s biosecurity conditions for meat and poultry imports, as well as the News Media Bargaining Code (which has the tech bro oligarchs all up in arms). There is sort of a unity ticket between Albanese and Dutton on not compromising on those three areas, given the importance of the PBS and Australia’s own agricultural industry. The News Media Bargaining Code is probably one of the only areas where Murdoch diverges from Trump on policies, mostly because News Corp is a beneficiary. So there is some united rah-rah, although that hasn’t stopped Dutton from attacking Albanese over Australia being included in the global tariff assault Trump is inflicting on friend and foe alike – even though there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to what he is doing.

Australia imports much more from the US than it exports. We are, as they say in the global economic game, in a trade deficit with the United States and have been since Harry S Truman was president.

How much is this going to matter? Well it matters that Australia’s “exceptional friend” the United States is applying trade tariffs to allies, which has all the hallmarks of starting a global trade war, because of ideological issues he has with free trade and the belief that no one can move without America.

But as has been pointed out time and time again, nations have begun looking elsewhere for their trade arrangements pretty much since the first Trump presidency, when he first went on a tariff bender, and that has seen China (the original target of Trump’s tariffs) benefit. In fact, trade started to deviate away from the US during the global financial crisis, when American markets weren’t looking too crash hot and many nations have found other homes for their products (Mexico being an exception).

So again, it is more about the wider issues of what does this mean for Australia’s relationship with the US, given the strategic ties governments from both the Coalition and Labor have made with the US and how our leaders now handle that (and everything else that is coming) given the Trump take over of American institutions and increasing authoritarian crack downs on the US population?

We probably won’t get the answers we should today, but we should hope that we at least start getting the questions.

You’ve got the entire Australia Institute brains trust with you to help guide you through the day – and me, Amy Remeikis at the helm. It is going to be at least a six coffee day. And it’s Thursday. The worst day of the week even without all of this.

May Dolly help us all.

Ready? Let’s get into it.

Ed Husic is asked this question at the press club and responds with”

Just asking the question itself and with the possible consequence shows how challenging the environment is before us, I appreciate that is a massive understatement.

If we start down this path, it takes years, if not decades to unpick. We have an opportunity to sidestep all that work that will be required. The reason I say that is because you have witnessed, as we all have in the last 24 hours, the dialogue between our Prime Minister and the US President on this issue with respect to steel and aluminium.

There has been an agreement to consider what, if at all, should be effecting our country. We have been a steadfast ally of the US for generations, our people have fought side-by-side. We forge very close relationships. We do important strategic work together and investments in defence come with the closeness of those relationships. That is really important. The trade surplus we have with the US is factually, in a concrete way very important. These are the things we will work through with the US. It is way too early for us to be engaged in speculation, though I appreciate what drives your question. We will work through these issues.

The reality is, there are only a couple of places in the world that make aluminium. Australia is one, Canada is the other. The others are Russia, China and the Middle East. I reckon a country that is a strong ally, that has a strong relationship with the US and that is across from the Pacific and that has been providing product that has been in high demand on the west coast, there is a lot of compelling reasons why we can work together without the imposition of tariffs.

Election speculation is going to dominate the parliamentary sitting and will until a date is set. The date isn’t that important – we know we are in a faux election campaign, and we know that the election has to be held by mid-May. The most likely dates are May 3 or May 10, but truly – it doesn’t matter. The election campaign began almost as soon as the year ticked over to 2025 and it won’t slow down just because a date is called.

But before we get there, there is a couple of parliament sittings (and a budget!) to get through.

This sitting will deal with the stronger hate crime laws the government previewed last week, in response to anti-Semitic attacks. Labor will also move to replace the child care activity test with guaranteed access to childcare at least three days a week as part of its wider plan to make childcare universal (they will need to win a couple more elections for that to happen). That’s been fast tracked – Labor wants to make childcare one of its points of difference at the next election.

And there are still the nature positive laws to get through. Even though Labor doesn’t want to negotiate with the Greens to change what they have put forward (at this stage).

Here is a quick overview of what the Institute sees as some of the issues with the bill: